I'm not sure it's that cut and dry. There was no such thing as a perfect fighter, and to a large extent the others were doing missions they weren't fully suited for either - P-47 was a high altitude fighter but they were using it for CAS. P-38 too as well to some extent. Spitfire was an interceptor but they were using it for escort some times. P-51 was a long range fighter but was being used as an interceptor.
I think if the War Dept thought they were going to get a good fighter out of a P-40Q I think they probably would have gone for it. Lack of sufficient oxygen tanks or external tank fittings are not exactly insurmountable design flaws. I think the P-63 was just too short ranged to be of much of any use (except to the Russians). If they trusted Curtiss (and if the prototypes hadn't crashed) I think they may have produced it. But given the track record at Curtiss (
including making bad engines) I think it may have been a bad bet. And so did they!
S
Schweik - I find my self arguing when I agree much of what you post, That said, as you said, the AAF was sending out CP's from 1937 through 1940 for a War Plan Requirement that contemplated Defense of the United States - not strategic warfare fought outside US and Territories. The AAF got its nose under the tent with the B-17 based on Coastal Defense capability which was a lot more agile than aircraft carriers to maneuver in position of a foreign power (i.e. Japan) known to the WPD to be capable or potentially capable of projecting power to attack the US (Japan, UK) without regard to friendly/not friendly.
The CP's for Interceptors included the 'heavy' (P-38) and 'Lite' (P-39) - bot to be equipped with turbos to support the in-line engine technology of the time And carry 37mm cannon as primary anti bomber armament.
It was well known by several chief AAC architects (notably Spaatz) that a S/E fighter could not be developed as a long range fighter (escort or otherwise) capable of supporting WP Objectives. It wasn't until Spring 1939 that multi place fighter CP-618 (leading to P-61) which focused on t/e long range fighter aircraft and single place fighter CP-616 (NAA not invited) which led to XP-46, XP-47 and DS-312A - but still pointing toward Interceptors, not general purpose fighters for all altitudes.
When Arnold appointed a Special Board (Kilner Board) to examine R&D priorities in May, the Board came back several months later with a. Better Liquid Cooled Engines, 2.) Improved fire control systems for bomber defense, and 3.) Fighter to rank with Best in the World. Arnold also appointed the Emmons Board to perform further review on Fighter requirements. Emmons Board came back with "development of an escort fighter capable of 1500 mile range" as Number 4 - Arnold moved it to number 1.) as Spaatz and Eaker submitted reports recounting RAF difficulties in prosecuting Daylight bombing against both the Bf 110 and Bf 109, Arnold REMAINED the visionary - and the first to ask "what if the bomber can not survive, unescorted, over enemy held targets".
Note: Mustang contract for NA-73 in secret discussion with BPC in direct conflict with orders from AAC Material Command that same month.
The point of the 'blah, blah, blah' above - is that over the next several months, a.) the P-39 was believed to be inferior to the existing Bf 109 and Spitfire and the shock of the A6M had not occurred, b.) the P-38 was ordered by Brits w/o turbos and in testing which led to cancellation due to poor performance and c.) the P-40 arrived in Britain and France with questionable performance comparisons to Bf 109 and Spitfire.
As you stated, Curtiss and Bell greatly overstated performance and the follow-on development fighters were also disappointing. The Close Air Support acolytes still wedded to the notion that Army Aviation should continue to increase battlefield effectiveness were feeling greatly under-appreciated by Material Command and began to place great pressure on suitable high speed/high capability (plus bomb load/maneuverability and range (for Recon)
Both the P-39 and P-40 were small airframes, no easy growth potential for internal fuel or external loads, deemed ok as interim solutions, but neither the P-63 nor P-40Q offered anything near a complete check list of CAS requirements. All this pressure, combined with knowledge of anticipated Merlin 61 capability unfolding in fall/winter 1941 growing awareness outside Material Command of Mustang capability, desire by Arnold to find a role for the Mustang in early 1942 - killed the future of P-63 and P-40Q - before they could get traction. The interceptor role of the P-63 and possibly the P-40Q was a possibility IMO) but by that time RANGE was deemed priority 1 as an outcome of Arnold Conference in February 1942.
Note that Arnold was Not aware that the P-38E had been modified to carry external ferry tanks of 165 and 330 gallons. At the time of the Fighter conference, however, he did know that the Mustang I had greater range and cruise speed with internal fuel than the P-38E with only internal fuel. It also had 1500 mi range capability with the auxiliary tank kits replacing wing guns/ammo belts.