Was a Dunkirk-like evacuation of Singapore possible?

[Admiral Beez]

Here's the list of British convoys to Singapore The Singapore-convoys

Between Jan 3 and Feb 5, 1942 ten convoys arrived at Singapore carrying over 30,000 troops. Had Churchill wanted to, could a Dunkirk evacuation be possible? Send those convoys with empty troopships and it seems doable. The troops need only be shipped to Burma or Calcutta, ideally the latter so to avoid being cut off when Rangoon falls. Though the Australians may want their boys sent home.

Now, I know this would be a disaster for British prestige and for respect from Washington as their own troops hold out at Corregidor, but those evacuated British and CW troops can fight again, likely defending India.

So, that aside, how do we execute this evacuation? And, this being an aviation forum, we need the RAF to play an important role. Someone has to hold the rear guard, and it can't just be the Indians as they'll rightfully revolt back in India. Perhaps command and weapons can be turned over to the Malays and Chinese? And the convoys need protection, perhaps from the RAF on Sumatra and HMS Indomitable (Jan 27th she was off Sumatra)?

Churchill had already authorized the mass retreats from both Dunkirk (June 1940, 338,000 troops evacuated) and Greece (June 1941, 51,000 troops evacuated). A similarly sized evacuation to India shouldn't doom his government. For the rearguard tasked with fighting to the end in Singapore, I can think of no better commander than the useless Percival.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I recommend you read "Singapore's Dunkirk". With the loss of Force Z there was no naval force capable of protecting the troopships. Also, it requires foreknowledge that Singapore would fall. As you observe, reinforcements were still arriving into early Feb 1941, little more than 10 days before the surrender.

If unescorted troop ships can arrive and depart from Singapore up to the end, I see no reason that empty ships couldn't have the same success.

On Jan 27th Wavell granted Percival permission to abandon Malaya and to retreat to Singapore. Once Malaya had fallen, the campaign was lost, and sending reinforcements to Singapore now was a total waste, akin to sending reinforcements to Hong Kong a few days before its Christmas Day surrender. Instead Wavell should have organized an evacuation from Singapore. Again, if the unescorted troop ships could make to Singapore, empty ones can too.

 

[buffnut453]

If unescorted troop ships can arrive and depart from Singapore up to the end, I see no reason that empty ships couldn't have the same success.

The arriving convoys were under air cover throughout the period they were in range of Singapore. Again, read the book and find out what happened to the ships that left Singapore. A great many of them encountered disaster.

On Jan 27th Wavell granted Percival permission to abandon Malaya and to retreat to Singapore. Once Malaya had fallen, the campaign was lost, and sending reinforcements to Singapore now was a total waste, akin to sending reinforcements to Hong Kong a few days before its Christmas Day surrender. Instead Wavell should have organized an evacuation from Singapore. Again, if the unescorted troop ships could make to Singapore, empty ones can too.

Again, you're applying the retrospectroscope. The loss of Singapore was by no means a foregone conclusion. As noted in a previous post, the Japanese were running dangerously short of ammunition and the logistics chain stretched all the way back to Singora. Few people outside Singapore ever considered that Japan would beat a "first rate adversary". The problem is that the British forces in Malaya and Singapore were far from being first rate.

 

[Kevin J]

Here's the list of British convoys to Singapore The Singapore-convoys

Between Jan 3 and Feb 5, 1942 ten convoys arrived at Singapore carrying over 30,000 troops. Had Churchill wanted to, could a Dunkirk evacuation be possible? Send those convoys with empty troopships and it seems doable. The troops need only be shipped to Burma or Calcutta, ideally the latter so to avoid being cut off when Rangoon falls. Though the Australians may want their boys sent home.

Now, I know this would be a disaster for British prestige and for respect from Washington as their own troops hold out at Corregidor, but those evacuated British and CW troops can fight again, likely defending India.

So, that aside, how do we execute this evacuation? And, this being an aviation forum, we need the RAF to play an important role. Someone has to hold the rear guard, and it can't just be the Indians as they'll rightfully revolt back in India. Perhaps command and weapons can be turned over to the Malays and Chinese? And the convoys need protection, perhaps from the RAF on Sumatra and HMS Indomitable (Jan 27th she was off Sumatra)?

Churchill had already authorized the mass retreats from both Dunkirk (June 1940, 338,000 troops evacuated) and Greece (June 1941, 51,000 troops evacuated). A similarly sized evacuation to India shouldn't doom his government. For the rearguard tasked with fighting to the end in Singapore, I can think of no better commander than the useless Percival.

If Percival had engaged in a fighting withdrawal to Kuala Lumpur from Kota Bharu then maybe he would have had the same success as the Australian troops on the Kokoda trail. Penang needed to be fortified and held because it was a destroyer base, but it had no rada,r so scuttle Repulse in shallow waters in Penang Harbour to provide the radar and fire support, then hold.

 

[wuzak]

Between Jan 3 and Feb 5, 1942 ten convoys arrived at Singapore carrying over 30,000 troops. Had Churchill wanted to, could a Dunkirk evacuation be possible? Send those convoys with empty troopships and it seems doable. The troops need only be shipped to Burma or Calcutta, ideally the latter so to avoid being cut off when Rangoon falls. Though the Australians may want their boys sent home.

Isn't distance an issue?

Singapore to Rangoon is 2,000km+. Dunkirk to Dover is 75km.

And the fact that there was air support for withdrawal from Dunkirk. Would there be for Singapore?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Penang needed to be fortified and held because it was a destroyer base, but it had no radar so scuttle Repulse in shallow waters in Penang Harbour to provide the radar and fire support, then hold.

I knew you'd come in with Penang and a beached capital ship. Can we throw in a squadron of Martin-Baker MB2 floatplane fighters?

We're discussing the evacuation of Singapore in Jan-Feb 1942. Repulse was sunk in Dec 1941, she's gone. Try to stay on topic......

 

[Admiral Beez]

Isn't distance an issue?

Singapore to Rangoon is 2,000km+. Dunkirk to Dover is 75km.

The route is tricky too. Malacca Straight would require sailing right past Japan's air bases in Malaya. I'd like to know the routes of the British convoys that arrived in mid to late Jan and Feb. Perhaps they came via the Java Sea. Once the troopships make it into open water the distance is less important, provided they have fuel, food and water.

And the fact that there was air support for withdrawal from Dunkirk. Would there be for Singapore?

HMS Indomitable was off Singapore in late January 1942. I wouldn't put her too close to Malaya, but Indomitable and the last of the RAF at Singapore could cover the convoys.

 

[Kevin J]

I knew you'd come in with Penang and a beached capital ship. Can we throw in a squadron of Martin-Baker MB2 floatplane fighters?

We're discussing the evacuation of Singapore in Jan-Feb 1942. Repulse was sunk in Dec 1941, she's gone. Try to stay on topic......

Hmm, I'd never thought of using MB2 floatplane fighters. I'll try and work some into the story although Spitfire Vb float plane fighters would be better late 1941. You need to hold Penang, not evacuate it. If the Japanese get to Singapore it's too late. You need to hold Malacca too. So the Straits Settlements would all become fortress cities.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK DISCUSSION

"Few people outside Singapore ever considered that Japan would beat a "first rate adversary". The problem is that the British forces in Malaya and Singapore were far from being first rate.": Buffnut453 got it right.
History happened.
Get over it.

 

[Freebird]

so scuttle Repulse in shallow waters in Penang Harbour to provide the radar and fire support, then hold.

Repulse was one of the few fast capital ships available, (one of four) so scuttling it would be madness to destroy it.

 

[Kevin J]

Repulse was one of the few fast capital ships available, (one of four) so scuttling it would be madness to destroy it.

It needs naval guns to defend Penang plus a radar set. I suppose there's always HMS Centurion?

 

[Admiral Beez]

It needs naval guns to defend Penang plus a radar set. I suppose there's always HMS Centurion?

Again, how does this support the evacuation of Singapore in Feb 1942?

I suggest you have an unhealthy obsession with Penang, with 21 posts, almost all of them off topic tangential utterances. You ok Kevin? Search results for query: Penang

 

[Admiral Beez]

Again, you're applying the retrospectroscope. The loss of Singapore was by no means a foregone conclusion.

All what'if is an exercise in hindsight, but with water running out and no relief coming, I have to think by early Feb when the final convoys were arriving that the loss of Singapore was a dawning possibility.

History happened.

I understand, but unlike our Monday QB, I'm not asking what should have happened, but what could have happened. If Churchill had ordered a Dunkirk or Greece like evacuation of Singapore in early February 1942 when any misconceptions of Japanese capabilities are now shattered, how do we make it happen? Perhaps we can't or won't evacutate combat soldiers, but why not load up those ships with wounded, non-essential military personnel and civilians?

But perhaps we've hit that contrarian wall found in "what if" discussion, where all we can post is why something shouldn't, wouldn't or couldn't have occurred. If so I'm okay with that, let's shut this one down - we've got a lot of other interesting topics on the go.

 

[Kevin J]

Again, how does this support the evacuation of Singapore in Feb 1942?

I suggest you have an unhealthy obsession with Penang, with 21 posts, almost all of them off topic tangential utterances. You ok Kevin? Search results for query: Penang

Once you evacuate Singapore, all is lost. You need fortress Malaya, not Singapore.

 

[Kevin J]

All what'if is an exercise in hindsight, but with water running out and no relief coming, I have to think by early Feb when the final convoys were arriving that the loss of Singapore was a dawning possibility.
I understand, but unlike our Monday QB, I'm not asking what should have happened, but what could have happened. If Churchill had ordered a Dunkirk or Greece like evacuation of Singapore in early February 1942 when any misconceptions of Japanese capabilities are now shattered, how do we make it happen? Perhaps we can't or won't evacutate combat soldiers, but why not load up those ships with wounded, non-essential military personnel and civilians?

But perhaps we've hit that contrarian wall found in "what if" discussion, where all we can post is why something shouldn't, wouldn't or couldn't have occurred. If so I'm okay with that, let's shut this one down - we've got a lot of other interesting topics on the go.

You can't evacuate a million people.

 

[Kevin J]

Here's the list of British convoys to Singapore The Singapore-convoys

Between Jan 3 and Feb 5, 1942 ten convoys arrived at Singapore carrying over 30,000 troops. Had Churchill wanted to, could a Dunkirk evacuation be possible? Send those convoys with empty troopships and it seems doable. The troops need only be shipped to Burma or Calcutta, ideally the latter so to avoid being cut off when Rangoon falls. Though the Australians may want their boys sent home.

Now, I know this would be a disaster for British prestige and for respect from Washington as their own troops hold out at Corregidor, but those evacuated British and CW troops can fight again, likely defending India.

So, that aside, how do we execute this evacuation? And, this being an aviation forum, we need the RAF to play an important role. Someone has to hold the rear guard, and it can't just be the Indians as they'll rightfully revolt back in India. Perhaps command and weapons can be turned over to the Malays and Chinese? And the convoys need protection, perhaps from the RAF on Sumatra and HMS Indomitable (Jan 27th she was off Sumatra)?

Churchill had already authorized the mass retreats from both Dunkirk (June 1940, 338,000 troops evacuated) and Greece (June 1941, 51,000 troops evacuated). A similarly sized evacuation to India shouldn't doom his government. For the rearguard tasked with fighting to the end in Singapore, I can think of no better commander than the useless Percival.

Straits Settlements - Wikipedia
You either hold the Straits Settlements or you have to evacuate South to Australia. India is much closer than Australia.

 

[Kevin J]

Isn't distance an issue?

Singapore to Rangoon is 2,000km+. Dunkirk to Dover is 75km.

And the fact that there was air support for withdrawal from Dunkirk. Would there be for Singapore?

So you need to fortify all the cities just to enable resupply from India. I can see this will be expensive.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Repulse was one of the few fast capital ships available, (one of four) so scuttling it would be madness to destroy it.

The two Erebus class would have been useful though in the defence/withdrawal of Penang.

Erebus-class monitor - Wikipedia

 

[Kevin J]

The two Erebus class would have been useful though in the defence of Penang.

View attachment 588928

Erebus-class monitor - Wikipedia

We need Repulse in Penang for both its guns and its radar, especially its radar. Unless the decision had already been taken that retreat from the north was the only feasible option. In which case, Percival is the perfect fit for the job. He had experience in planning the retreat to Dunkirk.

 

[Admiral Beez]

We need Repulse in Penang for both its guns and its radar, especially its radar. Unless the decision had already been taken that retreat from the north was the only feasible option. In which case, Percival is the perfect fit for the job. He had experience in planning the retreat to Dunkirk.

HMS Terror was based at Singapore throughout the 1930s and was undergoing refit at Singapore in Sept 1939. Terror was the best ship to defend Penang, she has the shallow draft to pull close to shore (and beach if necessary), is a small target to hit, and can act like HMS Canopus at Stanley, firing over land with radio direction.

Here's a low rez photo of HMS Terror at Singapore in 1939. If you want heavy guns at Penang, Terror is your best candidate. Just get the RN to leave her in Malaya through 1940-1942.

A better pic and good history. Singapore Naval Base

This would make for an excellent What If scenario, with HMS Terror coordinating her fire with aircraft from RAF Butterworth, likely moving from Butterworth on the mainland to Bayan Lepas airport.