What if, after signing the Munich Agreement, Hitler did not invade Poland until 1944

[Admiral Beez]

What would have happened had the UK and France actually supported (with modern hardware, at least) Poland when it was invaded in the 1920s?

It's a good question, especially since Britain and France were already in combat against Soviet forces in 1920, Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War - Wikipedia

 

[SaparotRob]

Regarding the Soviet part in the invasion of Poland.
I noticed in post #17 the British offered all the support "in their power". As both Britain and France would have to go through Germany to assist Poland, it seems more of a grand empty gesture even if Germany had not attacked.

 

[SaparotRob]

I was wondering about Czechoslovakia though. I've read that Germany gained much from acquired Czech industry. The Wehrmacht used Czech tanks in front line service.
Was Czechoslovakia in any position to repel an attack? I guess since England and France were able to just give the Sudetenland away, the answer is no. Still, could the Czechs have offered any resistance or was the Sudetenland so pro-Germany that it couldn't?

 

[swampyankee]

Regarding the Soviet part in the invasion of Poland.
I noticed in post #17 the British offered all the support "in their power". As both Britain and France would have to go through Germany to assist Poland, it seems more of a grand empty gesture even if Germany had not attacked.

For the Polish-Soviet War in the early 1920s, it would be require only the willingness to do so. They had a lot of surplus military hardware; sending that and some trainers would not be all that onerous. Quite a lot of the hardware was being scrapped, and at least some of the demobilized veterans would have been willing to help Poland, either out of support of Polish independence or in opposition to the bolsheviks.

In 1939, the Soviet invasion (Sept 17) started significantly after the German invasion (Sept 1); to so any attempt to support Poland would require transit of either German or Soviet controlled territory or the Baltic. Getting cargo ships into the Baltic would require passage through very restricted waters, and the Germans would pretty much know exactly where to look for them.

 

[SaparotRob]

I understand that in 1920 France and England might have had an easier time transiting through Germany but I'm referring to the agreement signed in 1939.
BTW Thanks Admiral Beez for that link. Lots of new homework!

 

[GrauGeist]

Poland did have a military that could have put up a much greater fight *IF* the French had not insisted that Marshall Rydz-Smigly stand down when he was about to order mobilization of the military.

 

[SaparotRob]

Now I know about Marshall Rydz-Smigly. Also, I never knew Poland had annexed territory from Czechoslovakia before Germany did. That answers my thoughts on Czechoslovakia.

 

[swampyankee]

I was wondering about Czechoslovakia though. I've read that Germany gained much from acquired Czech industry. The Wehrmacht used Czech tanks in front line service.
Was Czechoslovakia in any position to repel an attack? I guess since England and France were able to just give the Sudetenland away, the answer is no. Still, could the Czechs have offered any resistance or was the Sudetenland so pro-Germany that it couldn't?

From all reports, the Germans in the Sudentenland were adamantly opposed to integrating into the Czechoslovakian country. This is not surprising; many of the interactions between Germans (in the extended sense of ethnicity, not the more limited one of citizenship) was to have the Czechs and Slovaks in subordinate social and economic conditions, much as indigenous peoples were treated in imperial possessions.

 

[davparlr]

Germany has to start a war. Germany was nearly bankrupt.

After WW1 and the great depression, the whole world was bankrupt, but by 1939, was starting to recover (also thanks to war worries).
Hitler was impatient. He already had Austria and part of Czechoslovakia. Four years of peace in a growing world economy could possibly have stabilized German economics including exporting their highly desirable technical abilities through products and importing needed raw materials for war stockpiles. All under the guise of "peace for our time"!

Much of Germanys success in 1939-41 was because they "stole a march". Given 4 years more to prepare the UK USA and Canada may have been able to eliminate the U Boat threat more quickly. Same for the war on land.

They "stole a march" because France and Great Britain had stuck their head in the sand. Hitler had already rearmed and remilitarized the Rhineland, and united with Austria and Sudetenland under the "watchful" eyes of France and Great Britain, all in violation of the Treaty of Versailles. After the signing of the Munich Agreement, "peace in our time" document, I do not think Great Britain would pull its head out of the sand but rather lapse into hopeful peaceful attitude, especially if Hitler had complied with its terms. Remember Chamberlain and his "cautious rearmament" would still be in power.

The historical Allies had plenty of hardware in development, but would have that been as accelerated without war?
Both the U.S. and Britain were operaring with tight purse strings until war broke out.
Same goes for Germany, where they weren't taking many technologies serious until the tide of war was turning against them.
My guess is that the RLM, not being desperate, would have still not taken the Jet program seriously, even by 1944.
Their aircraft manufacturing would have most likely still been a single-shift work week (as was historically) until circumstances became dire.

All execelent comments and need to be addressed. Given the answers, what would the military balance of power be in Spring of 1944 and what kind of weapons would be war ready?

But the RN would match the Kriegsmarine ship for ship so dontcha worry about that.

Your probably right. GB was very jealous of her lead in naval warfare and I think she would defend that.

Would Japan invade the Dutch East Indies? That's a difficult one because it's kinda yes and kinda no. I actually think they would. Really think that. Otherwise it's out of China and Korea and I doubt that's gonna fly.

If Japan goes to War then UK and USA will be at war regardless of what Germany does.

Japan is the wild card. Would they go to war with the US not expecting Germany to start a war with the US? I do not think Germany would start a war with the US before engaging a war in Europe.

This assumes the allies do nothing.

The question assumes nothing. What would the allies forces look like is part of the answer..

Germany may have been stronger but the British, Americans, and French were also improving their strength even before the shooting started.

The unknown on this is, would a dedicated, war planning, peaceful Germany be more efficient in preparing for war than a laid back "cautious rearming" peace loving GB and an isolationist US both thinking Germany is living up to the Munich Agreement?

 

[gjs238]

Germany has to start a war. Germany was nearly bankrupt.

After WW1 and the great depression, the whole world was bankrupt, but by 1939, was starting to recover (also thanks to war worries).
Hitler was impatient. He already had Austria and part of Czechoslovakia. Four years of peace in a growing world economy could possibly have stabilized German economics including exporting their highly desirable technical abilities through products and importing needed raw materials for war stockpiles. All under the guise of "peace for our time"!

Hitler's belief in the "Shrinking Markets" theory led to the implementation of Autarky in 1933.
Germany wouldn't/couldn't have made it to 1944.

 

[swampyankee]

Now I know about Marshall Rydz-Smigly. Also, I never knew Poland had annexed territory from Czechoslovakia before Germany did. That answers my thoughts on Czechoslovakia.

A Polish-Czechoslovakian alliance could -- not would, but could -- have been beneficial to both. One thesis that may support that idea is here: https://scholarworks.umt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=6232&context=etd

Note that I'm far from expert ("totally ignorant" is closer to the truth) on Polish-Czechoslovakia relations, but it does seem that mutual enmity during the first few years of both nations' existence was not going to help especially when nazism and the associated revanchism were gaining political power.

 

[MIflyer]

Before the German invasion of Poland GB and the USSR had a serious disagreement over Finland. The US provided Brewster F2A fighters to Finland, not realizing that they would be used against a future ally. One of the more interesting paintings I have seen shows a Finnish F2A engaging Soviet Hawk 81A's.

 

[swampyankee]

Before the German invasion of Poland GB and the USSR had a serious disagreement over Finland. The US provided Brewster F2A fighters to Finland, not realizing that they would be used against a future ally. One of the more interesting paintings I have seen shows a Finnish F2A engaging Soviet Hawk 81A's.

As I've said, Soviet revanchism (re-conquest of territories lost post-WW1) was morally no different than the German variety; it's just that the USSR was not a military threat to either France or the UK.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I was wondering about Czechoslovakia though. I've read that Germany gained much from acquired Czech industry. The Wehrmacht used Czech tanks in front line service.
Was Czechoslovakia in any position to repel an attack? I guess since England and France were able to just give the Sudetenland away, the answer is no. Still, could the Czechs have offered any resistance or was the Sudetenland so pro-Germany that it couldn't?

The Sudetenland was very pro German. Most of the population in that region where ethnic Germans, and spoke German. My wife's grandparents were from the Sudetenland. They resettled in Germany as refugees after the war.

 

[davparlr]

Hitler's belief in the "Shrinking Markets" theory led to the implementation of Autarky in 1933.
Germany wouldn't/couldn't have made it to 1944.

A lot of jumping to confusion. I suspect few macroeconomist buys into this.

 

[The Basket]

What happens is USSR invades West in 1940something.

All Europe fights the red menace.

Germany becomes glorious ally against evil. Japan also joins fight.

Hitler is a Hero.

 

[Shortround6]

After the signing of the Munich Agreement, "peace in our time" document,

he unknown on this is, would a dedicated, war planning, peaceful Germany be more efficient in preparing for war than a laid back "cautious rearming" peace loving GB and an isolationist US both thinking Germany is living up to the Munich Agreement?

There is a school of thought that has Neville Chamberlain as a much more ruthless and calculating politician that most histories give him credit for. This school thinks he knowingly sold out Czechoslovakia in order to buy time for Britain and France to rearm. GB was not quite cautiously rearming in 1938-39. They were building shadow aircraft factories and shadow engine plants, the navy expansion/replacement program has been mentioned, they were build a factory to build 20mm Hispano guns on a bare plot of ground (and a lot of other bare plot of ground factories). They were expanding the armoured forces and motorizing the army(replacing the horses, infantry still walked) Chamberlain may have had few illusions about Hitler in private living up the Munich agreement. The Public facade may have cost him in 1940 and perhaps Churchill was the better war leader. But it was under Chamberlain that the defences that would be used in the BoB were planned, built and put into place. Along with the much increased military production.

Hitler had run a bluff and won. Germany was not as prepared for war in 1938 as the British and French thought it was.

 

[The Basket]

Going to war in 1938 had 3 possible advantages.

The Czechs were reasonable well armed and not the gimme that they were taken for.

Stalin was not allied to Hitler.

The resistance to Hitler may or may not have done something.

It would have been far better to fight Germany in 1938 than 1940.

Maybe UK was not ready but neither was Germany.

 

[Admiral Beez]

A lot of jumping to confusion.

I followed it fine enough. Where were you confused?

 

[Admiral Beez]

What happens is USSR invades West in 1940something.

All Europe fights the red menace.

Germany becomes glorious ally against evil. Japan also joins fight.

Hitler is a Hero.

Germany's natural ally is Britain, IMO. They just need a common enemy, be it Napoleon, Stalin or Tojo. But not with Hitler or Nazis at the helm.