I'm ot familiar with Ellis, What are his soucess? Does he define loss as MIA (failed to return), or MIA plus Cat E/Salvage? How does he define Combats?
You need to contact Ellis. I do not have a copy of the book, only some notes from it. The theme is the allies were not that intelligent and largely buried the axis under a pile of stuff. He has another book with a focus on data, John Ellis, WWII A Statistical survey.
I'll have to re-read to see if you have the context correct, but if so - what a sloppy way to draw a conclusion regarding timing and comprehensiveness of LW upgunning from machine gun (MG 17??) to 20 and 30mm. The primary replacement to cowl mounted machine cannon from machine gun on Bf 109 and Fw 190 and Me 110/210/410 occured in early 1943 for virtualy all Day Fighters opposed to 8th AF. The MG 17 7.92mm was long gone in 1943. I wonder how many friendly fire hoes from surrounding M2 50 caliber were counted?
Apart from the rifle calibre machine guns the FW190A-3 in spring 1942 upgraded the armament to 2 high velocity and 2 low velocity 20mm cannon, Fw190A-6 was the upgrade to 4 high velocity 20mm cannon in June 1943, the A-7 introduced the heavy machine guns in late 1943. Production difficulties held up fitting the 30mm to Bf109, how many 30mm cannon equipped German fighters were there through 1943 and 1944, most histories note the rockets were the 1943 answer and the 30mm as the 1944 answer.
Perhaps for the Bf109 two of the 20mm cannon were add ons? Best avoided to keep performance, then comes the gap between production and making it to the units, the way on 30 April 1945 the 15th AF had 46 P-51B, 62 C and 251 D, the P-38 units 58J and 201 L. While the B-24 units had G, H, J, L, M models. The 16 October 1943 Luftwaffe response included Bf109E and F from the training units. See Caldwell.
As for counting friendly holes that was going on and for the 8th Air Force at least 3 B-24 and 5 B-17 are listed as shot down by other USAAF heavy bombers. Another B-17 shot itself down and a B-24 destroyed itself during a pre flight gun test. A larger number were lost after being hit by friendly bombs.
Bovine fecal matter tenderly cooled with flailing. USSBS did perhaps the best they could given the facts at and.
Your cuisine is your decision. So obviously having read the USSBS report in question, what are the shortcomings?
A better summary in my opinion combines Don Caldwell's table for LW losses on August 17 are 42 lost/27 damaged to all operational reasons including 9-1-8 single and T/e fighters to P-47 escort. His sources included Schmid, Prien and so many other German and Brit sources, as well as McF/N and Craven, Wesley and Cates, USAF HRC studies,
Taking B-17s Claims and losses per 8th AF Summary Reports used by both Freeman and McFarland/Newton were 36-3-118 for 1st BW and 24-1-50 for 4th BW, Between 1st and 4th BW, the claims for LW aircraft were 148-18-63 and 140-19-36. Total Bomber claims = 288-37-99 --------> compared to 42-27 reported by LW to both Fighters and bombers. If US Fighters, with much more rigorous examination of claims is assumed '0" then Bomber over claim is ~ 7:1.
8th FC claims were 19-3-4 for loss of 3. Asume for moment that 56th/78th and 353rd FG claims of 19-3-4 were further reduced by Victory Credits Board (source of USAF 85) to 19-0-9 and that they are accurate correspondence with LW losses. Subtract 19 from 42 (LW reported loss) = 23 remaining for B-17
288/23 = ~12.5:1 overclaim for B-17 on August 17, 1943..
Interesting Donald Caldwell uses the USAAF Statistical Digest for bomber losses, not the David Osborne B-17 list, published a decade before. Plus all those web sites dedicated to the individual bomb groups.
So RAF fighters are listed as scored zero kills from 14 claims, the USAAF ones 9 from 19 claims, then out of 42 reported Luftwaffe fighter losses 33 lost to bomber fire, versus 288 claims.
From British Intelligence in World War II (Hinsley), talking about how the RAF tightened up on kill claims, January to June 1943, the RAF fighter command allowed 249 kill claims against Luftwaffe fighters, the true number of kills was 235.
Having dug further into the loss list for 17 August 1943, cross checked against group web sites, 3 lost to battle damage, 3 lost to flak and fighter, 49 to fighters, 6 to flak, 1 to fuel starvation, 1 to Mechanical failure over the Mediterranean after being hit by flak and fighters, total 63 or in other words 33 fighters to 49 bombers, plus shares.
And skip the 14 October raid, after all Caldwell ups the Luftwaffe fighter losses to 53 (though 51 losses is the activity table total) of which 13 claimed by US fighters, versus 186 kill claims by the bombers, assuming every US fighter claim is correct, 40 to 186, under 5 to 1 overclaim, if 6 of the fighter claims are correct 46 to 186 or 4 to 1 overclaim.
Caldwell has 36 Bf109, 10 Bf110, 3 Fw190, 2 Me410 lost, the Luftwaffe quartermaster has 33 Bf109, 3 Bf110, 3 Fw190, 1 Me410, the Bf110 difference is effectively the 6 losses from II/ZG26 (Quartermaster has another 7 Bf109 and 1 Bf110 lost to non combat causes on operations)
Updated B-17 losses, 3 Battle Damage, 2 flak and fighter, 54 fighter, 5 flak, 1 fuel starvation, 1 landing accident, 3 mechanical failure, total 69. Caldwell says 60 B-17 lost, Freeman says 60 lost, 7 Category E.
Using Caldwell, 53 or 51 fighters lost versus 54 B-17 plus shares to Luftwaffe fighters, even if all 13 USAAF fighter claims are correct out of 51 losses, that leaves 38 to 54+shares, under 2 to 3 fighter to bomber.
tell me why YOU believe that LW day fighters were not upgunned to 15mm/20mm and 30mm cannon from early 1943 forward?
Good to know your ability to misunderstand things is still other people's fault. The ratio of cannon to machine gun hits (note no calibre of machine gun was reported but the cannon are reported as 20mm) shows the upgunning.
Tell me again about 'hole counting science' that YOU believe is statistically significant to postulate prsence of machine gun to cannon ratio of returned bombers with battle damage - and perhaps methods to differentiate from a.) exploding 20mm shrapnel or b,) Splinters from heavy flak, or c.) Friendly Fire from fighters and bombers?
I believe that is what you call a homework assignment, for you to find and consult the relevant 8th Air Force damage reports. Rather than me boring you with more deathless prose. I note the German 20mm had contact fuses, the majority of the US aircraft present did not mount cannon.