What if lots of B-29-like bombers with glide bombs had attacked very well protected convoys?

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I'll bight at this.

Most allied aircraft carriers were 'escort carriers' which carried aircraft like the wildcat/martlet. These were relatively low performance aircraft but they were sufficient to keep away say a Fw 200 or intercept aircraft such as the Dornier 217. They couldn't keep away something like a B29.

Fw 200 could effectively and accurately destroy merchant ships by level bombing from 12000-16000ft using the Lofte 7 computing bomb sight. They couldn't destroy military ships which were too fast and manoeuvrable. However Do 217 with Fritz-X could destroy fast battleships and with the Hs 293 either a Do 217 or Fw 200 could attack from 10km-16km out from the target, which is out of range of allied anti aircraft guns. However escort carriers could carry aircraft such as the Wildcat able to intercept these aircraft and substantialy neutralise the threat. In General Hs 293B launch range was outside of allied AAA defences and Fritz-X drop height of about 22500ft was above accurate AAA.

Without escort carriers to protect convoys the Fw 200 would have caused enormous damage to allied convoys when they received their computing bombsights in 1942. Prior to that Fw 200 attacks consisted of a relatively low altitude bomb run in which 3 bombs were released. That kind of attack could probably be defended reasonably well with via Oerlikon guns on the deck of the merchant ship.

However for more capable aircraft the rare and expensive fleet carrier might be required to handle a B29 whose performance was such that a Martlet and a Seafire would have difficulty.

Hs 293 had a TV guidance system called Tonne-Seedorf in development that would allow the aircraft to launch the missile and immediately turn around and escape rather than fly parallel to the convoy under attack. It could also hide in clouds. (The 4th version of Tonne-Seedorf 4 was more or less ready for production)

If the Luftwaffe had an aircraft with the performance of the B29 then it would creat big problems for the allies since I doubt the Wildcat/Martlet could intercept.

Such an aircraft would be the Heinkel He 177A7 (with DB613 engines) or Heinkel He 277 with two stage supercharged DB603L/Jumo 213E1 engines or He 274 with turbo charged DB603T engines.

The allies need aircraft carriers carrying the Corsairs or Hellcats, probably only the Corsair or Seafire 46 with two stage griffon had the performance to intercept a B29. They would probably need larger fleet carriers.

A B29 class aircraft attacking at 30,000ft with a guided gravity bomb such as Fritz-X could avoid interception from most allied carrier aircraft and be immune to AAA.

A B29 class aircraft attacking at similar altitude and speed could attack with a glide bomb such as the Hs 293 equipped with TV guidance or a similar autonomous radar homing missile such as the USN BAT would also be hard to intercept. The aircraft would be out of AAA range and would probably need to get no closer than 15-20 miles to target and be able to turn around immediately upon launch.

The Germans had no such aircraft in service. Maybe a Ju 88S as a guidance aircraft with a He 177 as a launch aircraft. The Ju 290B if equipped with the BMW 801TJ (turbo charged) engine was capable of operation at 10000m/33000ft and would have similar performance to the B29 (estimated higher flying but slower)

So yes it would work.

History shows that unescorted bombers easily fell foul of intercepting fighters but the B29 performance was such that all but the best carrier born fighters would likely not intercept them or only with difficulty untill very advanced naval fighters were available.
 
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GrauGeist
The 100-fighter-scenario is not my friend's one, it is my one. I mean, if Britain really gets in danger being cut off from supplies, the Allies would have done everything to avoid this, even for the expense of other theaters. When they have 85 flat-tops in all, they with ease could have sent 30 for a convoy .
30 carriers mean ~600 aircraft! So I say, for the most dangerous part of the journey, between the southern tip of Iceland and the North channel, a portion of 100 of these 600 aircraft can be kept airborne, while others get refuelled an rearmed.


K Koopernic
Thank you for your detailed answer. I appreciate that someone here takes the position of my friend.

You point on Fritz X attacks. I say, in this theater, well below the all-time routes of the low-pressure areas of the Northern Atlantic, Fritz X attacks were impossible, or at least, not promising. Fritz X needed a minimum launch height of 4000 m and free sight. There, you won't have this.

Indeed, my friend keeps on upgrading the He 177 like you do. I think it would be very difficult to have such a version service-ready by the end of 1943. The same for the tv-guided version of the Hs 293. But, ok, if it is seen early enough that such things are needed... But I still wonder what kind of wire and reels would be possible for a wire-guided version of the Hs 293...

Do you, or anybody else, say, the escort carriers were unable to host Corsairs or Griffon-Seafires?

I have to admit it is a nice idea to make use of the overcast and operate the Hs 293 from within the clouds! Does anybody say the fighter multitude still could be guided precisely by the ship radar to chase the bombers?


@Anyone
Do you think a wire-and-tv-guided version of the Hs 293 would have been possible? Or could the Allies have confused the Hs 293 operator by transferring a low-brow tv show to the Tonne-Seedorf system?

Regards, RT
 
Get yourself some tennis balls, oranges, something like that. Six of them. Go for a walk down the street juggling all six of them. Have your friend try to hit the balls while you are juggling them with BBs or pieces of rice. While you both do all this recite the alphabet backwards and do your multiplication tables.

That is about 1/1000 of the sort of mental gymnastics needed to manage either side of the scenario you are discussing. Operating one carrier is hard. Dozens around one convoy is beyond their ability.

Defeating waves of high performance bombers attacking the convoys would not be done with carriers, or not many of them and not fleet ones. Smoke, jamming, convoy diversions, land based interceptors just "happening" to be in the right place to hit the bombers using ULTRA etc.
 
I can appreciate the ideology behind the scenario, but the one thing that ruins it, is reality.

The number 85 keeps showing up and I suspect that you (or your friend) are looking at wartime totals instead of ones in service at the time of this convoy scenario.
Add to this, the fact that the vast majority of the carriers counted were smaller Escort carriers, which typically had a compliment of 25 (on average) aircraft (mix of fighters and bombers) and in the case of the British, their "merchant carriers" (about 25 or so were employed) are included in their carrier list and these were literally cargo/tankers that had a flight deck and a compliment of 4 aircraft.

As far as fleet carriers go, there were not 85 to be found in the world, even if you combine all the nation's carriers (Germany, France, U.S., Italy, Britain, Japan) including ones never put in service or sunk during the war, you'll come up with 60 total.

Additionally, Fleet carriers did not operate alone, they had support vessels for protection which included at least one Cruiser and several destroyers, so the convoy being "protected" would be dwarfed by the massed Cruisers, Destroyers and such that are attached to the Carriers.

Plus, with all the Capitol ships being pulled away from combat areas, means no support for ground forces or protection for contested areas, allowing for the enemy to run rough-shod in those theaters.

The scenario really isn't practical from a military or strategic standpoint, to be honest.
 

A high altitude bomber would be detected by radar at ~100nm or more (20-30min from weapon release range) from the convoy, so no need for a standing CAP.

A B-29 class aircraft rarely operated at full throttle and so can be intercepted by lesser performance fighters (for example, Sea Hurricane IIC, Seafire II/III with a Merlin 46), and if the bomber increases speed to avoid interception it's bomb accuracy will suffer. If the Luftwaffe introduced high altitude bombers, the Allies had the resources to rapidly introduce a variety of escort fighters to counter the threat. As long as fighter interception and AA can inflict 10% or more losses on each attack, the Lufwaffe will rapidly run out of aircraft, especially as Axis resources are limited, so more Axis bombers means less of something else, like fighters, or U-boats.

2ndly the introduction of VT ammo in Jan 1943 for AA dramatically changed the equation in terms of AA accuracy. Provision of VT ammo to the RN and ETO, in general, historically took a back seat to the PTO, but if HMCS Prince Roberts, for example, had had VT ammo (which was just being delivered to the RN/RCN) her AA fire would have been devastating, even against high altitude bombers and to missiles in their terminal phase.

3rd, the Allies were introducing radar aimed CIWS that were capable of destroying a guided glide bomb/missile in it's terminal attack phase, and any radio link is susceptible to ECM, and the Allies were working hard to stay abreast of Axis developments in this area.
 
The USA didn't have B-29s in 1943. How does Germany get them in numbers? Wherever they are made and stationed in Germany and France in 1943 would become the No 1 target for the allies. A problem for the allies long distance air cover for convoys was finding them when the rendezvous was pre arranged, convoys didn't always make the speeds and course expected and aircraft were frequently affected by winds. How do these fleets of German B-29 find a convoy? Against the "Baby Blitz" operation Steinbock the RAF had 12 squadrons of Mosquito and Beaufighter night fighters. In 1943 the battle of the Atlantic wasn't over there were still many maritime recon aircraft operating in the Atlantic. How do these German B-29s get from and back to base? It may be a great idea to use cloud to avoid defensive aircraft once the wonder weapon is launched, don't those clouds make it hard to find the target in the first place. Why not stop using convoys? What would they do about convoys making smoke? It was common in WW2 to disguise ships with additions to the superstructure, put some scaffolding and canvass on an escort carrier and how do you pick it out from 30 miles away? The B-29 was extremely expensive in every way. The USA couldn't afford to lose B-29s at previous rates of around 3-4% max. How does Germany produce and get into service these masses of B-29s whan they didn't do it with Fw-200s or He-177s? How does Goering stop them all being lost in Stalingrad?
 

If its mid 1945 and the Luftwaffe has B29 class aircraft (He 177A7 or He 277 or Ju 290B) with TV guided HS293/204/295 bombs or similar then the USN would have 440mph corsairs with 3cm APS-4 or APS-6 radar. Latter versions of this radar had blind fire ability. So they could find the aircraft in clouds.



Henschel Hs 293B glide bombs were used of He 177A5 aircraft and Do 217 in the period 1942-1944. History shows that the bombs were effective and kept the carrier aircraft safe from AAA but that carrier aircraft were vulnerable to escort fighters and it is these that ultimately meant that Fritz-X and Hs 293 operations had to cease. From late 43 to early 44 allied jamming started to become effective after many attempts. The capture of Hs 293 glide bombs from Foggia Italy allowed the allies to examine the system switch from broad band noise jamming to spoof jamming. that gave a continuous left/down command to the missile. The Germans suspected jamming had begun but were not able to confirm it. It wouldn't have mattered longer terms as there were back up guidance systems prepared in case of jamming. The real issue was keeping the launch aircraft safe.

Potentially I can see larger numbers of Ju 290 style aircraft being ready to attack from 1942 onwards, had the Luftwaffe successfully been allowed to develop such an aircraft. The He 177A3 also comes close except for its reliability issues in that period but neither of these aircraft is safe from allied carrier fighters though these powerful aircraft had a good ability to defend themselves compared to a Fw 200/Do 217. The Arado 234C was planed to carry the Fritz-X and could have attacked with impunity.

Fritz-X and Hs 293 could be used at night in which case parachute flares were dropped to illuminate the target and electric torches replaces the illuminating flares in the missiles.

The Luftwaffe tried to attack the Royal Naval Base in Portsmouth night but the Ju 88S pathfinders designated to drop the flares arrived 20 minutes late leaving the Do 217 vulnerable to interception for unnecearry 20 minutes and so the raid fell apart.
 
So from the German perspective they send their incredibly expensive bombers using their increasingly scarce fuel carrying expensive weapons out to where a U-boat said a convoy was earlier. Hundreds of miles over the ocean where any mechanical issue is a lost aircraft. With the risk of interception far from escorts. To shoot at a convoy that might be gone or might hide in smoke or might be under a rain cloud and if it isn't they will mostly miss.

Why not just build more U-boats?
 
Why not just build more U-boats?

Never let reality get in the way of a "what if"

What if the Germans built a fleet of bombers they didn't have the materials or factory space/manpower to build (B-29 weighs empty about twice what a He 177 does) and uses a weapon at a much greater range than the germans ever got it to work in combat (or an alternative system that nobody got to work reliable for years after) and deploys these aircraft and missiles in much greater numbers than the germans ever managed and the allies developed no counter measures for?
 
Why not just build more U-boats?

Which is precisely what they did. All things being equal though, they never got to deploy them to the extent that they could be used effectively because the Allies managed to break their naval codes and determine U boat sailings in advance, which led to long range maritime patrol aircraft being fitted with centimetric radar popping out from nowhere, right where the U boats were transitting. Not to mention the scarcity of resources as a result of a punishing and unceasing regime of day and night bombing raids on essential production facilities required for the Reich to wage war, which stifled almost every aspect of the German armed forces from 1943 onwards.

Let's also not forget that despite the construction of four engined prototyes and new weapon systems, the He 177 never overcame the worst of its faults and remained as much of a headache for its crews in service as it had always been, for the rest of the war. That's why the He 111 soldiered on far beyond its use by date.

In theory the idea had enormous merit, but by the end of 1943, it was getting to a point where putting the idea into practise was beyond the capacity of the Luftwaffe.
 
I watched the BBC "World at War" episode on the battle of the Atlantic and it said at the start of the war both sides believed the German surface fleets would be decisive and both were wrong. Doenitz felt the U Boat would be decisive and if he had many more U-Boats at the start things may have run differently.
 
if he had many more U-Boats at the start things may have run differently.

Pretty much, and to begin with, even with its fleet of largely small coastal boats, the KM wielded its submarine force effectively. The problem the Germans faced in the first two years of the war was not the number of U boats or how sophisticated they were, or even enemy countermeasures, but terribly unreliable torpedoes.
 
Doenitz might have built more U-boats if some of the big ships were canceled and the treaty did allow the Germans to build up to 100% of the RN submarine tonnage after the announced such an intention.
However such a shift in building programs would not have gone unnoticed and the British could have shifted their building program/s to more escorts sooner.
 

And there we have the perhaps unforeseen impact of altering historic timelines. With any potential 'what if' situation, the opposition, be it the Allies or Axis will react to a change in circumstance and not sit in a complete actionless vacuum.
 
Ship building programs are a lot more "visible" than aircraft or army weapon production.

For example the Germans Built eight type IXA U-boats and each one took over a year from laying down to launch, all were built in the same shipyard and the 7th was not started until several months after the 1st was launched. So six were on the slipways at one time.

Larger ships take more time.
The type VII might be able to be built a bit quicker but you are still going to need shipyards and slipways.
 
Hi all, so many arguments and details! Please excuse if not everybody is spoken to in personal and no every argument is answered in detail.

"Smoke screen"
There is a continuing proposal for laying a smoke screen. This figure comes from sea warfare and I have to say, this is nothing useful to protect ships from jeopardies which come from above. Smoke screen can help a number of ships to retreat in an around 90 degree ankle to the screen. I wonder has there ever been an attempt to hide a ship by a smoke COVER.
Furthermore, such screens won't last very long. They are easily blown away by wind and rip while the ships to hide keep on moving forward parallel to it. They hamper the sight of helmsmen and lookouts, the sight of the AA gunners, and hamper own aircraft from taking off. Also, they are not a method to avoid radar detection. More, the probably big number of small warships necessary to lay the screen cannot do submarine hunting at the same time. So I mean, this idea quickly dissolves into smoke.

"VT ammo aka Proximity Fuses"
The Hs 293 is created to keep the carrying aircraft out of the ship AA range. If this condition holds being true, there is no difference in the way the grenade explodes. It simply hits nothing.

"CIWS"
Nothing found for this before the 1973 Phalanx system. Please quote.

P pbehn
Of course, this scenario requires a radical change in German politics and strategy, including defense of the bomber bases and attacking the forces which could try to hit them. For finding and shadowing the convoys, the Messerschmitt Me 261 stood ready for production. Creating convoys was a great invention of WWI. Dissolving them would mean to refrain from their advantages and make ships an easier prey for U-boats. The flat-deck of a carrier is not easy to camouflage, especially in moments when aircraft are to operate from it. The anti-convoy offensive takes about a year to prepare. If Hitler is toppled in September 1942, it may have worked. The scenario is in late 1943, one year after Stalingrad, and the aircraft are assumed newly having been produced. And had Hitler been toppled, the battle of Stalingrad had not necessarily happened at all.

"The Corsair's Radar"
As Koopernic says, not service-ready before mid-1945. The tactis of hiding in the clouds and attacking with a tv-guided Hs 293 still has timeframe to be promising, although it were surely difficult to perform.

"Armament in General" ( S Shortround6 )
Careful investigation by my friend and me showed:
material: was there, if the Germans kept the manganese mines of Nikopol
manpower: was there, especially if soldiers returned from a silented Eastern Frontier
factory space: was not there. But could have been built up within months.

"Reliability of the He 177"
Contrary to the wide-spread opinion, the A-3 became reliable for use at the end of 1942, and so did the A-5 at the end of 1943. Only minor engineering faults remained, which could have been eraded by equally minor engineering efforts. The DB 605 engine was close to edge of technical posibilities, not only its double version DB 610. Both A-3 and A-5 still are not comparable to a B-29. For me, further upgrading of the He 177, e.g. by using DB 613 engines, is hard to imagine to be realized by autumn 1943. And even if this had taken place, these aircraft still were vulnerable against contemporary fighters like the Corsair, especially while carrying weapons as external load.

"U-boats"
would profit from a successfull air offensive as well. Of course, a combined air-and-submarine offensive would have been foreseen.

GrauGeist
Imagine the first massive He 177/Hs 293 strikes hit a convoy little or nearly unprotected by carriers (the ones accompanying it hosting only some antisubmarine aircraft). This and maybe some of the next convoys literally get slaughtered. So then? What the hell do you try to find on Tarawa Island at that time? My friend says, there must be some limited operations against Japanese posessions in New Guinea before changig anything considerable. What? New Guinea?
I say, from the first catastrophic events in the Northern Atlantic, the Allies would stop the convoys and leave Britain alone. But only for a short while. Then they would come back and protect the convois by a massive carrier force!

@Anybody
If it is your opinion the Americans would rather give up Britain than to stop other operations, tell us!

Hope you still enjoy, and regards,
RT
 

Boeing B-29A Superfortress
Specification of the Boeing B-29A Superfortress:
Engines: Four Wright R-3350-57 Duplex Cyclone eighteen-cylinder air-cooled radial engines each with two General Electric turbosuperchargers, delivering 2200 hp for takeoff and having a war emergency rating of 2300 hp at 25,000 feet. Performance: Maximum speed 357 mph at 30,000 feet, 306 mph at sea level. Maximum continuous cruising speed 342 mph at 30,000 feet. Economical cruising speed 220 mph at 25,000 feet.

There is no way a Hurricane or Wildcat can get anywhere near a B29 level performance aircraft, the 342mph @ 30,000ft cruising speed is to great.. The Spitfire Vc can get to altitude in time but has negligible speed margin. The only viable interceptors are Spitfire IX or a Merlin 66 based Seafire or Griffon 60 based Seafire. The 1943 Hellcat and Corsair both climb a little slow and the Hellcat has a modest speed advantage.

You need picket ships or standing patrols. A B29 at 342 mph can move 86 miles in 15 minutes. Apart from needing 10 minutes to get to altitude you need time to turn the carrier into the wind and form up.

As far as "CIWS". There was nothing like a CIWS in 1945 let alone 1943. Certainly there were radar directed 4 inch & 5 inch guns but they required manual tracking of range and bearing through the radar. Without autolock there is greatly reduced accuracy. Such auto track radars started to come into use on naval vessels only in 1945. There was the late 1943 US Army SCR-584 which featured autotrack but it was not marinized until after WW2. As far as radar directed guns in the 40mm range there are non, they used radar for range finding but required optical tracking. A modern CIWS uses sophisticated radar to track both the shell and the aircraft and corrects the aim according to miss distance.

Proximity fuses aren't a threat tot the carrier aircraft as they are well out of range. They will defiantly be a threat to the missiles but at 375mph at low altitude the Hs 293 proved a hard target to get and few were shot down. Yes proximity fuzes and radar directed guns were a threat but even in 1945 not a solution. You wont be able to find a a radar able to do this until after 1945. Most Hs 293 failed due to reliability issues but its usually something you can get n top of.

The Luftwaffe did have a Mach 1.6 supersonic anti shipping missile under development which was code named 'zitterrochen' or sting ray. It consisted of a missile with reverse delta wings. Not much is known but it did undergo extensive wind tunnel testing at both subsonic and supersonic speed.





The B29A wasn't a German aircraft so this is a hypothetical question. The closest design for an uninterceptible super bomber the Germans had in 1943 was the Ju 288C. It's speed was 408mph at 22700ft with a range of 1600 miles with a 8800lb bomb load. This aircraft could definitely have been in service and production in 1943 with the mere decision to produce it and I think could have been as hard to intercept as a B29 despite its lower service ceiling as it was a much faster aircraft. In fact Frederick Forsyth on his recent Osprey book on the He 177 notes that the He 177 was nearly cancelled in favour of the Ju 288. It probably would have been a better choice.

Roughtly the History of this aircraft is
Ju 288A. A slim bodied version with 3 crew fuselage that was meant to use 2500hp Jumo 222 enigines. Prototypes flew with BMW 801.
Ju 288B. A wide bodied version with 4 crew. Failed due to the Jumo 222 not achieving 2500hp with B4 fuel for more than 22 hours operation in time to make a production decision. The weight growth made use of a derated 2000hp engine unacceptable.
Ju 288C. Used the DB606 (paired DB601) or DB610 (Paired DB605) pending Jumo 222. Was slated for production in late 43/44 but fell foul of the allied invasion and resource issues.
The DB610 when integrated on the Ju 288C never had any reliability issues and it was found that the DB610 reliability issues on the He 177A5 were solved by late 1943 anyway with maritime reconnaissance versions achieving the standard 220 hour DB605 service interval if given the prescribed preventative maintenance. At least one prototype flew. The issues had more to do with the lack of hangers or lifting equipment to work on the engines.

The Luftwaffe had maritime search radar. The Hohtenweil radar could pick up a convoy at 100nm and a periscope or inflatable life raft at 6nm. Antenna pulses travelled along the wings creating a sweep to the left and right. They also emanated in a lobe switching pattern from the nose. A Fw 200C or other Luftwaffe aircraft with this radar could carry out night attacks with either bombs or torpedoes n theory due to the lobe switching but was to vulnerable and the Ju 290 was never armed. The hohtenweil could pick up fighter aircraft taking of from carriers and stay away from them. They were safe so long as they got no closer than 50km-80km from a carrier.

The German navy needed its own naval air arm that Goering wasn't in charge of. They had a naval air arm in WW1 and the modern Luftwaffe does. The problem was mainly that the Germany navy wasn't properly supported with the correct types of aircraft. They needed long range 4 engine bombers and long range escort fighters.


The U-boat campaign was failing badly in 1942. The U-boat's had become Iron Coffins with 86% loss rate of crew (worse even than Bomber Commands 60%). In 1942 however the Fw 200 Condors when equipped with Lofte bombing sights showed how deadly medium altitude bombing could be against merchant ships. Had the Luftwaffe had a decent well armed 4 engine bomber equal to a Lancaster (eg Ju 89 or Ju 289/Ju 290) in service in numbers they would have caused much more damage. Not only through bombing butbetter reconnaissance and harassment of allied patrol aircraft.

1943 the U-boats became successful again as the German Navy introduced a 4th rotor to enigma which meant convoys could not longer be routed around U-boats as well they had radar detectors etc.

The U-boats would have become succesfull again in 1945 (should have been 1943/44 but for delays) with the Type XXI U-boat. This u boat's advantages were
1 top speed of 17 knots instead of 7-8 knots of a Type VII/IX
2 At 4 knots the Type IX/VII U-boats had a underwater range of only 65/80 nautical miles.
3 The Type XXI had a range of 340nm at 6 knots and could likely go 400-500 nautical miles at 4 knots.
4 At below 6.2 knots the Type XXI was using its creeper drives and at that speed the U-boat was so much more silent than an escort it couldnt be tracked, especially if the escort was moving and creating noise.
5 The type XXI had mast radar stealth making detection with 9cm radar ineffective and 3cm radar difficult. The Type XXI had radar detectors for 3cm and 9cm radar. It also had a FuMO 391 radar able to detect a patrol aircraft out to 100km with a single pulse that would likely never be detected or identified and was impossible to direction find. The Snorkel had besides radar detector a infrared detector that could pick up the engines of a maritime patrol aircraft.
The Type XXI could have a anechoic tile called "Albrecht: fitted"
6 The Type XXI had a very accurate array sonar that could passively track an vessel to within 0.5 degrees, which is enough totrack its angular rate and attack it using a predicted line. (Tan 0.5) at 1000m is 8m. The active radar could emit a single chirp (3 rapid pulses) that could get not only accurate range but much more accurate bearing. Because it was pulse doppler it ascertained closure rate as well as bearing and range. It was also impossible to direction find as it was a a pulse. You couldnt use maximum strenght method of direction finding. The Type XXI could thus attack underwater without surfacing.
7 There was also a new transmission system that could not be direction found with huff-duff called kurrier.


Fredrick Forsyth has a Osprey Book on the He 177. It's excellent for its use of long memoirs. Heinkel offered to convert the He 177 into a 4 separate engine bomber in early 1940 but it was rejected because in order to fulfil the dive bombing requirements a 'twin' design was required due to aeroelastic flexture issues that occurred in 4 engines. It turned out that the Ju 88 was a massive disappointment in payload range (probably due to the dive bombing requirement) which suddenly made the He 177 important but this too developed issues from this. Goering rescinded the dive bombing requirement (he claimed he knew nothing of it) but the time wasted could not be recovered and the paired engine problems remained.

The DB606 (paired DB601) used on the He 177A1 and about 2/3rds of He 177A3 was indeed poor but the reliability of the DB610 may not have been so bad. The "marineflieger", long range maritime reconnaissance squadrons were able to state that their engines were able to stay reliable and on the wings for 220 hours. KG1 flew several highly successful long range missions over the soviet union and evaded interception and experienced no engine problem. The engine was certainly very bad but they seemed to get on top of the worst problems in late 1943, probably because the DB605 also had intrinsic issues that caused problems on their own (it wasn't released to 1.41 ata boost till October 1943). So the issues seemed to be well under control by late 1943 but by then it was too late.

For a Short time the 4th rotor on German naval enigma machines secured the codes and U-boats had more success for a while. By 1943 they had a rewireable reflector "UKWD" and also a reflector that could advanced the reflector at a more random sequence. Both were capable of securing German cyphers. They just didn't deploy them fast enough.


The 1934 Anglo-German naval treaty limited the German fleet to 34% that of the British fleet in total tonnage and bound it indirectly to the Washington treaty. It actually had the effect of forcing the Germans to built more battleships than they wanted since they had to have a 'balanced fleet'. Else they would have built more cruisers instead. Incidentally the Bismarck never exceeded Washington Treaty limits in tonnage or gun calibre limits as the elevator clause kicked in after October 1937 for gun calibre and had already kicked in for tonnage. They had weight reduction plans if necessary.
 
The original "wonder weapon" scenario was for a B-29 type to approach a convoy at 350MPH launch its wonder weapon from 30 miles out and 30,000 ft and then retire, guiding its weapons by wire connected cameras to the main fleet carriers which it eliminated with a single shot or maybe two. This has now changed to the aircraft flying over the convoy to pick out the carriers at leisure, or not? Smoke was not just used at sea, my region had extensive smoke defences in WW2 to protect the refineries. Most of the time this was not needed because a massive cloud of crap hung over the area most of the time. Here is an article saying how they were used elsewhere in UK BBC - WW2 People's War - Army Apprentice 1942-45. You don't need a big number of small warships to make smoke, just burn oily rags in a drum on the rear of a freighter. This does not interfere with RADAR or ASDIC. Neither you or your friend have address how these wonder planes would be kept secret and protected, or even where they would take off from in 1943. The allies searched the entire North Atlantic for submarines in 1943, the idea that they couldn't set up a picket line of B-24s Wellingtons and other maritime recon aircraft to detect these miracle bombers is fanciful, as is the idea that they wouldn't be shot down each and every time they tried an attack. It seems that all the German designs that they didn't produce were world beaters. maybe because since they weren't produced the most fantastic levels of performance can be projected. In summary the only reason the Germans didn't have B-29 type aircraft in service in 1943 from almost any company that wasn't asked to do it, is because they weren't asked to do it.

In the summer of 1944 there were 6,000 ships and landing craft used at D-Day not one struck by a "wonder weapon" to my knowledge. At the same time Germany was gearing up for its assault with V1 and V2 weapons which couldnt actually guarantee hitting a city, let alone a ship. Why do you believe the USA would "give up Britain" what is the motivation behind these fantastic "Germany wins" scenarios?
 
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Having followed this thread for a while and just rereading all the posts. Here are my thoughts:

1) The German war time industrial base did not have the capacity to build a B-29 class bomber, let alone be operational by 1943. It is a common misunderstanding to assume that the B-29 was like any other plane. At the very least, Germany would need to create a magnesium industrial base to manufacture the lightweight parts that made the B-29 possible, among other things.
2) The most likely launching platform would be a HE-177 family aircraft. A four engine version seems more than doable. Alternatively, someone has mentioned the JU-488. This would be possible as well. An anti shipping four engine HE-177 carrying two HS-293 would have plenty of capacity for additional full to extend range out over the Atlantic.
3) Allied Air Craft Carriers - I don't see the Allies suddenly massing large fleet carriers to escort convoys in the face of anti shipping air attacks. Escort carriers are incredibly important against U-Boats which I believe would remain the number 1 threat against convoys. My rationale is that U-Boats carry a couple dozen torpedoes while an anti shipping aircraft is carrying two missiles and can loiter with the convoy for extended periods of time.
4) Overly Optimistic Expectations of Weapon System Effectiveness - Its pretty common to overstate the accuracy of precision and guided weapons especially during their infancy in the 1940's. IIRC - The HS-293 during training was about 50% accurate. That number will go down in combat. If just 1 in 4 missiles comes close enough to its target to do any damage, that seems like a poor return on investment.
5) Long Range Interception of Flight Paths - I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere, but the Allies would have been more than able to intercept the flight paths of the proposed anti-shipping formations from England, Newfoundland, Ireland, Iceland, and maybe the Azores. The aircraft to do this already exists in 1943, the Mosquito. Long range high altitude interceptors could be adapted from modifications already done for photo recon. Its hard to believe that un-escorted bombers out over the Atlantic would look forward to the prospect of a running battle with fighter Mossies.
6) Counter measures - This to me is a critical advantage for the convoy fleets. First off, electronic countermeasures against the HS-293 were developed and were remarkably effective during the war, pretty much ending the use of such weapons. Allied mastery of radar and radio warfare is a decided advantage here and the proposed anti shipping campaign would come to a quick end. Vision Obscuring - Since the German glide bombs were all vision guided, it would be relatively easy to use smoke screening to greatly reduce accuracy. An earlier comment suggested that this had never been done against air attacks, however, this is incorrect. Nazi defense forces were highly adept at using smoke pots to hide targets from view of the Eight Air Force daylight bombing force and greatly affected bombing accuracy. If this tactic can be used to affect bombing accuracy against large stationary industrial plants it certainly can be used to protect much smaller moving targets being targeted from a greater distance. It is possible that Germany would have developed radar self guided weaponry but not on a timeline any faster than the Allies in 1945.

I do believe that Germany could have fielded an effective anti shipping fleet based on the HE-177/277 in 1943, however, I also believe that the Allies would have effective counter measures in place fairly shortly limiting the success of such a fleet. Simple tactics such as aggressive smoke screening would hamper the use of vision based guidance systems almost immediately and the subsequent introduction of radar countermeasures and UK based long range interceptors would pretty much turn this into a failure before the end of the year.
 

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