There won't be a Schwinfurt-Regensburg mission if Japan runs wild in the Pacific through the end of 1942.
The example of Schwinfurt-Regensburg was to show that the US was not "managing" the fight in Europe without the P-51, at least the strategic bombing effort.
8th Air Force will be concentrated in the Pacific in an effort to contain the Japanese Navy.
Considering that the AF still was still under the illusion that high altitude bombers would be effective against warships, they certainly would have deployed to the Pacific. The deployment to Europe would most likely be delayed but the overall mission would not have changed nor the outcome in Europe be different, except possibly delayed. When they eventually deployed they would already be trained and experienced in wartime ops, so organization establishments and ops training would not have to be performed making the transitions more efficient.
Suppose America clearly lost some of the early battles in the Pacific .
Would the Europe first policy have endured ?
Yes it would. Let's assume that both the Battle of Coral Sea and Midway were tragic failures and all carriers were lost. By May 1942, the US had twelve operational battleships, nine of which were reasonably modern. Of these, eight modern ones could be deployed to the Pacific, four on the west coast and four at Hawaii. In addition, the US had over 7000 modern fighters, P-38s, P-39s, P-40s, P-51As, and F4Fs. 600 of these were the effective (in the Pacific) and long ranged P-38. A significant number of these fighters (especially the P-38s) could be transferred to the Pacific. Three carrier task forces would still be available (there would now be none in the Atlantic) the Wasp, Ranger, and Saratoga for raids and defensive support.
With a 800 fighters on Hawaii and 1200 fighters on the west coasts protecting four battle fleets in Hawaii and four battle fleets on the west coast, there would be no concern of the Japanese threatening the US. Australia and the Aleutians would be at risk (no problem with the Aleutians, the weather there is so nice) and certainly Guadalcanal would be risky if tried.
The Japanese would run wild for a good year, but I think that would have been acceptable and was possibly already planned for post Pearl Harbor.
Although the Finns did very well with their Buffalos, the B-239 delivered to them was quite a bit lighter than the F2A flown by the Navy and Marines. The Finns had different tactics and faced different opponents than the Allies in the Pacific.
Still, the speed and climb performance of the F2A, would probably be equal to or better than the F4F-3 all altitudes if the engines were the same, ditto with the F4F-4 all with equal equipment. It did have problems, as did many aircraft, but there is no reason to doubt that the Navy and Marine pilots, as they learned how to fight the Japanese, would have been equally effective in the F2A. Again, I have no insight on the ruggedness of the F2A versus the well documented ruggedness of the F4F. The flying characteristics of the F2A seem to be quite good and it is reported that the pilots loved flying it.
Drgondog, well stated.
Britain-Lancaster, without which their bombing campaign would have been severely hampered.
Good assessment. I still have the feeling that if the Brits did not have the Spitfire the early years of the war would have been much worse. As far as the Lanc is concerned, could the US have provided B-24s or B-17s to England in quantities sufficient to replace them?