Wich was the worst nation in the war?

[parsifal]

Hi soren, what Soviet loss records are they. AFAIK the Soviets have never revealed the full extent of their casualties

Anyway, Your figures dont add up to those given in a lot of source material.

I agree that the casualty figures most commonly accepted in the post war period were those posted by OKH in its situation reports, but for the reasons I have given previously these figures are now generally accepted as suspect (I am referring to the 2.5 million figure you quoted earlier). The more generally accepted figures are those prepred by the Replacement Army, who kept the most detailed (and accurate) records of German mobilzation (and losses) of any german organization during the war.

I can assure you that OKH gave reports on almost a daily basis to hitler, Whether or not they were deliberately falsified is an open question, I admit (but one that has been suggested by other reputable authors, and one that just kinda appeals to me personally), however the facts are that those reports have in the post war analysis been shown as almost certainly in error. Unfortunately, those same numbers in the postwar histories have tended to be accepted more or less verbatim by a lot of researchers, so even if your source is not the OKH records directly, there is a good chance that they are based on them. If you could name and produce your source, we may be able to cross check them for that or any other errors

I have a summary of these reports which are in English (my german is not so good). I have copied a summary page for you to see. It is hard to see, admittedly, but if you read it carefully, you will see the total casualties, from all sources was 6.1 million by wars end. This, incidentally are considered conservative numbers. As I said, there are some sources that take the figures even higher, but I dont buy those figures.

I cant be nearly so sure of Soviet casualties, but my figures are around the 12.2 million, so we are pretty much in agreement, except when you make claims of 15 million plus. There is no real evidence that I know of to support that, although there are some exaggerated claims made by some that have never been substantiated that i am aware of.

As Njaco points out, establishing a precise figure for casualties is a very difficult task, , and even harder for the Soviets, but in reality the figures you are quoting are not too bad, but still just a little low to be honest. Once we can arrive at some sort of agreed set of numbers, we can move forward with a more detailed analysis

 

[parsifal]

Sorry repeated myself, see the next post

 

[parsifal]

I should have added that the measure of an armies capability is not generally the casualty rates that it sustains, but rather the force structure that needs to achieve a point of equilibrium with an opponent. A very crude, but simple way of doing this is to compare the manpower needed to achieve a point of equilibrium. On the east front the Soviets showed that with a force structure of about 1.87 times that of the germans, they could achieve overwhelming victory. Using some guesswork, that would suggest that the point of balnce is somewhere in the area of 1.4:1, but probably less for the Infantry, for reasons previously given (concerning the superiority of the Panzerwaffe, and quite possiblly the LW as well).

 

[renrich]

I believe that any statistics on WW2 with their origin from the USSR are extremely suspect. The reasons are many fold. First, the Soviet military and political were impossible to separate. At one point in the war it may have been desirable to exaggerate casualties while later the opposite may have been true. Then the authorities might reverse themselves. Today, I suspect that the tendency is to exaggerate casualties and downplay the help from allies. Also, because of disorganisation, especially in the early going, much casualty information was probably inaccurate. I would suspect that German final returns insofar as it was possible are accurate. Studies of combat show that the most important motivating factor in good troop performance is small unit "togetherness" and the concept of "honor." An interesting treatise on the subject is "The Face of Battle," by John Keegan.

 

[stasoid]

There always been a confusion about Red Army vs Vermaht kill ratio. High soviet losses of 10 million total dead (wiki) are combined of two figures: KIA/MIA 6.6 mln + POWs died in captivity 3.6 mln.

The difference is that most of 5.5 mln german POWs made it home at the end but soviet ones didnt. So when you look at the total death of the Red Army you see a huge number of 10 million total loss, but when you count only those killed or missing on the battlefields you got a kill ratio of 1 to 1.5

 

[parsifal]

High Stasoid

I acknowledge your point about the numbers of Soviets killed whilst in captivity, but i am intersted in your 10 million figure for KIAs. Do you have a source other than wiki to back that up. Does Wiki provide any clue on its sources?

 

[Haztoys]

Great thread guys ....On the numbers ...How and why would you stand fast on the casualty rate of the war ...Russia and Germany did not tell all..As I'm sure other countrys padded numbers too...To say the Germans were better do to higher kill rate is very one sided... The Germans way of fighting was high tec and and not the same as the Russians ...The Russians was in mass low tec and keep falling back with land and man power to spare... The Japans way was there own ..The UK had there own ..The USA...and so on .... At times it did work for each country... And at times it did not... All in the same war...

You can't say the German numbers are right ...Do to not wanting to upset Hitler..And with all that was going on at the time with the Germans..I'm sure numbers were low on the list of things...... And nether was the Russians as Stalin did not want the world to know the numbers...And theres books that have the numbers all over the place...

Kill numbers on the eastern front will never be known...I'm sure the German kill numbers are higher ... The way the Russians do war made that happen.. And the German GI was the best in the world at that time...In the end who was the winner..

 

[stasoid]

parsifal, wiki always provides a source of information it publishes.

In this case, for German losses it refers to:

1 Rűdiger Overmans, Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg. Oldenbourg 2000. ISBN 3-486-56531-1, Richard Overy The Dictators: Hitler's Germany and Stalin's Russia (2004), ISBN 0-7139-9309-X

For soviet losses to: Vadim Erlikman, Poteri narodonaseleniia v XX veke: spravochnik. Moscow 2004. ISBN 5-93165-107-1; Mark Axworthy, Third Axis Fourth Ally. Arms and Armour 1995, p. 216. ISBN 1-85409-267-7

If you scroll down the page I posted earlier. Those numbers may vary 10-15% but look more realistic.

I also adds that: Total Soviet losses includes Deaths Partisans-250,000 and Deaths Militia-150,000 KIA/MIA above = Killed in action / Missing in action

 

[parsifal]

Thankyou, they sound quite good. Lets wait for Sorens reply

 

[Soren]

Parsifal,

Your guess on Soviet military losses (KIA + MIA, no wounded, POW's or civilians counted) many experts will have no problem with as the figures which pop up mostly are 12.68 million to 13.6 million, so you're close. However the continious discovery of mass grave pits containing unaccounted for Soviet soldiers seems to suggest that the true figure is even higher, up to 15.6 million some experts assume (Although the latter hasn't been forwarded as definite, just an assumption). A definite number which as been given though is by Harper Collins who lists total Soviet soldiers KIA MIA is atleast 14.5 million.

The opinion is that the Soviets have actually downplayed their losses in order to make themselves look as more durable in war, esp. later in the war. This was in part because the Soviets didn't want the US UN to think of them as easy push overs during the cold war, and to strenghten the idea that trying to invade the USSR would fail for anyone.


My sources for the statistics are listed below, but much of what I know comes from debating this issue many times with many VERY knowledgable people at other forums.

One thing which is indeed for sure is that the Soviet losses in terms of KIA MIA fighting against the Germans from 41 to 45 was no less than 12.68 million.

As for German losses (KIA MIA only) it varies extremely little between the trustworthy sources out there from between 3.25 to 3.5 million. Civilian losses range from 2.5 to 3.1 million. The reason for the large variation in civilian casualties is the fact there wasn't held near as closely track of them.

Sources:
J. Lee Ready
Harper Collins
Kinder
Encarta
Wallechinsky

 

[parsifal]

Hi Soren

Just putting aside the Soviet numbers for a short while,, the Ersatz heer returns I posted earlier show total killed as 2.0 million, and the total MIAs/captured as 2.4 million, for a total of 4.4 million, so your figures of 3.5 million is close to that figure. The numbers discharged as medically unfit amount to 1.8 million, which brings the total up to the 6.1 million satated in the EH returns. There is a discrepancy therefore of 0.9 million between your figures and those I am quoting.

If we were to accept the lower figure you are wanting, we would probably have to also accept the lower figures being touted by Stasoid, as the true extent of actual military casualties, ie, around the 10 million mark. this is because as Stasoid and others have pointed out the line between military and non military casualties are not well defined.

Something I have never been able determine is whether the Wehrmacht casualty figures include the Volksturm and other paramilitaries. I know that do include the Volksgrenadier formations, but the VS were not actually part of the regular army

I believe we might be actually arriving at some point of common ground. i dont know about you, but I am relieved

 

[Soren]

Parsifal remember that the figures I have quoted for both nations covers Soldiers KIA MIA only, wounded casualties in POW camps are not accounted for.

With number of wounded accounted for total German military casualties are around 6.8 million, where'as Soviet military casualties are around 27 million.

Now as to my own personal belief;

Well from many debates with many experts on the subject my figures are as follows:

Soviet military casualties 41-45:
14.5 million KIA MIA
13.4 million wounded

On top of this 7.5 million civilians were lost.

German military casualties 39-45:
3.25 million KIA MIA
3.65 million wounded

On top of this were 3 million civilians casualties.

 

[stasoid]

However the continious discovery of mass grave pits containing unaccounted for Soviet soldiers seems to suggest that the true figure is even higher, up to 15.6 million some experts assume

Discovery of a new mass grave doesnt add anything to the previous statistics because those bodies have already been accounted as Missing In Action.
My gues is that total body count reflected in those days documents were based on number of men recruited to the army minus those who never came back home.
With Gorbachev's Perestroika soviet WWII archives were opened for more detailed research. As a result of new studies official number of total losses (army + civilians) increased from Stalin's "official" 20 mln to 27 mln generally accepted today.

 

[parsifal]

Stasoid, I calculate that your figures are just a little less than Soren....My God, is it possible, do we have an agreed set of numbers???????

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

When you post something like this, please provide a link so we could see where it comes from, otherwhise it's your own BS.

Commonly known figures on the Eastern Front:

Soviet KIA: 6,600,000
Axis KIA: 4,428,000

Ratio: 1:1.5

Soviet POW: 5,200,000 Died in captivity: 3,600,000
Axis POW: 5,450,000 Died in captivity: 824,000

Eastern Front (World War II) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

One thing you have to remember is taht Axis includes all of the Axis forces fighting on the Eastern Front. Not just German forces. It includes the nations of:

Germany
Finland
Romania
Hungary
Italy
Slovakia
Croatia
Bulgaria

as well as Russian, Ukrainian, etc.. that formed units and fought under the German flag.

My understanding however is that Total German casualties were aprox. 4,000,000.

Also please tone down a bit with the flaming. We do not want this thread to be hijacked and eventually closed because people get all worked up and ****.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I will tell you what I can do.

I own complete copies of the OKW Diaries. I can peruse through them and see if it give us an "official" statistic for German losses on the East front.

This will take some time however because each volume contains several thousand pages and I will have to balance this time with my work and University studies as well.

 

[parsifal]

Adler

That would be great, and much appreciated. So as to be consistent, the numbers I would be interested in would be KIA, MIA, POW, wounded and not returned to service (or discharged as medically unfit). If it is possible, I would be interested in the numbers lost from all the services that were present on the eastern front, including the paramilitaries, in particular the Volk Sturm.


Using the above definition of casualties (ie KIA, MIA, POW, and discharged medically unfit), the minor Axis forces suffered approximately the following casualties, whilst in German service (Source Ellis):

Rumanian: 620000
Hungarian: 390000
Italian: 114000
Finland: 223000 (not including the Winter War)

Ellis also lists German and Soviet casualties for the eastern front. however these appear to be using a different standard to the one I want, and appear to have gaps regarding MIAs. But here are the numbers anyway

German: 5913750 (does not include MIAs)

Total Axis Military casualties (eastern front)

7260750

Soviet

Total Casualties (does not appear to include MIAs or wounded)

c11000000 dead, POW c 6000000
Total (not including MIAs or discharged medically unfit)

17000000

If Soviet Discharged Medially Unfit (DMU) are proportionally the same as the German numbers, given in the Ersatz casualty figures, then the the Soviet military casulaties are around 22million. Conversely, based on this source, the German casualty figures also go up, to 7.8 million, not including the minors.

So, if i were to express the casualties as a range, I would now have to say that eastfront military casualties for the Germans are somewhere btween 6.1 million and 7.8 million, and Soviet military casulaties are somewhere between 10 million (from Stasoid) and 22million (from Ellis). For the moment i am not going to accept Sorens claims for 27 million, because at that number, the Soviets demographically would be unable to field the 13.6 million soldiers that they did at the end of the war. I dont have alternative sources for the minors, so at the moment I am just going to have to accept them. if people feel they have better figures, please speak up.

At the moment, based on averages, that gives us the following approximate figures

Germany: 6.95 Million
Satellites: 1.347 million

Total Axis: 8.297 million

Soviet: 16.0 million

I still suspect the Soviet figures are higher than the true numbers, but that is what this set of numbers is saying.

All this does is show that the figures for East Front casualties are fairly erratic. The more that you dig, the more unclear it becomes

What are peoples opinions?

 

[Soren]

Discovery of a new mass grave doesnt add anything to the previous statistics because those bodies have already been accounted as Missing In Action.

No stasoid, they were NOT accounted for, that's the whole point and the reason behind many experts argueing that the total loss of Soviet soldiers is in the area of 15 million.

One needs to keep in mind that the Soviets continiously understated their own losses during the entire war to heighten moral, and even more so after the war. The battle of Kursk is a good example, the Soviets played down their losses in this battle immensly and claimed they fought and won over hundreds upon hundreds of German Tigers, in reality however there were only a mere 10 Tigers present during the entire battle... A far cry from the many hundreds the Soviets claimed were there.

Furthermore the Ferdinand or Elefant which gained a bad reputation because of that battle did in actuality do very well, achieving a 10+ to 1 kill/loss ratio. The only shortcoming of the tank proved to be its lack of an MG.

And this gross understatement of losses the Soviets continued with throughout the war, and esp. during the latter part of the war.

In the Battle of Berlin alone the Soviets lost more that 350,000 men (AFTER they had bombarded the city causing most of the Greman casualties), where'as the Germans lost less than 200,000, but on top of that many thousands of civilians were killed by the heavy Soviet bombardment of the city.

 

[Soren]

Parsifal,

The 27 million is including wounded, or actually the number of men treated for wounds by Soviet doctors, so some were more serious than others and many probably went back to fight.

However the total Soviet soldiers KIA MIA is atleast 12.68 million, where'as the number of Germans KIA MIA cannot be any higher than 3.5 million and is most likely around 3.25 million. These are the generally agreed upon facts, a sort of middle ground or Median.

 

[Soren]

the Soviets demographically would be unable to field the 13.6 million soldiers that they did at the end of the war.

That's untrue Parsifal, the Soviets could very easily have mustered that, just take a look at the population count, this is no small country.