20 MM Hispano HE
Muzzle Velocity- 860 M/S
Velocity @ 100Ms- 804 M/S
Velocity @ 500 Ms-606 M/S
50 BMG AP
MV- 863 M/S
100M-841M/S
500M-767 M/S
These are significant drop offs for the 20 mm. My calculation of energy in Joules shows that kinetic energy for the 20 mm at muzzle velocity is 3.2 times the kinetic energy of the 50 cal at muzzle velocity. However, at 500 meters kinetic energy of the 20 mm is only 2.01 times the 50 cal. The Navy indicated this number was 2.5. I think they were calculating momentum, which is the value I came up with when I calculated momentum.
Putting these numbers into Williams calculations I got the following ratios of damage at various ranges for .50 cal vs. 20mm.
Muzzle 4.46 to 1
500 ft 4.3 to 1
1000 ft 4.0 to 1 (est)
1500 ft 3.5 to 1
This falls into the area of what I had been using, although this is still only a certain thumbnail using momentum and not energy. This is still an educated guess.
I think, by making some simple assumptions we can answer the question of power vs rate of fire. Comparing two cases we can see the impacts. Case one, heavy projectile 100% kill with two hits (can't use one, the probabilities go to one), slow rate of fire 50 rounds/sec. Case two, gun has one third probability of kill (need six hits for 100% kill), and three times rate of fire of case one 150 rounds/sec. There are no energies and velocities deltas for all ranges. First I'll fix firing time and vary accuracy. This will be somewhat redundant to analysis to what I have already posted, I am sorry for that but I wanted to zero out all the undefined variables and do, basically a one to one comparison.
Test case 1. 2% accuracy, two second firing time, the probability of the case one gun hitting 2 round out of 100 is 64%. At 64% kill probability it will take case two gun 1.04 seconds, getting 6 six hits. Advantage case one.
Test case 2. 5% accuracy, two second firing time, the probability of case one gun landing 2 round out of 100 is 96%. At a 96% kill probability, it will take case two gun .71 seconds, getting 6 hits. Advantage case two.
Test case 3. 10% accuracy, two second firing time, the probability of case one gun landing 2 round out of 100 is 99.97% (I have to go to these many digits to detect difference. At this accuracy, there is effectively a 100% kill probability). At 99.97 probability of kill, it will take case two .58 seconds, getting 6 hits, a big advantage over case two.
Now I will fix accuracy and vary firing time. I am choosing 5% accuracy.
Test case 1. 5% accuracy, one second firing time. Case one gun will hit the target with 2 rounds out of 50 with a 72% probability. At that probability of kill, Case two will hit the target with 6 rounds in .94 sec compared to 1 sec, a small advantage with case one.
Test case 2. 5% accuracy, two second firing time. Case one gun will hit the target with 2 rounds out of 100 with a 96% probability. At that probability of kill, Case two will hit the target with 6 rounds in 1.5 sec compared to 2 sec, a larger advantage with case two.
Test case 3. 5% accuracy, three second firing time. Case one gun will hit the target with 2 rounds out of 100 with a 99.6% probability. At that probability of kill, Case two will hit the target with 6 rounds in 1.9 sec compared to 3 sec, almost half the time of case one.
This analysis indicates that, mathematically, except for poor accuracy (long ranges?) and short time of firing, and all power/velocities/weight being equal, the lower power, higher firing gun has definite advantages over the slower firing high power gun. Advantage of the faster firing gun improves with accuracy and with firing time. If you were making a decision on these two cases, all things being equal except for rate of fire and projectile power, you would choose the fast firing gun. It allows a kill at less firing time over a wider operating environment, an important capability
The real world is not this clean, and unknowns and uncertainties are rampant. But, using all of this analysis, it still appears to me that the F-86, over varying accuracies and firing, is roughly equivalent in probability of kill versus firing time as the F9F Panther, against another fighter. It certainly is not vastly inferior.