That certainly changes the assessment of the D.520 in my eye. Do you know if these changes were implemented in production aircraft?
I hadn't thought of the use of the wind tunnel in improving engine intakes and fixtures, that's a very interesting detail. Seems like it was a very promising use.
Some changes allegedly went on Vichy D520s to make up for speed loss due to wear or parts that couldn't be produced like in 1940, the use of the 12Y-49 engine was the most well-known and systematic change. However, while they made perfect sense in Vichy's situation, I'm not sure they would have been simply retrofitted in an undefeated France.
I rather suspect that they would be part of various packages introduced during production, for example during the switch to D523s with 12Y-51 engines or D524s with 12Z engines. Additionally, there may not have been many baseline 12Y-45 D520s left to upgrade by the time these changes would have been implemented (maybe late 1940). They may have been lost to attrition in the following months of 1940-1941.
We also have little or no idea of what the effects of what a partial invasion of France would be. Where would the front lines stabilize? How far from the front lines are the factories and how much would moving the production lines disrupt things? Plans were made for moving much of the H-S Factory in addition to setting up a 2nd factory but 2nd factories take months to set up and get into large scale production. Setting up a 2nd factory also needs to be, are you setting up shadow factory for an existing engine or for the "new" engine still under development that may need minor tooling changes?
There may be no BoB under this scenario but an Aug-Sept-Oct French Blitz could either take out a number of factories or force moves to remote areas of France.
View attachment 899371
I don't know how fully representative this map is but it looks superficially at least like France has
some factories down in the West and Southwest, and some in Provence.
One other question that still stands out for me (and I hope someone here can answer) is are the French fighters going to get two speed or two stage superchargers in time. In 1940 the best French and Allied fighters can hold their own against Bf 109E and Bf 110 in a tactical an operational war. Against the Bf 109F (and later) and FW 190 this is going to become necessary.
France showed interest in British radar sets even before the war kicked off and started receiving sets slightly before the battle. It would take time to establish a system as good as in the British Isles, but it would happen. Understandably this means that the aerial battle of France would have less favourable kill ratios than in the historical BoB, with the caveat that at least some 200 German pilots (including aces like Mölders) would have been sent to Canada and would be permanently lost to the Luftwaffe. These less favourable conditions are partially compensated by the AdA adding themselves to British airpower and the British Isles being effectively undisturbed. If instead the Germans seek to strike both France and Britain (since they should hold Belgian and Dutch coasts), they will disperse their forces.
As of May/June 1940 the orders for French domestic fighters were 2205 D52X, 1000 VG 3X (including or excluding 400 Allison VG32s as firm orders?) and 400 Bloch 155s to which were added an order for 270 Bloch 155s on May 28th as the loss of the Méaulte factory making Potez 63.11s allowed G-R to produce more 14N engines instead of 14Ms. Another 250 Bloch 155s could be added depending on performance.
The Bloch were assembled at Chateauroux-Déols and Bordeaux-Mérignac, the VG 32s would be built at Clermont-Ferrand (factory online for December 1940), the Hispano VG3X at Sartrouville (first aircrafts in June 1940), the D520 at Toulouse, Tarbes-Ossun (coming online in Summer 1940, had received a first set of 50 fuselages) and a third line was to be prepared by the Chausson company with underground facilities in the Ariège region. Of these only the Sartrouville factory was particularly exposed (Parisian region).
Regarding engines, G-R types were built at Boulevard Kellerman in Paris (the latter was dismantled to be moved in June 1940 given German advance) with an associated forge shop and foundry in Gennevilliers, the shadow factories in Le Mans (assembly at Ponthierry, and one bombproof factory to be completed in August) which was being reset to produce 14Ns in July 1940, and the SNCM factory in Gennevilliers. Peugeot was also setting up 4 facilities near Bordeaux with an underground assembly base
For H-S types, current production was at Bois-Colombes and was being moved to an underground quarry on the outskirts of Paris, Fordair expected to come online in September/October 1940 (Bordeaux and Poissy, the latter being near Paris), the H-S underground factory at Jonzac (Bordeaux region), and another factory in Tarbes.
For accessories, the B-G company (spark plugs, magnetos, gyros, ignition harnesses) in Paris had a new plant near completion in the department of Gironde, Turbomeca (S-P superchargers) is presently in Billancourt in Paris but was rushing to Southern France. Aircraft weapons were generally not built in and North of Paris.
All of the factories not in Paris are to the South of the West so are not particularly vulnerable. For H-S the parisian facilities account for about 40% of the sustained production capacity to be obtained in 1941, unknown for G-R engines. However, the loss of raw material facilities in northern France reduced production by 60% in June 1940 so imports would have been necessary if France lost these facilities.
Regarding the actual frontline though, short of making an unrecognizable French Army which is much better at maneuver warfare, the main way to avoid mass encirclements and a quick defeat is to reinforce the Sedan-Monthermé sectors which were broken through OTL and/or have a mass of maneuver able to quickly counterattack in this area, so that the Germans are forced to fight a battle of attrition instead of being enable to reach the Channel (historians generally assess that this would be done by having the equivalent of the 7th Army in reserve in Champagne instead of going to Bréda, and getting a couple divisions from behind the Maginot Line).
The implication of this scenario is that the French may be able to stop the Germans and reshuffle forces over time without having to hurriedly retreat the entire Army Group 1. Optimistically the French then hold a line going from the Maginot Line to the Meuse or slighly behind it and then the Dyle in Belgium (no loss of French industry), more likely they would have to retreat back to the Escaut river in Belgium (French industries still largely safe). If they cannot block the Germans in place and have to trade space then they would likely hold a Somme-Aisne-Maginot Line where they would lose several northern raw material centers (Lille region), although they could save that region and still hold on the Somme-Aisne rivers as a repeat to WW1.
Somewhat related, a Merlin III, XII or 45 will be worth much more on a D.520 than on a Hurricane; just something to consider.
However, the French gave up on Merlin-powered D520s in November 1939 and testing of the D521 powered with this engine ceased in March 1940 as it was deemed too dangerous by its test pilot and the French focused on other projects rather than implementing the changes needed to make the aircraft work (they had not been informed of the fact the Merlin rotated inversely to the HS-12Y). They would have had to run another round of trials, while the Merlin would still be in demand for British aircrafts and possibly Amiot bombers first.