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Disagree. How long do you think an Allied garrison is going to last at Moresby, being wedged between a mountain range and the sea? If the Japanese control New Guinea, they would be able to neutralise Northern Australian air and Naval bases and effectively cut sea lanes to Northern and North Eastern Australia. How are you able to supply your "toe hold" in Port Moresby? How are you going to launch a seaborne invasion of Timor?IMO New Guinea had little value to the Japanese or Allied war effort. Leave the entire island to wither on the vine with only a toe hold remaining at Port Moresby.
And Japanese air and ground units historically anniliated in New Guinea would be able to concentrate its forces on the Allied effort to take Timor. Where is your invasion launched from, Darwin? Any invasion force would be fighting its way from Australia to Timor and I don't think there would be enough P-38's and Beaufighters to escort them the whole way. Throw into the mix IJN surface units from Sourabaya and you would have a reverse "Battle of the Bismarck Sea" on your hands.U.S. and Australian Army divisions historically piddled away in Northern New Guinea should be used to seize Timor.
The USAAF may have had plenty of aircraft in 1942, but not in this theatre, and certainly not enough with a decent range required in your scenario.From there you hop west through the East Indies, building /rebuilding airfields as you go. The U.S. Army had plenty of aircraft even during 1942 so there's no excuse for not having air superiority. East Indies Oil fields can be bombed from Timor. However the South Pacific offensive should plan to seize the oilfields with ground troops.
The first 2/3 (roughly) of the 41st arrived in April, the rest arrived in May. The last group includes 3/4s of the Divisional artillery. The division needs months of training.U.S. 41st Infantry Division arrived in Australia during April 1942.
U.S. 32nd Infantry Division arrived in Australia during May 1942.
Standard US Army Doctrine at the time was that a Division needed to train together for one year. The 32nd Division was originally earmarked for Europe and in fact it's combat engineer battalion (it's oldest existing unit) was in mid Ocean when the rest of the Division was ordered cross country from Massachusetts to the west coast for deployment to Australia. A different combat engineer battalion was attached to the unit and 3,000 men fresh from boot camp joined the Division to make up numbers in San Francisco just days before boarding the ships. You don't bring up such a hodge-podge of units and replacements/reinforcements up to combat standard in a couple of months no matter which general is in charge.
Old Dougie has a lot to answer for, untrained troops from the US is not one of them.