"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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and


The second is long overdue so a great move
The photo in the article dosnt seem to show the amount of damage i would expect from a missile strike
 
Ukrainian scouts captured the Russians


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=majspF7w-mE&ab_channel=Kanal13

From the web: 1:00 - First Russian soldier (RU1) surrenders 1:05 - RU1 is asked if others are with him 1:35 - RU1 says there are some others (40~) 50m in front 1:37 - AFU soldier (AFU1) places remotely detonated explosive on RU1's back so that he does what they want and doesn't wander off. 1:37 - AFU1 says if RU1 does what he says and returns, he will take the explosive off and the POW will be exchanged, live a long life etc. (I'm not sure if this is like a psychological trick to get him to do what they say or if they really placed some kind of Explosive on him. You can clearly see it at 3:58, not sure what that is tbh.) -RU1 is told to walk 50 steps to the front, to see if he can spot / hear anything than come back. 4:33 - RU1 brings back second soldier (RU2) 4:50 - AFU tells RU2 they are actually PMC "Veteran" disguised as AFU servicemen (I think he's n***ing with him?) 5:10 - RU2 says there are corpses everywhere, AFU1 answers that they (Russians) are being thrown like meat. 5:21 - AFU1 says they (his group) are khohols, RU2 understands his "new" situation. 5:40 - Not sure who they sent out this time, but a new POW appear (RU3) 5:50 - RU3 is wounded in the knee, AFU1 offers him to get closer and rest, RU3 is taken POW at gunpoint. 6:30 - Fourth Russian (RU4) surrenders, says he had a comrade with him 6:45 - RU3(?) says he understands his situation, AFU isn't kidding around. RU3 says his last position is empty now. He also mentions he is former prison inmate. 7:26 - Firefight in the distance begins 8:08 - Callsign "Pasta" is told by AFU1 to get the prisoners out of there.
 
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... which prompts the question: how many S-300 missiles do they have left?
A lot !!!

It was reported they they had about 8000 at the start of the war. Some of them are 30 years old, that may be the reason to use them in the ground atack role.
Despite that, it's estimated they still have somewhere between 6000 and 7000.
 
Google maps already updated :tearsofjoy:

FzNXHx9WIAUEZHE.jpg
 
But the F-16 with a newbie pilot against a MiG with an experienced pilot is probably going to come off second best almost every time.

BiffF15 please comment
Don't be so sure just how "newbie" the Ukrainian pilots will be. They will certainly have some heavy stick time during their training. Supposition on my part but I'm guessing the Ukrainian pilots will be training against "aggressor" pilots. Probably hearsay but Russian pilots have fewer hours of training than their western counterparts.
 
Ukrainian scouts captured the Russians in the forest


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=majspF7w-mE&ab_channel=Kanal13

From the web: 1:00 - First Russian soldier (RU1) surrenders 1:05 - RU1 is asked if others are with him 1:35 - RU1 says there are some others (40~) 50m in front 1:37 - AFU soldier (AFU1) places remotely detonated explosive on RU1's back so that he does what they want and doesn't wander off. 1:37 - AFU1 says if RU1 does what he says and returns, he will take the explosive off and the POW will be exchanged, live a long life etc. (I'm not sure if this is like a psychological trick to get him to do what they say or if they really placed some kind of Explosive on him. You can clearly see it at 3:58, not sure what that is tbh.) -RU1 is told to walk 50 steps to the front, to see if he can spot / hear anything than come back. 4:33 - RU1 brings back second soldier (RU2) 4:50 - AFU tells RU2 they are actually PMC "Veteran" disguised as AFU servicemen (I think he's n***ing with him?) 5:10 - RU2 says there are corpses everywhere, AFU1 answers that they (Russians) are being thrown like meat. 5:21 - AFU1 says they (his group) are khohols, RU2 understands his "new" situation. 5:40 - Not sure who they sent out this time, but a new POW appear (RU3) 5:50 - RU3 is wounded in the knee, AFU1 offers him to get closer and rest, RU3 is taken POW at gunpoint. 6:30 - Fourth Russian (RU4) surrenders, says he had a comrade with him 6:45 - RU3(?) says he understands his situation, AFU isn't kidding around. RU3 says his last position is empty now. He also mentions he is former prison inmate. 7:26 - Firefight in the distance begins 8:08 - Callsign "Pasta" is told by AFU1 to get the prisoners out of there.

It was a twig.
 

I'll believe it when someone besides the Russians reports it.
 
Defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said
a) 'that the use of Storm Shadow and HIMARS against Crimea would mark the Wests full involvement in the conflict'.
b) He also warned that this would lead to immediate strikes against Ukrainian Decision making centres.
c) Believes that Kyiv is preparing a strike against Crimea using the British and American weapons

Personal thoughts
a) Who does he think he's kidding. If the West were flly invovled then they would command the air and those nice neat Russian trenches and strongpoints target practice
b i) That would be a nice change from targeting schools and Hospitals.
b ii) Isn't that what he has been trying to do all along without any real success? e.g. How many Generals has Ukraine lost vs Russian Generals
c) I think everyone will agree that he is a little slow off the mark on this one

Overall thought
Russia seem to be getting more than a little worried about the attacks on Crimea's communication links, they must be starting to hurt.
 
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... which prompts the question: how many S-300 missiles do they have left?

....
The ECM will also be critical. The backbone to the Russian AA equipment seems to be the S300 and S400 systems. If the ECM can deal with the threat of these systems then that could be a game changer in the control of the air.

I would expect that the Ukrainians and US ECM manufacturers have been working on this together since last February using examples of those SAMS in Ukrainian custody.

I expect the Ukrainians would have had their own (Russian or Russian based) ECM modified in very short order as being on the receiving end of those weapons provides incentives that the US designers sitting fat, dumb and happy in USA lack.
 
With the bridge out there's only one way for Ukraine to get onto Crimea, the narrow isthmus at Armyansk. Russia will be fortifying this small 5-10 mile wide spot. First the Ukrainians must take Melitopol.
The other way is to take out the bridges and starve the Russians in Crimea of the supplies they need. I am not foolish enough to believe that they can be starved of food, but Military equipment tends to be heavy and bulky. Keeping these supplies in stock when faced by a lack of bridges for rail and road will be a significant logistical challenge, something Russia have consistently shown as being a weakness in their military
When faced with possible isolation Russia does have a tendency to retreat. Crimea is very important in a many different ways and Putin will not let it go easily but keeping thousands of troops fully supplied a significant challenge
 

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