"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (13 Viewers)

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I would expect that minutes after the Russians made that threat China and Iran said that means all ships carrying our cargo to Russia become legitimate targets for the Ukrainians so if you do that we will instantly stop all shipments to Russia.
 
Ok...this is really weird. Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St.Petersburg, not in Belarus...meanwhile, the Kremlin says it's not tracking Prigozhin's movements (yeah...right!).


Coming soon to a news stream near you,."Prigozhin dies in mystery fall from window"....perhaps?
 

I wouldn't be surprised if he's already dead. Russia's a big country, plenty of room to torture him to death and no one's the wiser.
 

That's the reason why I think he will be disappeared.
 
It will be interesting to see where the war is in July 2024.

Regarding the Ukrainian air force, by July 2024 the AFU should have several dozen F-16s while most of their surviving Soviet-era MiGs and Sukhois will be close to worn out. Beyond F-16s what other NATO aircraft types do we expect Ukraine to be operating by July 2024? Perhaps Apaches? Gripens or Eurofighters? By July 2024, the Ukrainian army should have some Abrams MBTs alongside a growing fleet of Leopard 2s and Leopard 1s. I expect by July 2024 Ukrainian has developed and produced their own ATACAMs or long range precision rocket artillery. Vehicles and equipment for breaching minefields and crossing rivers and defences will be well sorted. Other tech in widespread use will be further advances in night fighting and drones. The Ukrainian navy will have a growing force of fast attack craft as well as (though this may be wishful thinking) the beginnings of an amphibious capability to land in Crimea.

Meanwhile, by July 2024, the Russians have to be on the ropes in materials, tanks, manpower, money and public support. Presumably Europe will survive another winter without Russian natural gas, and public support for Ukraine across the West will remain strong. Where do we think the front lines will be in a year's time?
 
If there's any tank that will need ERA it's the Leopard 1s. The Leo1 was made in an era where it was assumed no armour was capable of stopping anti-tank rounds so the emphasis was instead on mobility and firepower. I wouldn't put the even the frontal armour of a Leo1 up against a BMP-3's 100mm gun, and the Russian 30mm autocannon on the earlier BMPs and BTRs should slice through the Leo1's side armour.



That's why the Canadians added applique armour to theirs, shown below.



So, I'd be packing on extra armour and protection onto the Leo1 before sending it to the front.
 
In a Leo 1 I'd be more worried about mines
Good point. For Afghanistan Canada added increased armour plate to the bottom to protect the crew in case of IEDs and mines. Apparently our guys survived this hit, for example.



Here's a good article about Ukraine's upcoming use of the Leopard 1s from a Canadian perspective.

Presumably, Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 will need additional bottom protection and mine attachments, apart from Contact-1 reactive armor and slat armor.

 
Yuan, rupees, rials, piastres, colored stones, glass beads, shells... anything, even money to play Monopoly, now Putin will receive everything except real money. And all this, of course, strictly according to plan.
 

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