"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (25 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine Situation Report: Russia's Localized Offensive “Failing,” Ukraine Claims

Fierce fighting continues in and around the town of Avdiivka, while one Ukrainian commander explains why he is confident of a Russian defeat there.

www.thedrive.com

I don't see why the Russians are focused on Avdiivka. The priority campaign should be cutting off and destroying the Ukrainian salient that's heading towards Tokmak in southern Ukraine, itself only about 70 km (43 miles) north-east of Melitopol. If Melitopol falls, so does Crimea; whereas if Avdiivka is ignored, there's no big repercussions.

 

[Ascent]

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714228403635683789?t=n_MLEf22uqjdO1LLIn1xwQ&s=19

The Russian airforce is having a bad day.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I agree.
There will be little if any thermal signature due to the overspray covering the surfaces being at sea temperatures, they are almost certainly painted with modern radar absorbing paints, there are few reflective surface and the colour will blend in with the background making identification using the Mk 1 eyeball difficult.

The engine will give a thermal signature, no?

 

[Ascent]

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714258740684157116?t=0R9zXiEbljrTgZppO0C0oA&s=19

Further to the Russian Air forces bad day, looks like ATACMS is in theatre.

 

[Warspite63]

From the Beeb: Ukraine 'destroys Russian helicopters in Berdyansk and Luhansk'

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine on Tuesday claimed to have carried out one of the most destructive attacks on Russian air assets since the beginning of the war, as a U.S. official revealed that the longer-range ballistic missiles sought for months by Kyiv had been delivered quietly and are in battlefield use.

Ukraine's Special Operations Forces claimed it destroyed nine Russian helicopters at two airfields in Russia-occupied regions in a nighttime attack on targets in eastern and southern Ukraine.

It also hit military equipment, an air-defense system, ammunition warehouses and runways, a statement said. Dozens of Russian military personnel were injured in the attack codenamed Operation Dragonfly, it said.

The claim came hours before an official said the United States had made good on a promise by President Joe Biden to his Ukrainian counterpart last month that it would provide the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS.

Ukraine claims a major strike on Russian airfields and thanks US for providing long-range missiles

Ukraine claims to have carried out one of the most destructive attacks on Russian air assets since the beginning of the war.

apnews.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/17/atacms-missile-ukraine-russia-war/

Looks like the version delivered to Ukraine is the M39 missile with inertial guidance. They where reportedly retired with some being updated to M57E1.
It seems they are now being properly recycled

This is the oldest ATACMS variant. Shortest range, no GPS, but each with 950 M74 APAM submunitions, Russian sources published pictures of at least 3 missiles ... so the Russians got hit with 2,850 bomblets.

 

[MiTasol]

if the engine exhausts into the water below the hull it should produce zero thermal signature.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

View attachment 742056
if the engine exhausts into the water below the hull it should produce zero thermal signature.

You don't think the cylinder heat will show up anyway? IR sensors can see engine heat through ship's armor even though the stacks are the hottest.

 

[MiTasol]

I was not aware that IR is that sensitive but I am sure the Ukrainians would have taken that into consideration. The strategic positioning of other components should should be able to mask that to a large extent given it is not a large engine so would not throw a large heat signature. Water cooled exhaust manifolds are not new so that covers most of that part of the problem

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I was not aware that IR is that sensitive but I am sure the Ukrainians would have taken that into consideration. The strategic positioning of other components should should be able to mask that to a large extent given it is not a large engine so would not throw a large heat signature. Water cooled exhaust manifolds are not new so that covers most of that part of the problem

How large is the engine? Do you know?

manta22 , can you comment on IR sensitivity based on your experience?

 

[MiTasol]

No but it is a small vessel so there is not much room to fit a large engine.

I would expect both the engine and the exhaust to be water cooled so that the heat signature is kept as low as practical, especially as you indicate that engine signatures can be seen through the hull unless active measures are taken to minimise them.

Maybe I am giving the Ukrainians too much credit for taking such measures but I doubt it. Their learning curve has been short and very steep but they sure appear to have got top marks in every subject so far.

 

[manta22]

How large is the engine? Do you know?

manta22 , can you comment on IR sensitivity based on your experience?

IR sensitivity depends on a number of things- wavelength, range, humidity (attenuation), bandwidth, collection area, and the type of detector. A cryogenically cooler IR detector can see differences in temperature of millidegrees.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

No but it is a small vessel so there is not much room to fit a large engine.

I would expect both the engine and the exhaust to be water cooled so that the heat signature is kept as low as practical, especially as you indicate that engine signatures can be seen through the hull unless active measures are taken to minimise them.

Maybe I am giving the Ukrainians too much credit for taking such measures but I doubt it. Their learning curve has been short and very steep but they sure appear to have got top marks in every subject so far.

I'm just thinking that even if you dissipate heat with water, that water itself will be warmed and show a trail. I don't know, I'm no expert, but I do know that heat doesn't die, it only spreads until it assumes background -- but a vehicle going 30-40 kts is probably going to leave a trail of warmed water, even if the washing is 100% effective in hiding the engine itself, which it won't be.

 

[GrauGeist]

We should keep in mind that Russia claims to have shot down "scores" of Ukrainian missiles during the Kerch bridge "terrorist attack".

So it appears the Sea Baby could have an IR signature the size of a battleship and be painted dayglo pink...

 

[Admiral Beez]

15 minute submarine launched ICBM flight time to Moscow. IIRC.

Thunking back to this. But can the US stop the Russian ICBM counter strike?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Thunking back to this. But can the US stop the Russian ICBM counter strike?

Probably not.

 

[GrauGeist]

Thunking back to this. But can the US stop the Russian ICBM counter strike?

The old theory had it that U.S. countermeasures could stop nearly 90% - however, that was then, this is now.

While there is debate between camps as to how well the U.S. would do against Russia in a slugfest (prior to Ukraine), the one constant was the U.S. constantly honing it's early warning system to counter Soviet/Russian nukes.

Seeing as how well mighty Russia and it's equipment is faring in Ukraine, I honestly question how well Russia's ICBM system is maintained and would perform.

 

[SaparotRob]

I watch Jake Broe's YouTube channel. He was a U.S.A.F. Missileer. He answered a question on this topic. Everyday, a warning light would indicate a fault in one of the many silos in his charge. It would be addressed immediately. After watching Russia's performance in maintenance, he is not too worried about the ground launched portion of Russia's nuclear triad. He doesn't completely blow it off either.

 

[Token]

IR sensitivity depends on a number of things- wavelength, range, humidity (attenuation), bandwidth, collection area, and the type of detector. A cryogenically cooler IR detector can see differences in temperature of millidegrees.

An example to put this into something the average person can get their head around. When you walk barefoot down a carpet, your feet contact the carpet for a second or two each step, transferring your body heat to the carpet, changing the carpet temps where you make contact by some very small amount. This temperature change is a small fraction of a degree C, sometimes only a few millidegrees, or a few 10's of millidegrees. Now that may not mean much to you, unless you already have a concept of what is happening.

A picture helps get the concept across. In the following image my youngest daughter walked on the carpet at a normal walking pace about 30 seconds before this image was captured. Her footprints, visible in this image, are the resultant temperature change to the carpet from the momentary contact of each step. The sensor used was a FLIR Indigo Systems, Merlin Mid IR (3-5 u), cryogenically cooled InGaAs.

Another example, same imager. In this image I reached out and put my thumb on the barrel of this camera lens and counted to 2, so roughly a 2 second contact with my skin. The bright spot in the image is the temperature change caused by that contact.

Think about how little, minute, the temperature change was in each of those events, and yet it is still clearly visible.

T!