"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

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Greg Boeser said:
Fear of escalation is a blanket term for "We don't want to get dragged into this."
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I think it's more complicated than that. Many countries are trying, through Ukraine support, sanctions, increasing defence spending etc., to push Putin into some kind of settlement. The problem is that those same actions may force him into a corner without any exits which may lead him to believe that nuclear is the only option. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, wants to play a game of chicken regarding the itchiness of Putin's finger on the big red button because the outcomes are so entirely unpredictable.

It's all about messaging. Unfortunately, previous communication mechanisms that worked for us in the past (e.g. via diplomatic means) seem to have fallen apart (see an earlier post in this thread on that particular issue). The entire Russian diplomatic corps has merely become mouthpieces for the Kremlin's message. If there's no reasonable means of dialogue, then there's no way to message other than by actions...and it's all too easy for actions to be misinterpreted, either accidentally or deliberately.
 
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I wonder if NATO SSNs are closely tracking, more than usual Russian Boomers just in case. The 2020s was a bad decade for Britain to run down its attack sub fleet down from ten in 2010 to seven active boats today.

In the 1930s the bad guys were arming up and the decadent West was running down their forces.
 
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But the SSBN fleet is only part of the problem. There's also the Strategic Missile Forces which is a separate branch of the Russian armed forces but looks after all the land-based nuclear weapons, which are mostly mobile. Then there's the dual-use platforms like Russian air force strategic bombers. Some air-launched missiles can have either a nuclear or conventional warhead, which makes it problemmatic to detect when the risk is increasing.
 
The Biden administration announced a $425 million package Friday for Ukraine, planning to deliver to Kyiv a shipment of artillery rounds, small arms ammunition, air defense munitions and cold weather gear ahead of winter.

The Defense Department said $300 million will be provided from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, in which the U.S. will buy weapons systems from the defense industry before delivering them to Ukraine.

Those funds will be used for the purchase of laser-guided munitions to counter drones, according to the Pentagon.

Another $125 million in the package will be pulled directly from defense stocks.

That includes more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades, 12 transport trucks, winter gear, demolition equipment, munitions for missile and rocket defense systems and 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds.

US announces $425 million Ukraine aid package

The Biden administration announced a $425 million package Friday for Ukraine, planning to deliver to Kyiv a shipment of artillery rounds, small arms ammunition, air defense munitions and cold weath…
thehill.com
 
I'm not convinced that any of that stuff still works. But the Russian navy.... those nukes will still be funded when the rest of the country goes to crap.
 
Admiral Beez said:
Is that the short ranged, cluster bomb version? I want to see the Kerch bridge killing one.
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I believe so. It is reported that Ukraine only has the M39 (ATACMS Block I) missile 950 M74 anti-personnel and anti‑materiel bomblets each. Still will be useful though.
 
GrauGeist said:
The one thing I am curious of, though, is the "fear of escalation" I've been seeing mentioned in various articles.

Just how is Russia going to be able to escelalate (in a non-nuclear fashion) if they can't even make substantial gains in Ukraine?
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1- Russians have downed several Romanian Air Force and Army Aviation birds...

2- Bad historical relations with Iran's people.

3- Dozen of foreign citizens were killed / injured / captured by both sides.

4- Iran has shot down the Ukrainian plane.

Of above, I think only Iranian are eager to fight the Russians, as not even a single bullet or missile ever hit anywhere of russian soil, nor any spy were slaughtered / embassies were sieged.

All talk of they using their forces, is just nonsense bullshit to feel their citizens ears and shou their mouths.
 
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