"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

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I doubt Ukraine is going to let Russia rest and refit this winter.


I'm speculating here, but I suspect this winter might benefit Ukraine more than Russia. Although the advantage might not translate into much territory changing hands.

After the failures in the south, Ukraine shifted offensive operations towards small unit infantry tactics with minimal armour and plenty of artillery. These are easier to hide in the preparatory phase, easier to coordinate at a tactical level and easier to support with indirect fire and FPV drones.

Ukraine has also reportedly been training heavily for night infiltration operations. Several outlets have reported some of the newly formed Ukrainian brigades (not even SOF, just regular troops) have an advantage over Russian forces in terms of night vision equipment and thermal observation gear.

We may not see much of it, but I think there's going to be a lot of night time trench raiding in the next few months. Incremental, line to line stuff.


On a broader level, the Ukrainians are still having clear problems with field and tactical level communications and a reluctance for some commanders to show battlefield initative, which is slowing things down further.

Multiple accounts from returned foreign fighters and from English speaking Ukrainians report that while intra-unit communications have improved there are still coordination problems between units, particularly between different branches. One account mentioned Ukrainian forces pushing well into Russian defensive lines around Robotyne during an night attack in September, but then not being able to advance further because they couldn't get artillery support (due to fear of counter-battery fire) and couldn't call in engineering and specality units to help them exploit the breach (due to lack of comms).

Combined arms, even nearly two years into a shooting war, is HARD.
 
The following is the latest UK Summary which make sombre reading if you are either Ukrainian or a Russian squaddie.

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See first section
Putin: Russkiy Mir (Russian Nation + Russian World)
Hitler: Lebensraum im Osten
 

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