"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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*NSFW* - graphic images.

Video taken this last October of the aftermath of Ukrainian artillery catching a Russian convoy on a road near Donetsk.

It appears that after all this time, the Russians have not yet learned that columns are a sure-fire way to get annihilated.

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That scene reminds me of what Patton wrote in his book "War As I Knew It". I think he was describing the destruction of a German column attempting a breakout from, I think, the Kolmar Pocket. He wrote that he could walk a hundred yards down the road, never stepping on the ground, just stepping from one dead body to another.
 
GrauGeist said:
Imagine if NATO did not support Ukraine in 2022 just like it failed to do in 2014...
Click to expand...
To be fair, Ukraine has been independent since 1991 and had more than twenty years before 2014 to get its house and defences in order. And in 2014 the Ukrainians let themselves down, either fleeing from or collaborating with the Russians. Let's be clear, it's not NATO's fault that Russia was able to take Crimea with hardly a shot, but it's seemingly NATO's responsibility to now indefinitely bankroll and provide for Ukraine's second round.
 
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DerAdlerIstGelandet said:
Unfortunately we either bankroll them or we do the fighting for them. I think everyone agrees that is not the greatest idea.
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I agree, we're stuck paying Ukraine's ticket as the best option. If we're going to carry on, I wish we'd hurry up and give Ukraine the air superiority and breaching tools they need to go through the Russian forces, minefields and defensive works. If Ukraine has not reached Armyansk by the end of 2024, I think they're kippered. By 2025 Russia will have Crimea fortified and inpregnable.

I wonder if Ukraine is working on a large scale MCLC (Mine-clearing line charge).



Or something fantastical like this...

Mine Kafon Drone - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org
 
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Looks like more artillery ammunition is being delivered/scrounged, but Ukraine becoming increasingly shell starved. Recent estimates are that Ukraine is firing off anwhere from 90,000 to 240,000 artillery and mortar shells per month, but is getting only about 75% of the ammunition it needs.

The US is reportedly buying 50,000 105 mm, 20,000 155mm and 5,000 203mm stocks from Greece. The UK is looking at sending 'tens of thousands' of additional 105mm before the end of the year. There's even been news of Ukraine buying old 155 mm DPICMs from Turkey and Pakistan

Western production is starting to spin up though - US output of 155mm is variously reported to be at 28,000 or 30,000 per month, up from 12,000 per month before the war. The good news it that the US is actually running ahead of schedule in terms of ramp up. The plan was to go to 24,000 per month by the end of the year and 80,000 to 100,000 per month by the end of 2025. However, some shells are being diverted to Israel (reportedly 15,000).

EU production of 155mm looks like its gone from somewhere around 18,000-19,000 per month pre-war to 35,000 to 37,000 per month as of October. Production might be above 40,000 per month by the end of the year.

Rhinemetall alone estimates it could have produced 400,000 155nn shells this year, and 600,000 next year. However, despite contract negotiations starting in March, the EU only got its 'fast track' deals finalised in early October, delaying things by months.

There are seven facilities producing 155mm shells in Europe, with another facility under construction (in Hungary). There are also a couple former Soviet bloc countries (Poland, Czechia) that are making 122mm and 152mm.

Based on reported production increases, the EU will be producing somewhere around 1.5 to 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025. That's a hughe increase (nearly ninefold), but it's still only roughly what Ukraine is consuming now in terms of heavy shells.
 
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