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Yes unfortunately. If no other reason than this is happening in Europe. I appreciate that that is unfair but it is the reality. I would also argue that the failure of Afghanistan and the debacle of the end was exactly because the political will was not there to support. If Ukraine is abandoned now we will see something even worse.More 'public' than leaving Afghanistan with 1000's of Americans (and allies) in-country - with no plan to protect them?
I agree but again it is what it is - as I posted above, this is very much a Black Swan event. We also don't have a time machine to go back to right the wrongs of 2014.I AM livid that the NATO/EU/US leadership let this happen in the first place.
This could have been avoided if Putin didn't invade. It can also be ended if Putin withdraws. Giving Putin 1 cm of Ukrainian land will only make the deaths for nothing...and will embolden him and other wannabes to do similar.I am sad that more than a million'teen age kids' and men on both sides will not have a good reason to be dead... not to mention children, old folks and women are caught up in the conflagration.
The Ukraine War is very much a "Black Swan" event - i.e. high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable.
Hence the "in retrospect appears to have been inevitable" bit. I would also add that part of the Black Swan part here was that even those who could see what was happening were certain that Russia would prevail and quickly. They were not ready for the Zelensky 'I need ammunition, not a ride' moment and everything else that went with it nor were they ready for the reality of Russia's performance.I think with the six months' lead-up in 2021, it was indeed somewhat foreseeable. We had satellite imagery showing Russian forces moving into place.
Hence the "in retrospect appears to have been inevitable" bit. I would also add that part of the Black Swan part here was that even those who could see what was happening were certain that Russia would prevail and quickly. They were not ready for the Zelensky 'I need ammunition, not a ride' moment and everything else that went with it nor were they ready for the reality of Russia's performance.
I could agree but the did the nagging 'no Western resistance' for Crimea and Georgia excursions make Ukraine 'less risky' in Putin's calculations?The Ukraine War is very much a "Black Swan" event - i.e. high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable.
It probably did...but the world has changed.I could agree but the did the nagging 'no Western resistance' for Crimea and Georgia excursions make Ukraine 'less risky' in Putin's calculations?
Wasn't expecting that.
I would ask - With a two to three year gap in inventory over next couple of years? Our preparedness today is far short of 2020, and the threat from China is far greater. We were energy independent then, today we are back to 2001 threshold of production vs requirements of US capacity to suport itself.
I thought he was holding out for 30 Bn Euros. I'd still take it as a win.at the cost of a 10 Bn Euro bribe for Orban
Don't let truth get in the way of a good complaint!Huh? And double huh? Where are you getting that?
The US wasn't energy independent in 2020, but it was a net energy exporter. The US still relied heavily on oil and natural gas imports in 2020 to meet its liquid fuels need. The USA of 2023 is a little less dependent on foreign imports and this trend will continue. That's thanks to broadly flat domestic consumption over the past two decades, and massively increasing domestic production.
At the moment, the US is:
A) Producing more energy than it ever has. Energy production has gone from ~70 quadrillion BTUs in 2005 to ~103 quadrillion BTUs in 2022 (and will grow again this year). Meanwhile consumption has almost static since 2005, at roughly 100 to 103 quadrillion BTUs.
B) Importing less energy overall than at any point since the mid 1990s and proportionally less (share of energy mix) than at any point since WW2.
C) Enjoying its largest ever energy production surplus and exporting more energy than it ever has (a record 4.3 quadrillion BTUs exported in the year to July 2023, up nearly 40% on 2022 and more than double that of 2021). If net exports are positive in December 2023, it will be the first time since the 1950s that the US has been a net energy exporter for every single month of a calendar year.
Consumption:
2001 US energy consumption: 95.95 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy consumption: 92.826 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy consumption: 100.325 quadrillion BTUs (2020 to 2022 change: 7.499 quadrillion BTUs (+8.1%))
Production:
2001 US energy production: 71.667 quadrillion BTUs
2020 US energy production: 95.671 quadrillion BTUs
2022 US energy production: 102.923 quadrillion BTUs (Change: 7.252 quadrillion BTUs (+7.6%))
Since 2001, the US has gone from a 24.3 quadrillion BTU production deficit to a 2.6 quadrillion BTU surplus.
The surplus did drop marginally between 2020 and 222 (by 0.2 quadrillion BTUs). But, that's only because domestic consumption fell HUGELY in 2020, because most of the US was locked down in 2020 thanks to COVID!. Refinery capacity dropped from about 90% to about 70% (and is now back above 90%).
US liquid fuels (all types) refinery capacity:
Jan 1st, 2001: 34,491 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 49,317 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 47,479 Thousand barrels per stream day
Forecast Jan 1st 2024 capacity: 48,900 Thousand barrels per stream day
US petroleum refinery capacity:
Jan 1st, 2001: 14,940 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st 2020: 16,860 Thousand barrels per stream day
Jan 1st, 2023: 15,624 Thousand barrels per stream day
Sep 1st, 2023: 16,713 Thousand barrels per stream day
All data sourced from the US Energy Information Administration:
FOTW #1310, October 2, 2023: The United States Has Been a Positive Net Exporter of Primary Energy Since 2019
Exports of primary energy have increased every year since 2002, starting at 3.6 quadrillion Btu (quads) and rising to 27.5 quads in 2022.www.energy.gov https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/archive/00352311.pdf (Check page 2)U.S. energy facts - imports and exports - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. energy imports and exports since 1950.www.eia.gov
Sorry, but I have to look at these charts weekly for work and this sort of casual misinformation drives me crazy.
I would go further and assert that the attacks on Israel are at the request of Putin via Iran so as to distract the west...which it has help do.An op-ed I found at The Hill. I agree with its basic precepts.
Ukraine and Israel are in the same fight
If you take seriously the art of seeing the world as “a single city” — a view that the ancient Greeks called “geopolitics” — the situation is clear.thehill.com