"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

[GTX]

Gargantuan challenges face Ukraine's new military chief

The success of Ukraine's new military commander-in-chief depends on a good relationship with his president, a supportive Ukrainian parliament, military assistance from the West and political objectives aligning with military realities. It is a daunting predicament, writes Mick Ryan.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

Grrrrrr…..!!!!!

Leaked photo reveals gutted Taipan helicopters destined for the dirt

A leaked photo of dismantled Taipan helicopters slated for burial has reignited frustrations over a decision not to send the aircraft to Ukraine, but one army association says doing so would have been gifting the nation a "poisoned chalice".

www.abc.net.au

 

[SaparotRob]

Grrrrrr…..!!!!!

Leaked photo reveals gutted Taipan helicopters destined for the dirt

A leaked photo of dismantled Taipan helicopters slated for burial has reignited frustrations over a decision not to send the aircraft to Ukraine, but one army association says doing so would have been gifting the nation a "poisoned chalice".

www.abc.net.au

I did not apply my usual stringent research standards but it seems perhaps they are better off six feet under.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'm becoming increasingly worried that on 21 Jan 2025, Putin invades Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the response from the US is not that we others in NATO hoped for or at one time expected. It's like we're back to the interwar League of Nations with an increasingly isolationist US.

 

[Glider]

I'm becoming increasingly worried that on 21 Jan 2025, Putin invades Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the response from the US is not that us others in NATO hoped for or at one time expected. It's like we're back to the interwar League of Nations with an increasingly isolationist US.

I have to say that it's a scary thought, unlikely but getting more possible by the day.

 

[Greg Boeser]

I have to say that it's a scary thought, unlikely but getting more possible by the day.

We have troops there now, but, then we had troops in Ukraine before they were withdrawn during Putin's sabre rattling prior to the invasion. One phrase that has gathered some cache in political circles over the past couple decades is "What's our exit strategy?" Which is loosely translated: When do we cut and run?
Nothing inspires soldiers more than talking heads planning the retreat before the battle has even been joined.

 

[GrauGeist]

I'm fairly certain that Europe is quite capable of confronting Russia without the U.S. - considering how Ukraine neutered Russia's initial assault, attacking any NATO country means Russia has to fight them all and that will not end well for Putin.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'm fairly certain that Europe is quite capable of confronting Russia without the U.S. - considering how Ukraine neutered Russia's initial assault, attacking any NATO country means Russia has to fight them all and that will not end well for Putin.

I'm not. By Jan 2025 Poland will have more tanks and a more advanced air force than Putin, but the three Baltic Republics have little to stop Russia, nor does Bulgaria or Romania. And heck, Hungary may well simply avert their eyes as Russia marches through on their way to Romania. And if we believe NATO is still safe even with a disinterested and disengaging US, what about the Moldovans and Georgians? They're likely screwed if Putin feels he can hold the Ukrainians behind the Suvorkin Line while a neutered or uncertain NATO looks away as Putin storms through his non-allied neighbours in the name of protecting ethnic Russians.

 

[WARSPITER]

The other factor in this is Russia marches through - with what ?

 

[GrauGeist]

If Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are attacked, then Russia will be fighting Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain and the UK - I am sure Sweden would jump in, as they are in the process of joining.

This is leaving out the U.S. (and Canada), since the subject was that Europe could engage Russia on their own if need be.

This also exludes Turkey and Hungary for obvious reasons.

So now, in light of the above list, I again mention that Ukraine, on it's own, has stopped the mighty Russian juggernaut in it's tracks.
Invading any one (or all) of the Baltic states will bring NATO into the fray in full force - and there is no way in hell that Russia could survive such a folly.

 

[WARSPITER]

Just on a technical point as to the NATO powers, would such a stupid move by Russia then allow
NATO to gain permission from Ukraine to enter their territory to 'ensure the safety of the southern flank' ?
Some such thing anyway.

 

[swampyankee]

Ukraine stopped Russia with a lot of externally supplied hardware. One hopes that the president who takes office on 21 Jan 2025 isn't the one who thinks that solemn treaty obligations can be discarded like used toilet paper, that is same person is also noted to be one who has shown a perfect willingness to break financial and business contracts and defraud investors and lenders.

 

[GrauGeist]

Just on a technical point as to the NATO powers, would such a stupid move by Russia then allow
NATO to gain permission from Ukraine to enter their territory to 'ensure the safety of the southern flank' ?
Some such thing anyway.

Going out on a limb here, but if Russia drags NATO into the mix, I'm pretty sure that driving Russia back to their borders would most likely include any Russian elements in Ukraine.

 

[Snautzer01]

 

[MiTasol]

The other factor in this is Russia marches through - with what ?

All the western talking heads have been saying for the last 12 months that Putin and/or Russia's downfall is only days away and yet the Russians are advancing in Ukraine - mainly because the west has been too little too late in support.

I hope the Europeans have lots of spares for all their US manufactured equipment because there is a very strong probability that the US will embargo all aid to NATO starting Jan 21 2025.

If they have no spares and consumables then it is possible there will be nothing to stop Putin doing whatever he wants.

Example - how many 155mm shells are available IN EUROPE for NATO?

 

[Denniss]

Russian drone ops trained by iran/lebanese hezbollah fighters in Syria according to Ukrainian intelligence. There were rumors that russinas had their finger in the attack on Israel.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria. The GUR stated that LH and I

www.understandingwar.org

 

[ThomasP]

re

Just on a technical point as to the NATO powers, would such a stupid move by Russia then allow
NATO to gain permission from Ukraine to enter their territory to 'ensure the safety of the southern flank' ?
Some such thing anyway.

Short answer is Yes.

Not quite so short answer is yes, as long as it does not undermine/contradict the basic tenets of the NATO charter.


re

This is leaving out the U.S. (and Canada), since the subject was that Europe could engage Russia on their own if need be.

This also exludes Turkey and Hungary for obvious reasons.

Turkey does not like Russia - do not forget that Turkey joined NATO (and has remained a member) largely because of the fear of Russian aggression in the Black Sea in general, and re the Bosphorus in particular. They are trying to sit on the fence a bit for political purposes (justified or otherwise) and due to their main supplier for oil and natural gas being Russia.

Also, for those who might not be aware, Turkey effectively has the 2nd or 3rd most powerful military of the European NATO members. They could clean the Russians out of the Black Sea and Crimea pretty much by themselves - if they wanted/had to. Short of using nukes there is little Russia could do to stop Turkey in their area of responsibility - although they could be seriously hurt if the Russian forces were allowed to concentrate on the Crimea/Black Sea front.

Obviously there is no guarantee, but I do not think there is much reason to worry about Turkey's allegiance.

"List of active Turkish Air Force aircraft - Wikipedia"
"Turkish Naval Forces - Wikipedia"
"List of equipment of the Turkish Land Forces - Wikipedia"


PS: Also, Turkey is 'steadily' becoming a country of 'haves', ie their economy is growing and they are merging more and more with the world of higher standards of living. They do not wish to lose that.

"Economy of Turkey - Wikipedia."

 

[Frog]

re


Short answer is Yes.

Not quite so short answer is yes, as long as it does not undermine/contradict the basic tenets of the NATO charter.


re


Turkey does not like Russia - do not forget that Turkey joined NATO (and has remained a member) largely because of the fear of Russian aggression in the Black Sea in general, and re the Bosphorus in particular. They are trying to sit on the fence a bit for political purposes (justified or otherwise) and due to their main supplier for oil and natural gas being Russia.

Also, for those who might not be aware, Turkey effectively has the 2nd or 3rd most powerful military of the European NATO members. They could clean the Russians out of the Black Sea and Crimea pretty much by themselves - if they wanted/had to. Short of using nukes there is little Russia could do to stop Turkey in their area of responsibility - although they could be seriously hurt if the Russian forces were allowed to concentrate on the Crimea/Black Sea front.

Obviously there is no guarantee, but I do not think there is much reason to worry about Turkey's allegiance.

"List of active Turkish Air Force aircraft - Wikipedia"
"Turkish Naval Forces - Wikipedia"
"List of equipment of the Turkish Land Forces - Wikipedia"


PS: Also, Turkey is 'steadily' becoming a country of 'haves', ie their economy is growing and they are merging more and more with the world of higher standards of living. They do not wish to lose that.

"Economy of Turkey - Wikipedia."

Turkey does not like Russia

That did not prevent them to acquire S-400 missiles.

 

[GTX]

I'm fairly certain that Europe is quite capable of confronting Russia without the U.S. - considering how Ukraine neutered Russia's initial assault, attacking any NATO country means Russia has to fight them all and that will not end well for Putin.

Ukraine was only able to with a lot of external support…something that remains the case today.

I find it ironic that the only time NATO's Article 5 (the one about an attack on one is an attack on all) has been invoked in the entire history of the Alliance: was in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terror attacks on the United States! Therefore to have some in the USA now say/imply that they won't come to aid of the other NATO members is a bit pathetic.

While I have confidence in the abilities of the non-US members, it still doesn't look good when your biggest/strongest player implies they don't want to play…or worse, that they will actively encourage the opposition. It will be remembered if it comes to fruition…

 

[GTX]

Turkey does not like Russia

That did not prevent them to acquire S-400 missiles.

Don't confuse one man (Erdoğan) with the entire country