"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

Admiral Beez · Mar 22, 2022

Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they're all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.

NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can't do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can't accidentally block the Bosporus.

Denniss · Mar 22, 2022

Bosporos is blocked by Turkey for Russian warships which weren't based in Black Sea when their war began.

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they're all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.

NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can't do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can't accidentally block the Bosporus.

Actually, Turkey has said it will block access to the Black See for any military vessels not based there. If the Far East fleet does head to the Black Sea, we could be in for some bigger problems very quickly.

Here's an article from 2 March on the topic:

How Turkey Blocking Russia From The Black Sea Harms Neutral States

Turkey has implemented an international law to block Russian warships from entering the Black Sea. But it's blocking neutral warships too—and its actions could ignite tensions in the region.

www.forbes.com

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

This is absolutely heartbreaking:

In Mariupol, children bear the brunt of Vladimir Putin's war

At a children's hospital near the besieged city, the true impact of Russia's tactics are on display.

www.bbc.com

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

The fighters from Belarus helping defend Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60830013

Admiral Beez · Mar 22, 2022

Denniss said:
Bosporos is blocked by Turkey for Russian warships which weren't based in Black Sea when their war began.

How does Turkey stop them? Clearly international law, like the Montrose Convention is meaningless to Putin.

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
How does Turkey stop them? Clearly international law, like the Montrose Convention is meaningless to Putin.

Militarily, which is why any attempt to bring Russian warships into the Black Sea is so dangerous. The risk of one or both sides opening fire and causing casualties is considerable.

However, Turkey is operating entirely within the remit of the Montreux Convention. There is a war happening and Turkey can bar access to belligerents' military vessels except those normally based in the Black Sea.

SaparotRob · Mar 22, 2022

Snautzer01 said:
Ah... a fellow tribesmen, devoted to the church of blues , where the dodge of Monaco is hailed as the the only saint and where we all hate Illinois Nazis.

Dude!

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Mar 22, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Warships IFR, one of only two print magazines I still subscribe to has reported that Russian amphibious assault ships have left the Pacific, sailed past Japan. Others are transferring from the Baltic to the Mediterranean. At least one land attack missile equipped SSN is also in the Med. The belief is that they're all heading for the Black Sea to support a coastal landing against Ukraine.

NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can't do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can't accidentally block the Bosporus.

That will be interesting, because they have to travel through the Bosphorus which is controlled by Turkey. Turkey per treaty has the right to close it, which they have done.

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

Snautzer01 said:
Ah... a fellow tribesmen, devoted to the church of blues , where the dodge of Monaco is hailed as the the only saint and where we all hate Illinois Nazis.

Back in 1992 I got to see Cab Calloway live in Verona, Italy (he performed in a stepped, semi-circular Roman amphitheatre). He was well into his 80s at that time...but he was still absolutely BRILLIANT. His rendering of "Minnie the Moocher" remains a priceless memory for me.

wlewisiii · Mar 22, 2022

There's been rumors that Ukraine has given China pause about trying to take over Taiwan. The biggest reason Ukraine has been successful has been their willingness to fight. The second is the supplies pouring in from western countries. But I suspect that one of the reasons that China might be wary is that Ukraine's military discipline has been a result of the military training they received from the US since 2014. We might be a bit bloated militarily, but we still know how to fight.

The other critical issue we're seeing is the corruption we've seen in Russian military spending, how much of it got siphoned off to generals and oligarchs, producing shoddy equipment. That is still one big difference between Russia and us. Our spending might be more than it should be, but at the end of the day, you still get a proper bolt out of our military manufacturing, and not a piece of wood carved into a bolt and painted silver. There is probably a desire in Beijing right now to check how their own production _really_ is.

Finally, the last major combat the Chinese faced was against Vietnam in 1979 and the veterans of the PAV & ARVN combined to kick their asses to the point where the PLA was forced to declare "victory" and leave. The Army probably has no veterans that remember that embarrassment, but the leadership does. The could see that happening again all too easily especially when looking at the Russian experience in Ukraine.

Thumpalumpacus · Mar 22, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
Beyond killing, dehousing and frightening civilians have those missiles achieved any reductions in Ukrainian armed resistance?

I'd imagine so, given that so much of the fighting is urban and that means that military and civilian casualties are going to be very difficult to disentangle.

wlewisiii · Mar 22, 2022

There were reports of the Russian Navy using Anti-Ship missiles as Anti-ground missiles. Looks like ATGMs make good Anti-Ship missiles if the boat is too close to the shore...

Thumpalumpacus · Mar 22, 2022

buffnut453 said:
Militarily, which is why any attempt to bring Russian warships into the Black Sea is so dangerous. The risk of one or both sides opening fire and causing casualties is considerable.

However, Turkey is operating entirely within the remit of the Montreux Convention. There is a war happening and Turkey can bar access to belligerents' military vessels except those normally based in the Black Sea.

And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Mar 22, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.

Agreed, this is a super dangerous situation. If they try and run the straight and fire upon Turkish forces, that carrier battle group is justified in engaging. I don't think those Russian ships will last long, but it would potentially be the opening shots in a much larger conflict.

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

Thumpalumpacus said:
And because Turkey is acting IAW international law and is a NATO member, the carrier battle group in the eastern Med would be easily justified ... which is, as you say, the reason why the Russians trying to bring that amphib group through is so dangerous.

While it's Turkey's call whether to implement the Montreux Convention, it won't be operating alone. I'd be astounded if the US 6th Fleet plus assets from other NATO navies won't be in the area to help out in case there's an incident.

I do fear, though, that if Russia opens fire on a Turkish vessel--or, perish the thought, sinks a Turkish vessel--that it will bring NATO into the conflict.

SaparotRob · Mar 22, 2022

I've been trying to link this. Look up "this is too much Russian soldier falls off tank" on YouTube.

buffnut453 · Mar 22, 2022

SaparotRob said:
I've been trying to link this. Look up "this is too much Russian soldier falls off tank" on YouTube.

You mean this one?

Real Keystone Cops stuff.

GrauGeist · Mar 22, 2022

Between the Dardenells and the Bosphorus, is the Sea of Marmara - a natural killing zone.
If Turkey is engaged by Russian surface elements, they will be engaged by Turkish land, sea and air assets.

Since Turkey is tasked with control of the Black Sea access, it may not trigger a NATO response. Much like when Russian and Turkish troops clashed in Syria.

But it would be absolutely stupid for Russia to try. As I just mentioned, that waterway is well defended and is a natural killing zone.

Admiral Beez · Mar 22, 2022

wlewisiii said:
I suspect that one of the reasons that China might be wary is that Ukraine's military discipline has been a result of the military training they received from the US since 2014.

I think the utter collapse of the US-trained Afghan Army as soon as the Taliban said boo was a shock to the Chinese and seen as an incentive to Putin. The Ukrainian example is the polar opposite.

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