"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

[buffnut453]

Are Ukraine's forces that organized to run traditional field movements? I was thinking they were more ambush and partisan than an organized army with a formal command structure from Field Marshall to Generals to Colonels to Captain and so on. Is there an Ukranian Montgomery, Patton or Manstein pulling the strings?

Ukraine had an established armed forces that were almost certainly trained in traditional combat operations. Some of those regular forces have been engaged in Donbas and so have a fair amount of combat experience, albeit more trench warfare than manoeuvre warfare.

Then there are the various militia groups, volunteers, new recruits etc who won't be skilled in traditional combat operations. However, in small groups they're probably highly effective in maintaining an insurgency. Anybody who's hunted game knows how to move quietly, remain in a hide for long periods of time, and then hit the target. I know it's not as simple as that...but there's a lot of innate skills that exist outside the military but which can be applied.

 

[vikingBerserker]

I would imagine Stalin 2.0 will greet these soldiers as well as Stalin 1.0 did. They'd be better off just becoming Ukranian.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Where's the Russian Beriev A-50 (AEW&C)?

How Ukraine's Outgunned Air Force Is Fighting Back Against Russian Jets

Here's the whole article.

LVIV, Ukraine — Each night, Ukrainian pilots like Andriy loiter in an undisclosed aircraft hangar, waiting, waiting, until the tension is broken with a shouted, one-word command: "Air!"

Andriy hustles into his Su-27 supersonic jet and hastily taxis toward the runway, getting airborne as quickly as possible. He takes off so fast that he doesn't yet know his mission for the night, though the big picture is always the same — to bring the fight to a Russian Air Force that is vastly superior in numbers but has so far failed to win control of the skies above Ukraine.

"I don't do any checks," said Andriy, a Ukrainian Air Force pilot who as a condition of granting an interview was not permitted to give his surname or rank. "I just take off."
Nearly a month into the fighting, one of the biggest surprises of the war in Ukraine is Russia's failure to defeat the Ukrainian Air Force. Military analysts had expected Russian forces to quickly destroy or paralyze Ukraine's air defenses and military aircraft, yet neither have happened. Instead, Top Gun-style aerial dogfights, rare in modern warfare, are now raging above the country.
"Every time when I fly, it's for a real fight," said Andriy, who is 25 and has flown 10 missions in the war. "In every fight with Russian jets, there is no equality. They always have five times more" planes in the air.
The success of Ukrainian pilots has helped protect Ukrainian soldiers on the ground and prevented wider bombing in cities, since pilots have intercepted some Russian cruise missiles. Ukrainian officials also say the country's military has shot down 97 fixed-wing Russian aircraft. That number could not be verified but the crumpled remnants of Russian fighter jets have crashed into rivers, fields and houses.
Image

Andriy, a Ukrainian Air Force pilot."Every time when I fly, it's for a real fight," he said.Credit...Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times
The Ukrainian Air Force is operating in near total secrecy. Its fighter jets can fly from air strips in western Ukraine, airports that have been bombed yet retain enough runway for takeoffs or landings — or even from highways, analysts say. They are vastly outnumbered: Russia is believed to fly some 200 sorties per day while Ukraine flies five to 10.
Ukrainian pilots do have one advantage. In most of the country, Russian planes fly over territory controlled by the Ukrainian military, which can move anti-aircraft missiles to harass — and shoot down — planes.
"Ukraine has been effective in the sky because we operate on our own land," Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said. "The enemy flying into our airspace is flying into the zone of our air defense systems." He described the strategy as luring Russian planes into air defense traps.
Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and the principal attack planner for the Desert Storm air campaign in Iraq, said the impressive performance of the Ukrainian pilots had helped counter their disadvantages in numbers. He said Ukraine now has roughly 55 operational fighter jets, a number that is dwindling from shoot-downs and mechanical failures, as Ukrainian pilots are "stressing them to max performance."
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has appealed repeatedly to Western governments to replenish the Ukrainian Air Force and has asked NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over the country, a step Western leaders have so far refused to take. Slovakia and Poland have considered sending MiG-29 fighter jets, which Ukrainian pilots could fly with minimal additional training, but as yet no transfers have been made.
"Russian troops have already fired nearly 1,000 missiles at Ukraine, countless bombs," Mr. Zelensky said in a video address to Congress on March 16, appealing for more planes. "And you know that they exist, and you have them, but they are on earth, not in Ukraine — in the Ukrainian sky."
Mr. Deptula said transferring these jets into Ukraine is critical. "Without resupply," he said, "they will run out of airplanes before they run out of pilots."
Pilotless drones are also a tool in the Ukrainian military's arsenal, but not in the battle for control of the airspace. Ukraine flies a Turkish-made armed drone, the Bayraktar TB-2, a plodding, propeller aircraft that is lethally effective in destroying tanks or artillery pieces on the ground but cannot hit targets in the air. If Ukraine's air defenses fail, Russian jets could easily pick them off.
Image

The Bayraktar TB2 drone was on display during a rehearsal for a military parade for Ukraine's Independence Day last year in Kyiv.Credit...Efrem Lukatsky/Associated Press
As in other aspects of Ukraine's war effort, volunteers play a role in the air battles. A volunteer network watches and listens for Russian jets, calling in coordinates and estimated speed and altitude. Other private Ukrainian pilots have removed up-to-date civilian navigation equipment from their planes and handed it over to the air force, in case it can be helpful.
Air-to-air combat has been rare in modern war, with only isolated examples in recent decades. U.S. pilots, for example, have not flown extensive aerial dogfights since the first Iraq War in 1991. Since then, U.S. fighter jets have engaged in air-to-air combat on just a few occasions, shooting down 10 planes in the Balkan wars and one plane in Syria, according to Mr. Deptula.
In the night sky, Andriy said he relies on instruments to discern the positions of enemy planes, which he says are always present. He has shot down Russian jets but was not permitted to say how many, or of which type. He said his targeting system can fire at planes a few dozen miles away.
"I mostly have tasks of hitting airborne targets, of intercepting enemy jets," he said. "I wait for the missile to lock on my target. After that I press fire."
When he shoots down a Russian jet, he said, "I am happy that this plane will no longer bomb my peaceful towns. And as we see in practice, that is exactly what Russian jets do."
Most of the aerial combat in Ukraine has been nocturnal, as Russian aircraft attack in the dark when they are less vulnerable to air defenses. In the dogfights over Ukraine, Andriy said, the Russians have been flying an array of modern Sukhoi jets, such as the Su-30, Su-34 and Su-35.
Image

A satellite image of destroyed Russian helicopters on the tarmac at an airfield in Kherson, Ukraine, last week.Credit...Maxar Technologies, via Associated Press
"I had situations when I was approaching a Russian plane to a close enough distance to target and fire," he said. "I could already detect it but was waiting for my missile to lock on while at the same time from the ground they tell me that a missile was fired at me already."
He said he maneuvered his jet through a series of extreme banks, dives and climbs in order to exhaust the fuel supplies of the missiles coming after him. "The time I have to save myself depends on how far away the missile was fired at me and what kind of missile," he said.
Still, he said in an interview on a clear, sunny day, "I can still feel a huge rush of adrenaline in my body because every flight is a fight."
Andriy graduated from the Kharkiv Air Force School after deciding to become a pilot as a teenager. "Neither me nor my friends ever thought we would have to face a real war," he said. "But that's not how it turned out."
Andriy has moved his wife to a safer part of Ukraine, but she has not left the country, he said. She spends her days weaving homemade camouflage nets for the Ukrainian army. He never tells family members when he is going on duty, he said, calling only after returning from a night flight.
"I only have to use my skills to win," said Andriy. "My skills are better than the Russians. But on the other hand, many of my friends, and even those more experience than me, are already dead."
Image

 

[SaparotRob]

This is looking too similar to the winter war but with more western help.

The video is better.

 

[SaparotRob]

Russia has lost 10% of its combat forces per Pentagon…

Russian military has lost more than 10% of combat force sent to Ukraine; humanitarian convoy seized, Zelenskyy says: March 22 recap

Ukrainian resistance is quick and nimble – and seeking to retake ground from the Russians, a Pentagon official said. Latest Tuesday's recap.

www.yahoo.com

Them I believe.

 

[Glider]

NATO does have a CBG in the Eastern Med, but they can't do anything of course. Too bad the Turks can't accidentally block the Bosporus.

With some luck we can find a large container vessel to block things up for a while

 

[Glider]

Love the BTR-80 up on blocks like the wheels got stolen ...

Is the new SOP to stop the farmers towing it away

 

[buffnut453]

First-hand account of the bombing of the theatre in Mariupol:

A bomb hit this theatre hiding hundreds - here's how one woman survived

The BBC speaks to survivors of the Mariupol theatre attack, who describe for the first time what happened.

www.bbc.com

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

With some luck we can find a large container vessel to block things up for a while

Call Evergreen. They know go to choke a Channel.

 

[buffnut453]

Call Evergreen. They know go to choke a Channel.

Brilliant. Absolutely BRILLIANT. Almost made me snort my soda.

Well played, sir. WELL PLAYED!!!!

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Brilliant. Absolutely BRILLIANT. Almost made me snort my soda.

Well played, sir. WELL PLAYED!!!!

Glad that you didn't choke buffnut453 !

 

[Dimlee]

Another Chechen-Russian war.
Fighters of Sheikh Mansur battalion (anti-Moscow Chechens) defending the Kyiv region.

 

[JDCAVE]

From the NYT:

"As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin's Leadership…

"Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war."

it's a good article, worth searching for.

Jim

 

[vikingBerserker]

Nice find Jim, I'll post the link

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership (Published 2022)

Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Promote the Russian officer in charge to Field Marshal. "Not one inch!"

It's probably very true that the GOC wouldn't want to return to Russia, considering how Putin has treated other failures in his higher echelons of gov't.

ETA: vikingBerserker got there first, so credit where credit is due.

 

[Zipper730]

I think it's a more realistic outlook than any "pre-2014 borders, go-for-broke" hard line stance on Ukranian sovereignty. It acknowledges the self-determination wishes of the Russian minority and gets Putard's spawn out of the rest of Ukraine, while giving him a face-saving (if personally frustrating) line of retreat, and the rest of us a reprieve from incineration.

Russian minority -- in the Ukraine?

 

[JDCAVE]

Nice find Jim, I'll post the link

As Russia Stalls in Ukraine, Dissent Brews Over Putin’s Leadership (Published 2022)

Military losses have mounted, progress has slowed, and a blame game has begun among some Russian supporters of the war.

www.nytimes.com

Thanks. I have a subscription, so the app makes that difficult for the technically challenged (Me)…

I especially liked "In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be "pointless and extremely dangerous." It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten "the existence of Russia itself as a state."

Kinda like what's happening?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Thanks. I have a subscription, so the app makes that difficult for the technically challenged (Me)…

I especially liked "In January, the head of a group of serving and retired Russian military officers declared that invading Ukraine would be "pointless and extremely dangerous." It would kill thousands, he said, make Russians and Ukrainians enemies for life, risk a war with NATO and threaten "the existence of Russia itself as a state."

Kinda like what's happening?

I don't think Russia's existence as a state is in the balance right now, but the other consequences predicted seem to be playing out.

Of course, a defeat that brings about Putin's downfall and potentially instigates a Russian civil war could see Russia's existence called into question, but I think that is at best a remote possibility.

This is certainly ruining their prestige and will likely render them unable to influence world events for a few decades to come, aside from their nukes, of course. Whether they win or lose, they've squandered their diplomatic trust, and any potential allies are looking at this fiasco and asking themselves "what do we do now?"

 

[JDCAVE]

Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I'm going to go out on a limb and I hope I'm wrong:

I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It's not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.

The question is, how will NATO react?

I'm worried.

Jim

 

[Jamoliva]

Interesting subject:
The fate of Russia's soldiers

BBC World Service - Assignment, The fate of Russia’s soldiers

Tim Whewell follows the story of a Russian prisoner of war in Ukraine

www.bbc.co.uk