"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

I suspect any use of chemical weapons or a solitary, low-yield nuke will result in the gloves being thrown off, and NATO will go in with all guns blazing.

I can see NATO going into Ukraine but not into Russia proper. The question is, what does Russia do in response? Given their shoddy performance, I don't see Russia launching ground attacks into the Baltic Reps or Poland, but missile strikes, yes. Its SSNs around the globe may begin attacking western warships and civilian ships - NATO's SSNs and potent SSKs won't sit back and watch. Once the submarine war begins it's close to gloves off. I wouldn't want to be on a 40 year old Victoria class SSK if facing a Yasen-class.

 

[XBe02Drvr]

Russian minority -- in the Ukraine?

Those identifying as Russian are definitely in the minority in Ukraine now. That is unless you buy Putard's line that "there are no Ukrainians, just Russians trapped in a hostile state and infected with alien ideas". We old dynasaurs that grew up in the shadow of the cold war tend to think of them all as "Russkis", but times have changed and old habits die hard.

 

[Zipper730]

I wonder if they are gonna see all Russians as potential 5th columnists: That's not good when any nation starts to develop that mindset.

 

[SaparotRob]

Given the low moral within the RF and with the lower echelons (and not so low) not so deluged about the invasion and the future of Rusia if santions continues, it could be possible that somewhere down the command chain the order to fire chems or nukes stops and go nowhere?

I'm hoping that's the case myself. Just how rational/informed/committed to the Czar are the theater commanders?
I can't remember the name of the Soviet naval officer who didn't go along with launching a nuke from a sub during the Cuban Missile crisis. The world's survival might hang on such an officer now.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States

One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...

www.yahoo.com

 

[SaparotRob]

Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States

One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...

www.yahoo.com

It amazes me that Putin thinks the West shouldn't interfere. Is he that out of touch with reality that he's upset we don't believe a word he says? That we shouldn't defend ourselves because that's his view?

 

[Admiral Beez]

Those identifying as Russian are definitely in the minority in Ukraine now.

I know several loyal Ukranians who only speak Russian (and now English) as they're from the Soviet era when the Ukrainian language was repressed. Much like here in Canada where most indigenous people don't speak their historic languages, or how most Irish and Welsh can't speak their mother tongues. The US actress Mila Kunis identifies as Ukrainian but speaks only Russian, for example. I imagine Russian-only speakers will have trouble proving their loyalty to the Ukrainian forces as they retake places. Civilian level IFF has to be a challenge.

In 2018 I was working a trade show in Germany with my Ukrainian-born colleague. When Ukrainian-speakers came to our booth she was effervescently friendly, welcoming, expressing real joy - clearly to Ukrainians everyone in Ukraine is a cousin or blood brother. But when Russians came, her fluent Russian came out like a hostage taking, and the glint of hatred and potential violence in her eyes was palpable. I moved the stapler and promotional pens away. Wholly justifiable IMO. I don't think we sold anything to Russians that day.

 

[Admiral Beez]

It amazes me that Putin thinks the West shouldn't interfere. Is he that out of touch with reality that he's upset we don't believe a word he says? That we shouldn't defend ourselves because that's his view?

My guess is if Putin uses chemical weapons or begins mass executions NATO will march into Ukraine as "peacekeepers", but not an inch into Russian territory. If NATO is smart they'll bring boots, food and media coverage for the now desperate Russians.

Tactical nukes are off the table IMO. Any strike against Kyiv or Mariupol will see the prevailing winds send nuclear fallout straight into Moscow and Volgrad. Much could also be said for any large use of chemical weapons.

 

[buffnut453]

Putin ally warns of nuclear dystopia due to United States

One of President Vladimir Putin's closest allies warned the United States on Wednesday that the world could spiral towards a nuclear dystopia if Washington pressed on with what the Kremlin casts as a long-term plot to destroy Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, who was president from 2008 to 2012 and is...

www.yahoo.com

And there's that dictator-bully/whiny-bitch dual modality at play again.

Putin wants his way and throws tantrums if he doesn't get it. Any objection to Putin getting his way is not simply a disagreement: it means the person/organization objecting is an "enemy of Russia" (because Putin IS Russia). That extends to any message that is not perfectly aligned with whatever Putin spouts.

And this is the REALLY dangerous part of all this...Putin clearly sees himself as the embodiment of Russia. We've already heard from one of his cronies that "there's no world if there's no Russia" (or words to that effect). Thus if Putin IS Russia, then no Putin means there's no Russia...and if there's no Russia, then what's the point of the world? Against that backdrop, the possibility of Putin hitting the big red button increases somewhat in my simple mind.

 

[SaparotRob]

C'mon RF professional soldiers. Purge that mental case!

 

[buffnut453]

Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

My guess is if Putin uses chemical weapons or begins mass executions NATO will march into Ukraine as "peacekeepers", but not an inch into Russian territory. If NATO is smart they'll bring boots, food and media coverage for the now desperate Russians.

The video posted upthread with the four retired SACEURs in a video roundtable brings this up. They seem to all be in agreement that a NFZ is desirable, but that a simple declaration and enforcement would widen the war. One of them suggested that the way to start it would be to fly relief supplies in on a humanitarian airlift a la the Berlin Airlift, with fighters escorting the transports. If the Russian attack a mission, they are seen as actively enforcing their atrocities against outside aid. And if they don't shoot at NATO planes, then supplies can be dropped if targeting Kyiv or southern Ukraine, or landed in the western part and then trucked.

The war will widen soon if it doesn't get negotiated, I believe.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Something more significant, perhaps, is found in the second article on that page:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will take part via video link in this week's special NATO summit to discuss the war.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Rats starting to leave the sinking ship?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Nice. Bloomberg doesn't seem to let me in, so here's another source

Russia's Chubais leaves post as Putin's special representative -source

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Greg Boeser]

Don't know about less well equipped. Seems every man-jack is packing some sort of anti-air or anti-tank missile.

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[buffnut453]

Here's the latest from the whiny bitch:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will begin insisting that payments for Russian gas from "unfriendly countries" are made in roubles.

He's given the Russian central bank a week to find a way of switching these payments away from other currencies.

He says the change will only affect payments and that gas will continue to be supplied in line with existing contracts. It's not clear what the impact of this decision will be.

Putin says the freeze on Russian assets by Western countries has destroyed trust and that his country's economy has been hit hard by sanctions imposed by the West over Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Sanctions include a move to restrict Russian access to international payment systems.

 

[GrauGeist]

I'm hoping that's the case myself. Just how rational/informed/committed to the Czar are the theater commanders?
I can't remember the name of the Soviet naval officer who didn't go along with launching a nuke from a sub during the Cuban Missile crisis. The world's survival might hang on such an officer now.

There were two instances, actually.
The one you're thinking of, was Vasily Arkhipov aboard sub B-59.

Another and very dangerous situation was averted by Stanislav Petrov of the Soviet Air Defense.

 

[at6]

Here's the latest from the whiny bitch:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will begin insisting that payments for Russian gas from "unfriendly countries" are made in roubles.

He's given the Russian central bank a week to find a way of switching these payments away from other currencies.

He says the change will only affect payments and that gas will continue to be supplied in line with existing contracts. It's not clear what the impact of this decision will be.

Putin says the freeze on Russian assets by Western countries has destroyed trust and that his country's economy has been hit hard by sanctions imposed by the West over Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Sanctions include a move to restrict Russian access to international payment systems.

What if customers insist on paying in Bolivars?