"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

[Thumpalumpacus]

Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I'm going to go out on a limb and I hope I'm wrong:

I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It's not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.

The question is, how will NATO react?

I'm worried.

Jim

I think chemical is more likely, but I still think it will end up drawing NATO into the war, meaning that nuclear will be on the table from Putin's perspective. I believe that a chemical attack filling Western TVs and laptops with images of mass-murder will prompt a public demand for a no-fly zone that will probably be irresistible by our politicians.

At that point, of course, the danger of a nuclear exchange is increased. On the other hand NATO's strength may force Putin to negotiate more in good faith (on the assumption that no one wants to rule an irradiated desert). But it's hard to read the cards, for me.

 

[wlewisiii]

The other thing is that getting NATO in might be what "opens a window" as it were. Others may not be willing to let their families be at risk. There would still be a scramble for power but there always has been since the abdication of the tsar so nothing new there.

 

[GrauGeist]

Reading some of the most recent analysis by some of the experts quoted in the media, I'm going to go out on a limb and I hope I'm wrong:

I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It's not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.

The question is, how will NATO react?

I'm worried.

Jim

Here's a good read on the possibility:

Would Russia Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine? - Modern War Institute

Recent nuclear saber rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the West to confront a question that even many national security professionals have been able to ignore for decades: […]

mwi.usma.edu

 

[JDCAVE]

I think chemical is more likely, but I still think it will end up drawing NATO into the war…But it's hard to read the cards, for me.

Me, you, we…everyone is trying to figure this out.

sigh.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Ukrainians go on counteroffensive even as Russia tries to subdue strategic port

Amid warnings that Russia could resort to deadlier — and unconventional — weaponry, analysts say ground offensives could be stalling.

www.yahoo.com

 

[JDCAVE]

Here's a good read on the possibility:

Would Russia Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine? - Modern War Institute

Recent nuclear saber rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the West to confront a question that even many national security professionals have been able to ignore for decades: […]

mwi.usma.edu

He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…

"However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it."

…but how? He offers no policy options.

Jim

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Remember I mentioned in an earlier post how the Russian troops I was in Kosovo with did not have cold weather gear? One wanted to trade me for a pair of US Army winter boots. It shocked me then, and it still shocks me now…

Russian troops are getting frostbite in Ukraine because they don't have the right cold-weather gear, US official says

It's the latest setback Russian forces have faced in their invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops are also said to be losing morale.

www.yahoo.com

 

[wlewisiii]

Quite the thread...

 

[buffnut453]

Remember I mentioned in an earlier post how the Russian troops I was in Kosovo with did not have cold weather gear? One wanted to trade me for a pair of US Army winter boots. It shocked me then, and it still shocks me now…

Russian troops are getting frostbite in Ukraine because they don't have the right cold-weather gear, US official says

It's the latest setback Russian forces have faced in their invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops are also said to be losing morale.

www.yahoo.com

Why? I mean, it's not like they have bad winters in Russia, is it?

 

[buffnut453]

Just when I thought the whole Ukraine/Belarus/Russia thing couldn't get any weirder....

Evan Neumann: US Capitol riot suspect gets asylum in Belarus

Evan Neumann fled to Europe after being charged in connection with the 6 January riot.

www.bbc.com

Please note I offer this solely as a reflection of the craziness of the world right now. It's neither a commentary on the events in Washington DC of 6 Jan 2021, nor is it an invitation to start discussing those events.

If I'm sailing too close to the wind with this post, then would the Powers-That-Be please delete it. I don't want to start a firestorm on this excellent thread that is now in its 144th page!!!

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Why? I mean, it's not like they have bad winters in Russia, is it?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…

"However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it."

…but how? He offers no policy options.

Jim

My feel for his point is that he thinks we should reconsider our all-or-nothing nuclear strategy, and make sure we prepare for that possibility (in terms of equipment and training, as well as doctrine).

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Quite the thread...

Quite the clusterf**k.

 

[GrauGeist]

He outlines in consider detail what Putin might do and closes with…

"However, we need to better understand the possibility of adversary use of such weapons and to discard the faulty assumptions that currently exist to prepare for and protect against that future. Tactical nuclear weapons are a threat to the United States and its alliance relationships. We need to deal with it."

…but how? He offers no policy options.

Jim

Keep in mind that the situation in the Ukraine is being closely watched by the US and NATO via high-res satellites.

This would include keeping an eye on any launch vehicles that are known nuclear capable.

I am not sure of the politics behind such a move, but if Russia were to launch a low-yeild short range nuclear missile, I wouldn't put it past the USN to intercept it in flight from one of the several USN Aegis Cruisers in the area.

There's alot going on behind the scenes that we (and the media) are not privy to.

 

[buffnut453]

I suspect any use of chemical weapons or a solitary, low-yield nuke will result in the gloves being thrown off, and NATO will go in with all guns blazing. Putin either has to go big, and nuke the rest of US and Europe, or go home. I'm not saying he isn't deluded enough to try any of these options but I simply don't see the world standing by and accepting the use of chemical weapons or nukes without a military response. Then again...I've been surprised before.

 

[GrauGeist]

If it does come down to a nuclear slugfest, the question is, will the Russian medium/long range missiles survive the Allied countermeasures AND how good are their countermeasures for the enevitable inbound strike?

The old cold war joke was that the Soviets had so many missiles because they wanted to be sure one or two made it through...

 

[Escuadrilla Azul]

Quite the thread...

Given the low moral within the RF and with the lower echelons (and not so low) not so deluged about the invasion and the future of Rusia if santions continues, it could be possible that somewhere down the command chain the order to fire chems or nukes stops and go nowhere?

 

[Admiral Beez]

I believe Russia will use either chemical or small nuclear weapons sometime over the next week. Either Mariupol or Kyiv. It's not going well for Russia and Putin is going to react.

What would be Putin's motivation for nukes or chemical weapons? The Ukrainians that survive won't surrender, and Putin will have killed Russian troops and made significant parts of Putin's coveted Ukraine uninhabitable. Any such strikes on Mariupol or Kyiv will see the prevailing winds poison the Russian to the east, including Moscow and Volgagrad, which even the best propaganda will have trouble spinning. There would likely be a Brutus in Russia to deal with then.

 

[Snautzer01]

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