Admiral Beez
Major
The Arab Spring didn't go nearly as well as hoped, resulting in more conflict, islamoterrorism and less, not more security and stability in the region. The Persian Spring might end up just as badly for global security.The Ayatolla is 80-something years old and Raisi was due to take his position.
So this ads to the power grab.
Meanwhile, Putin does not have a "top guy" to work deals with plus there is the possibility that the people may take this opportunity to challenge the current government.
*if* this happens, Russia may lose an ally.