Ukrainian Twitter and Telegram sources reporting another uptick in mechanised attacks by Russian forces over the last week or so.
A couple recent attacks were equivalent to at least BTG in strength - 10+ tanks, 30+ IFVs/APCs along with infantry on 'mobility vehicles' (bikes, buggies and similar), with supporting artillery prep and air support. Reminds me of the attacks Russia made in the first 6-8 months of the war and the ones Ukraine tried in mid 2023.
Some of them got spanked pretty hard. One attack by the 79th Air Assault Brigade lost 6 of 11 tanks, at least 7 of 45 infantry vehicles and about a dozen motorbikes.
Lots of speculation about why the switch.
Some are arguing that while a general Russian summer offensive hasn't materialised, some Russian groupings of forces might be seeing an opportunity to use up husbanded equipment and reserves in a 'last summer hurrah'. So, these attacks might be isolated/individual events.
There's another a line of thinking that Russia is pushing now, while it can, to established the most favourable line it can before winter sets in. So, this might be a push within set geographic boundaries.
Another thought is that Russia is attacking now because it expects to be dealing with some supply problems (shortage of barrels for artillery, for instance) and manpower regeneration problems in the next few months which would make attacking later more difficult. That might indicate a wider offensive push, but one that is very limited in scope.
The manpower question is most interesting to me - there are reports that Russia is now sending conscripts to the front with as little as
three days of basic training and the usual 'third brigade' training is now totally absent. It's turning into learn on the job, or die.
Chatham House has a long but pretty sobering analysis of the situation as of early July: