"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (17 Viewers)

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This is all good in Kursk, but what's happening in Donetsk? We can't risk confirmation bias by just reporting on successes, but instead should look at the larger picture. Putin knows that Ukraine doesn't have the stomach to harm Russian civilians in Kursk and that its NATO backers won't allow Russian territory to be annexed postwar. So unless the people rise up, there's no harm to Putin. Instead Putin's mostly ignoring the Kursk issue and is focusing on the main goal in south-east Ukraine.


"The fact that they are not withdrawing their troops from Donetsk is clear: their troops are the most prepared there and this is their strategic direction — they really want to occupy Donetsk," Zelensky added."
 
Yeah, that's exactly the image of the required future

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This is all good in Kursk, but what's happening in Donetsk? We can't risk confirmation bias by just reporting on successes, but instead should look at the larger picture. Putin knows that Ukraine doesn't have the stomach to harm Russian civilians in Kursk and that its NATO backers won't allow Russian territory to be annexed postwar. So unless the people rise up, there's no harm to Putin. Instead Putin's mostly ignoring the Kursk issue and is focusing on the main goal in south-east Ukraine.


"The fact that they are not withdrawing their troops from Donetsk is clear: their troops are the most prepared there and this is their strategic direction — they really want to occupy Donetsk," Zelensky added."

The Russian MoD is doing the right thing from their point-of-view, keeping their focus on their own offensive and devoting minimal forces to the Ukrainian incursion -- which has no crucial aims on an operational level.

The Russian offensive aims are to discombobulate Ukrainian logistics in the Donets basin, while the Ukrainian offensive aims to buy territory and prisoners for trading. The former is more direct, the latter is more aimed at negotiating. The Kursk offensive has probably reached culmination, while the Donets attacks still have more Russian gun-fodder to suck up .30-cal and 155 rounds.

The harm to Putin from the Ukrainian offensive is political, so asking local Russians to rise up would be to worsen the political issue. That's why he's evacuating them. He will get Russians out of there and keep the schwerpunkt down south.

When your offensive is grinding forward, you don't overreact to something that has no direct threat. Ergo, the Russian military leadership is playing this correctly.
 
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While I like the idea of crossing the undefended Russian border instead of trying to go through the Surovikin Line's minefields and tank traps, the direction does not appear to support Ukraine's goals. Instead of using Ukraine's limited forces to open a resource-hungry second front, why not use these seemingly-available AFU forces to cross the undefended border at Kharkiv, race down the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and then cross the "mostly" undefended border into Russian-held Luhansk and race towards Sievierodonetsk while attacking Russia's undefended rear.
 
While I like the idea of crossing the undefended Russian border instead of trying to go through the Surovikin Line's minefields and tank traps, the direction does not appear to support Ukraine's goals. Instead of using Ukraine's limited forces to open a resource-hungry second front, why not use these seemingly-available AFU forces to cross the undefended border at Kharkiv, race down the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and then cross the "mostly" undefended border into Russian-held Luhansk and race towards Sievierodonetsk while attacking Russia's undefended rear.

Swinging south to interdict the supplies flowing to the Russian Donets offensive presents a long left flank ripe for attack.
 
True, but unlike the disconnected Kursk campaign, I'm expecting a Ukrainian swing into Luhansk's rear to be coordinated with a solid AFU push from its front.

You're gonna need a bigger boat. Support from the front will be facing prepped defenses, and the Ukrainian flanking movement will still have Russian reserves able to strike once the Ukrainians swing south.
 
I was looking at the maps of the Kursk-Ukraine border. I am having a hard time pinning out the myriad small rivers in therein. It seems the AFU is expanding to control up to those rivers and establishing a natural, defendable border. Behind those rivers and the former border are these lovely trench networks built by the Russians. It seems to my aging eyes that Ukraine is actually straightening out its defensive line thereby requiring less troops to guard that section of the border than before.
 
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Keep an eye on the Russian successes - t appears that their rapid gains may not be what they seem.

In this assessment, note the language of Ukraine's rapid withdrawal, which is causing a bulge in the lines.

This is cause for a "hmmm..."

 

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