"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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As far as the "false flag" oil storage raid, one news broadcast showed eight storage tanks burning. A little much for a "false flag".

By the way, a friend sent an E-mail video of a flight of the co-ax rotor attack choppers being eliminated by Stingers, or similar, with only one chopper seeming to get away. It appears three? missiles detonated early just behind the tail rotors requiring a second shot to finish the job. Impressive to me.
 
"I'm going after your fuel" is always good messaging in wartime. because it's a cut-throat move and demoralizing. But the gallons burned off probably mean more than the messaging. That's fuel that can't be used to schlep troops.

The Russian conscript already seems demoralized, to judge from results.
 
GrauGeist said:
The Ukraine provides a considerable amount produce, but they aren't even in the top ten exporters.

So we're going to be ok.
Click to expand...
Depends on the product. Top 1 in sunflower oil exports, top 4-5 in wheat and corn, etc. Some countries in Africa and Asia depended a lot on Ukraine's food supplies. Ironically, the list included China with over 40% of sunflower oil coming from Ukraine before the invasion.
Export prices across the world continue to climb up, in some sectors such as dairy and edible oils, up to 5%-7% per week.
 
Some of my customers have seen prices up a 40% in grain just the day the war started and after that more rise.

No more chicken coming from Ukrainia so other producers get an avalanche of orders, rising the prices more, already rised by the rise of grains.

High energy and oil prices further hitting producers and the supply chain.

Don't expect lower inflación any time soon in the first world. The developing and third worlds may even have to brace for shortage.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Looks like much of the world is going to starve.

Click to expand...
Some countries will suffer. And we do know where those countries are.
This is from my last year's investor pitch deck (I'm in the food exports business). The first slide is about food products in general, the second is about proteins.
Life is unfair for the poorer nations. On the other hand, new opportunities for exporters, for example for edible oil producers in Canada.

 
Exactly. Add to that the deficit of fertilisers...
It's hard to predict the ripple effect. Hopefully, "the invisible hand" and creativity will help to avoid the worst.
From history: Japan seized natural rubber plantations in WWII and the synthetic rubber industry expanded.
 
As the chances fade that Russia will decapitate Ukraine's government and seize the capital, concerns are growing that Moscow could seek to force Kyiv to give up part of its territory to end the five-week war and eke out some form of victory.

Ukrainian leaders warned of such a possibility this week, saying they will not accept any peace deal that requires ceding land.

But if the Kremlin succeeds in encircling and defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, the country's industrial heartland, keeping that territory could become Moscow's principal demand in negotiations.

"I see the Russian troops regrouping, reorganizing. I think that they will try to surround the Ukrainian forces quite soon — in the Donbas region in particular," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Thursday. "And then having captured one-third of the land in Ukraine, they will want to negotiate from this … very strong position."

As Russian forces move east, Ukraine digs in against losing Donbas

As the chances fade that Russia will decapitate Ukraine’s government and seize the capital, concerns are growing that Moscow could seek to force Kyiv to give up part of its territory to end t…
thehill.com

Zelenskyy is also accusing retreating RF forces of mining and booby-trapping cities and country-side both. Add another war crime to the list.

Also:

The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday.

A U.S. official, who spoke to the outlet on the condition of anonymity, did not give provide a timeline on the tanks' transfer, but noted that the movement will happen soon. The official also did not provide details on which countries the U.S. was assisting to move the military vehicles.

The transfer marks the first time in the conflict that the U.S. has assisted directly to transfer military resources to Ukraine and comes in direct response to a request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky has asked the West to transfer weapons for weeks, the source told the Times.

US to assist allies moving Soviet tanks to Ukraine: report

The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday. A U.S. …
thehill.com

The Pentagon is also sending an additional $300,000,000 in aid including counter-drone systems, more Switchblades, and more small arms.

The next couple of weeks will show if the Ukrainians can hold out in the Donbas or not. I think the Russians will be aiming for an encirclement battle.
 
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Strange how things turn out. Western Australia usually produces about 7 million tons of wheat per season.
The 2021 harvest was however a new record at close to 12 million tons so there is a bit extra available.

Countries such as Egypt need to be catered for this year as wheat from Ukraine and Russia makes up 85% of their
imports. People in Egypt also have a higher intake per capita of wheat than most countries.

I am hoping these requirements can be met or at least substitutes provided.

Most countries are not going to notice much difference and the capability of agricultural producers around the world
is just getting so much better all the time.
 
special ed said:
This is the video to go with post 3481
View attachment 663422
Click to expand...
I've been looking at this and finally worked out what it was that for me is missing. Clearly the helicopters are under attack and taking very serious losses, but there doesn't seem to be any defensive measures in the form of chaff or IR decoy flares. They just seem to being forced to take the hits.
The way the second one suddenly pitched up and gained height makes me think it must have been hit by small arms or LAA hits as that kind of action often happens if the pilot is hit. Hugging the ground would seem to be their best bet but they just carried on at the same level
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
But if the Kremlin succeeds in encircling and defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, the country's industrial heartland, keeping that territory could become Moscow's principal demand in negotiations.
Click to expand...
Absolutely that's the goal. That might have been Plan A or Plan B right from the get go.

Stephens: What if Putin didn't miscalculate?

What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?
www.yahoo.com

"Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine's east, which contain Europe's second-largest known reserves of natural gas."

Ukraine must push out the Russians from eastern and southern Ukraine. If they don't, they'll survive the war but lose the Peace. To do this Ukraine needs renewed offensive capability. They need tanks for starters; a little late but Biden's making some moves on that. Though I'm not sure why ex-NATO tanks are okay but MiGs are not.

US to assist allies moving Soviet tanks to Ukraine: report

The U.S. will help allies move Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine in an effort to assist the country in protecting its Donbas region amid the Russian invasion, The New York Times reported Friday. A U.S. …
thehill.com

But what about mobile artillery, and more air power? Ukraine can't fight an offensive war with just rifles, MANPATS and willpower.
 
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