"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (1 Viewer)

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Escuadrilla Azul said:
A pirric victory so far.

Huge losses, not achieving a regimen change in Ukrainia, almost total isolation from the outside world, a united western front, Sweden and Finland bound to NATO arms, EU determined to end dependence on russian oil&gas.

The eastern ukrainian gains for RF are to be temporal, Zelensky said. And frankly, so far Zelensky seems a much more reliable source than Uncle Vlad & Co.
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As I look at Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, they mostly seem to be in areas where Ukrainian forces were previously at risk of being cut off. The push north out of Crimea south coupled with the advance south from Kharkiv theatened to cut off the best of Ukraine's army that was still holding Russian forces in the Donbas. The fact that areas in that eastern region are now being occupied by Russian troops suggest that the Ukranian forces have staged a deliberate retreat so they don't get encircled. If that's the case, then I can definitely see this war lasting a long time and that Russian forces will eventually get ground down.
 
Admiral Beez said:
So, what happens if Putin dies before the end of 2022?
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That could be the face saving Rusia need. Blanes on the dead.
Admiral Beez said:
Is there a successor?
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That's the big question. In a country that autocratic where the leader is so paranoid that make efforts so nobody can rise against him, who will/could take the reins of the country? Will the russian federation fall apart? It won't be clever for the West to pursuit such a move cos in 20 years another Uncle Vlad could rise again under the banner of western mangling Rusia and then, back in time to the early 2000s.

Typos edited.
 
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I notice from the UK MOD they do not believe that Russia is making any significant gains

Russia takes small towns but makes "no major gains," say UK officials: Russia has captured dozens of small towns and settlements in its assault on the eastern Donbas region, and Ukrainian officials describe continued heavy fighting throughout Donetsk and Luhansk there. A situation report by the UK's Ministry of Defense, however, said on Saturday that Russian forces had made "no major gains" in the past 24 hours, in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian air and sea defenses have also been able to stop the progress of Russian air and maritime forces, the ministry added in a post on social media.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
Whatever troops the Russians have sent against Mariupol will definitely need to recuperate. Urban operations against a determined enemy are very debilitating.
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at6 said:
The U N Secretary General might as well be a nobody. It's like stitching a pecker to a sow and expecting piglets.
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at6 said:
The U N Secretary General might as well be a nobody. It's like stitching a pecker to a sow and expecting piglets.
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Like it or not, the UN is organized and structured exactly how the US wanted it to be when it was organized: powerless in any disagreement involving the five permanent members of the security council.
 
Escuadrilla Azul said:
That could be the face saving Rusia need. Blanes on the dead.

That's the big question. In a country that autocratic where the leader is so paranoid that make efforts so nobody can rise against him, Who will/could take the reina of the country? Will the russian federation fall apart? It won't be clever for the West to pursuit such a mover cos in 20 years another Uncle Vlad could rise again under the banner of western mangling Rusia and then, back in time to the early 2000s.
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Since Vladimir Putin belongs to the party that holds 95% of seats in the Duma, the probable, and most stable, solution would be to have the next "annointed one" from The Party (sounds like Communism, doesn't it?) move in to take Putin's place, with just a sprinkling of faked election to give the illusion that there's some kind of democratic process at work. My bet would be on Medvedev as the successor after Putin.

The other option is that the power vacuum generates enough space for contrary views to be expressed once more, in which case things could get messy. There has been talk of a civil war in Russia but I think a lot of that depends on how Putin's Praetorian Guard (which numbers over 300,000 men!) and the FSB respond to Putin's death. If they don't like the next "annointed one" then things could get really ugly.
 
buffnut453 said:
Since Vladimir Putin belongs to the party that holds 95% of seats in the Duma, the probable, and most stable, solution would be to have the next "annointed one" from The Party (sounds like Communism, doesn't it?) move in to take Putin's place, with just a sprinkling of faked election to give the illusion that there's some kind of democratic process at work. My bet would be on Medvedev as the successor after Putin.
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That is the most probable outcome, but Medvedev? Isn't him amortized?

With 300.000 praetorians, things could get very nasty for all the world if there is a fight for power between two or more.
 
The United States and allied countries are racing against the clock to ship weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine amid a brutal and renewed Russian attack on the country's east.

Juggling supply chain demands, weapons needs and the logistics of actually getting defense aid into Ukraine, the balance is pivotal in Ukraine's effort to hold the Donbas region, according to officials and experts.

"Having a continuous flow of just supplies and munitions, like ammunition, is critical," said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"You know, it's not very high visibility, it's not very exciting, but that's what keeps armies functioning," he added.

[...]

"Eight to 10 flights a day are going into the theater, and not all of those flights are American flights, but most of them are. And every single day, including this day, there has been ground movement inside Ukraine. So we have seen no slowing down," Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said Thursday, highlighting the frantic pace of deliveries.

[...]

But the fact remains that the U.S. doesn't have a terribly reliable way to track what happens to arms shipments after they cross into Ukraine, including what units they go to and how they're used.

The blind spots are linked to several factors, including the fog of war and the fact that many of the arms being sent in are smaller, man portable systems such as single use drones and shoulder-fired rockets. Those easy-to-transport weapons are far harder to track compared to larger systems such as tanks, air defense systems or aircraft.

thehill.com

US races clock to ship weapons to Ukraine

The United States and allied countries are racing against the clock to ship weapons and other military equipment to Ukraine amid a brutal and renewed Russian attack on the country’s east. Juggling&…
thehill.com thehill.com
 
Escuadrilla Azul said:
By amortized I didn't mean that he has had a heart attack, I was meaning that he has been expended was a backup for Uncle Vlad.

Always thought that he was playing the good cop role of the pair.
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He resigned as Prime Minister when Putin essentially got rid of the role. However, Putin had named him as his own successor. Medvedev is still Deputy Chairman of the Security Council (Putin is the Chairman) which advises Putin on security and strategic affairs. He also leads the United Russia party which holds most seats in the Duma (approx 75%) and has actively supported Putin's policies. I'm pretty sure Medvedev is the front-runner to replace Putin. Frankly, I'm not sure he'd be much of an improvement.
 
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Yet another example of Russian precision targeting, this time in Odesa:





Now...I can see the need to target civilian infrastructure if it's being used to attack your own forces. High buildings provide a good vantage point for MANPAD and MANPAT weapons. However, there aren't any Russian forces even remotely close to Odesa, so there's no way this apartment block can be claimed as a legitimate target. Ukrainian sources state five people were killed, including a 3-month old baby, and 18 were wounded in this attack.
 
Well, he was counting on a few things that didn't pan out. He expected Zelensky to cut and run at the first application of force. He was counting on a rapid disintegration of Ukrainian resistance with his pro-Russia Quislings quickly taking control of the government with Russian support. He was counting on a paralysed or lack lustre response from NATO.
 
I am willing to bet that this disaster, which not only backfired in an epic fashion, but also laid bare to the world that the mighty Russian military is a third-rate clown show, is putting immemse amounts of stress on Putin.

If his health was in bad shape before this "special operation", I can only imagine what's like now - stress alone, can be a killer.
 
GrauGeist said:
I am willing to bet that this disaster, which not only backfired in an epic fashion, but also laid bare to the world that the mighty Russian military is a third-rate clown show, is putting immemse amounts of stress on Putin.

If his health was in bad shape before this "special operation", I can only imagine what's like now - stress alone, can be a killer.
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Stress can be a killer? We can only hope!
 
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