"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

SaparotRob said:

If Moldova were to try and unify with Romania (NATO), how would Transnistria figure in it?

Click to expand...

Earlier in the thread, we were suggesting that Ukraine should attack Transnistria to liberate it and give it back to Moldova. The problem for Moldova is that the Dnister River forms a natural barrier between Transnistria and the rest of Moldova, and the Moldovan military was unable to get across that barrier. HOWEVER (capitals intentional), there's no such barrier to the northeast of Transnistria, which means it could be easily attacked by Ukrainian forces.

The hypothesis is that if Ukraine attacks Transnistria, Russia won't be able to do anything because its forces are committed elsewhere. Ukrainian forces working in conjunction with the Moldovan military might be able to eradicate the Russian separatist forces in Transnistria, thus reunifying it with Moldova. If Moldova then rejoins Romania (it was part of the country for many years), then Moldova automatically gets NATO protection, the Transnistria problem is resolved...and, better yet, there isn't a damn thing that Putin can do about it.

Thus the context for my comment about explosions in Transnistria. If we are seeing efforts by Moldova to re-take Transnistria, then we could be seeing something akin to the theory that we developed here.

The more I think about it, the more I like this idea.

That's what I was thinking. With Russian aircraft restricted from NATO airspace, a corridor to the sea might get interesting for our plucky little Stalinists.

And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.

If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands...

Hmmm . . .

February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.

March 31 Explosion at Russian arms depot in Belgorod, 25 miles (40 km) from the Ukraine border. 4 people injured. Although initial media reports claimed that the explosion was caused by a UAF Tochka-U missile strike, Russian officials subsequently reported that the explosion was caused by a fire. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces.

April 1 Major fire at the fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, 21 miles (34 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters were responsible. However, Secretary of Ukraine's national security council Oleksiy Danilov, denied responsibility for the attack. "For some reason, they say that we did it, but in fact this does not correspond with reality," he said on Ukrainian television. Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych said: "We are holding defensive military operations on our own territory … Everything that happens on Russian territory is the responsibility of the Russian leadership. All questions to them."

April 21 Major fire breaks out at Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma, around 210 miles ENE of Moscow and about 540 miles (870 km) from the Ukraine border. The plant is described as "the largest producer of butyl acetate and industrial solvents in Russia" and possibly including eastern Europe. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 21 Major fire at the Russian Defense Ministry's Central Research Institute in the city of Tver, 180 kilometers northwest of Moscow and 350+ miles (564+ km) from the Ukraine border. 17 dead and "dozens" injured. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 23 Russian media report that explosive projectiles hit residential buildings in the Bryansk region. 7 injured. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters are responsible. (Western COMINT and HUMINT says that the local AAA units fired at a drone (maybe) and the damage to the residential buildings and injuries to people were caused by the AAA projectiles.)

April 24 Major fires at 2 large oil depots (1 civilian and 1 military) in the city of Bryansk, 95 miles (154 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials report no injuries or deaths, and say they are investigating. Note that the civilian oil depot is connected to the world's longest oil pipeline (Druzhba) feeding Russian oil to Europe.

So far, Ukraine has either denied or not responded to suggestions that it has struck targets inside Russia.

edited, with some bits added

GrauGeist said:

And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.

If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands...

Click to expand...

And AGAIN...we can only hope!

ThomasP said:

Hmmm . . .

February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.

March 31 Explosion at Russian arms depot in Belgorod, 25 miles (40 km) from the Ukraine border. 4 people injured. Although initial media reports claimed that the explosion was caused by a UAF Tochka-U missile strike, Russian officials subsequently reported that the explosion was caused by a fire. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces.

April 1 Major fire at the fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, 21 miles (34 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters were responsible. However, Secretary of Ukraine's national security council Oleksiy Danilov, denied responsibility for the attack. "For some reason, they say that we did it, but in fact this does not correspond with reality," he said on Ukrainian television. Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych said: "We are holding defensive military operations on our own territory … Everything that happens on Russian territory is the responsibility of the Russian leadership. All questions to them."

April 22 Major fire at the Russian Defense Ministry's Research Institute in the city of Tver, 180 kilometers northwest of Moscow and 350+ miles (564+ km) from the Ukraine border. 17 dead and "dozens" injured. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 23 Russian media report that explosive projectiles hit residential buildings in the Bryansk region. 7 injured. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters are responsible. (Western COMINT and HUMINT says that the local AAA units fired at a drone (maybe) and the damage to the residential buildings and injuries to people were caused by the AAA projectiles.)

April 24 Major fires at 2 large oil depots (1 civilian and 1 military) in the city of Bryansk, 95 miles (154 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials report no injuries or deaths, and say they are investigating.

So far, Ukraine has either denied or not responded to suggestions that it has struck targets inside Russia.

Click to expand...

Do not fall for fake news. According to Russian state media, it was strictly due to Russian incompetence.

SaparotRob said:

According to Russian state media, it was strictly due to Russian incompetence.

Click to expand...

Ideologically motivated "incompetence"?

Russia is hitting the Ukrainain railway networks. It's 950 miles from Lviv to Dnipro, and then another 200 miles to the frontlines. Does Ukraine have the means to repair the railways? I wonder if Poles and other foreign non-combatants have been brought in to help with repairs.

Added another recent incident to my post#4,884

April 21 Major fire breaks out at Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma, around 340 km ENE of Moscow and 540 miles (870 km) from the Ukraine border. The plant is described as "the largest producer of butyl acetate and industrial solvents in Russia" and possibly including eastern Europe. Russian officials say they are investigating.

The plant became a total loss. Note that the chemical plant produces a large amount of additives for use in fuels also.

Seems like a lot of fuel-production resources inside Russia are having, uh, issues.

Although I am familiar with the concepts used in computer systems and networks, I am not particularly knowledgable concerning anything above basic computer programming. But I have been told by someone who is very capable in the area that the Cyber Partisans (which I mentioned in my post#4,884 up-thread) have embedded their channel(s) in the Telegram network system so thoroughly, that if the Russians want to stop them from operating over Telegram they will have to shut down the Telegram network system for something like 90% of its subscribers.

swampyankee said:

Alas, at least in the US, there is a very strong cabal of politicians and ideologues who want to cripple public education and replace it with their newspeak falsehoods.

Click to expand...

If you get to teach your alternate reality as historical fact, after a couple generations you've done away with those pesky dissenters. Or so you imagine.

Let's get back to the topic, and get away from the politically fueled off topic stuff gents.

GrauGeist said:

And if Moldova does make such a move, then perhaps Georgia would get on board.

If Putler is stressing now, over how his plans are falling apart, I can imagine the idiot having a stroke when word reaches him that he has a three front war on his hands...

Click to expand...

If I believed in god I would pray for that.

MiTasol said:

If I believed in god I would pray for that.

Click to expand...

Well, here's something to consider.

Putin rose through the ranks from a nobody to "imperious leader" (just like a WWI Corporal).

He dreams of restoring the glory of the Soviet Union (just lime the thousand year Reich).

Putin has used "protecting ethnic Russians" as a means to regain territory lost (just like Germany did in the late 30's).

Putin used a "false flag" ruse to justify an invasion in 2014 (like Hitler did in 1939).

Putin invaded the Ukraine under the auspices of fighting Nazis (Germany invaded the Soviet Union under the auspices of fighting Communism).

Putin's invasion has galvanized the free world against Russia much like Germany galvanized the world against it eight decades ago.

Germany's efforts proved to be a tactical challenge to stop and overcome, Russia, not so much.

In the end, Hitler took a bullet to the head - we can only hope Putin will follow Hitler's example.

Su-34 down in Balakliya (Kharkiv oblast) on the 25th.


Speculation is that it was hit by Starstreak. Flat spin and another video shows a burst of fire coming from one engine.

Both occupants ejected.

So far confirmed (photo/video) Su-34 losses are 8 aircraft. Total verified Russian fixed wing losses are 25-30 aircraft, depending on open intelligence source. Ukraine claims 181 Russian aircraft downed, including seven in the last three days.

GrauGeist said:

Well, here's something to consider.

Putin rose through the ranks from a nobody to "imperious leader" (just like a WWI Corporal).

He dreams of restoring the glory of the Soviet Union (just lime the thousand year Reich).

Putin has used "protecting ethnic Russians" as a means to regain territory lost (just like Germany did in the late 30's).

Putin used a "false flag" ruse to justify an invasion in 2014 (like Hitler did in 1939).

Putin invaded the Ukraine under the auspices of fighting Nazis (Germany invaded the Soviet Union under the auspices of fighting Communism).

Putin's invasion has galvanized the free world against Russia much like Germany galvanized the world against it eight decades ago.

Germany's efforts proved to be a tactical challenge to stop and overcome, Russia, not so much.

In the end, Hitler took a bullet to the head - we can only hope Putin will follow Hitler's example.

Click to expand...

You mean die of the famous Russian "natural causes".

Here is a link to a pretty good summary of what weaponry and other military equipment the US has sent/is currently scheduled to send to Ukraine:

"Ghost drones, helicopters and howitzers: Here's a look at the weapons the U.S. is sending Ukraine"

A nice boost to Ukraine mobile air defence.


Not exactly 2020s tech, but neither are the Russians.

This is exactly what I feared would happen. The UN boss is going to call for a ceasefire, gallingly deciding to meet with Putin before Zelensky!

We must end the war - UN secretary general tells Lavrov

And Putin might just say sure, and then keep all the territorial gains. The UN boss should instead be demanding that Russia return the seized territory. Ukraine must not accept a ceasefire while their territories been held. They'll lose the Peace for certain if they do.