"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (14 Viewers)

[buffnut453]

Bolster Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia's defenses and use them as a supply corridor.

Not really an option. The following is from Wiki (yes...I know) but it gives a gist of the problems the three tiny Baltic nations faced in 1939. The focus is Latvia but the others were little different:

Early in the morning of 24 August 1939, the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany signed a 10-year non-aggression pact, called the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact.[52]​ The pact contained a secret protocol, revealed only after Germany's defeat in 1945, according to which the states of Northern and Eastern Europe were divided into German and Soviet "spheres of influence".[53]​ In the north, Latvia, Finland and Estonia were assigned to the Soviet sphere.[53]​ A week later, on 1 September 1939, Germany invaded Poland; on 17 September, the Soviet Union invaded Poland as well.[54]​: 32 ​

After the conclusion of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, most of the Baltic Germans left Latvia by agreement between Ulmanis's government and Nazi Germany under the Heim ins Reich programme.[55]​ In total 50,000 Baltic Germans left by the deadline of December 1939, with 1,600 remaining to conclude business and 13,000 choosing to remain in Latvia.[55]​ Most of those who remained left for Germany in summer 1940, when a second resettlement scheme was agreed.[56]​ The racially approved being resettled mainly in Poland, being given land and businesses in exchange for the money they had received from the sale of their previous assets.[54]​: 46 ​

On 5 October 1939, Latvia was forced to accept a "mutual assistance" pact with the Soviet Union, granting the Soviets the right to station between 25,000 and 30,000 troops on Latvian territory.[57]​ State administrators were murdered and replaced by Soviet cadres.[58]​ Elections were held with single pro-Soviet candidates listed for many positions. The resulting people's assembly immediately requested admission into the USSR, which the Soviet Union granted.[58]​ Latvia, then a puppet government, was headed by Augusts Kirhenšteins.[59]​ The Soviet Union incorporated Latvia on 5 August 1940, as the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic.


The 5 Oct 39 "mutual assistance pact" doesn't give a lot of time for Latvia to be a funnel for arms to Poland...and it's a route that could easily be closed given the distance of any Allies from the Baltic nations.

One other thing that leapt out at me from the Wiki page was the rather chilling part of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact about respective "spheres of influence" for Nazi Germany and the USSR. We're hearing that EXACT term being used by Moscow to rationalize its actions today in Ukraine....because the west is impinging on what Moscow sees as its rightful area of hegemony. We truly are seeing efforts to replay WW2 and resurrect the USSR.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Hmmm . . .

February "Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines." (WAPO) The computer hacking group calls itself the Cyber Paritsans, and has established its own channel(s) operating within Telegram. Since the railway attacks, its Telegram channel has ballooned to over 62,000 followers, who have offered assistance and encouragement, donated bitcoin, and suggested new targets in an effort to slow Russia's advance.

March 31 Explosion at Russian arms depot in Belgorod, 25 miles (40 km) from the Ukraine border. 4 people injured. Although initial media reports claimed that the explosion was caused by a UAF Tochka-U missile strike, Russian officials subsequently reported that the explosion was caused by a fire. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stated that the explosion was a result of negligence by Russian forces.

April 1 Major fire at the fuel depot in the city of Belgorod, 21 miles (34 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters were responsible. However, Secretary of Ukraine's national security council Oleksiy Danilov, denied responsibility for the attack. "For some reason, they say that we did it, but in fact this does not correspond with reality," he said on Ukrainian television. Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych said: "We are holding defensive military operations on our own territory … Everything that happens on Russian territory is the responsibility of the Russian leadership. All questions to them."

April 21 Major fire breaks out at Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kineshma, around 210 miles ENE of Moscow and about 540 miles (870 km) from the Ukraine border. The plant is described as "the largest producer of butyl acetate and industrial solvents in Russia" and possibly including eastern Europe. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 21 Major fire at the Russian Defense Ministry's Central Research Institute in the city of Tver, 180 kilometers northwest of Moscow and 350+ miles (564+ km) from the Ukraine border. 17 dead and "dozens" injured. Russian officials say they are investigating.

April 23 Russian media report that explosive projectiles hit residential buildings in the Bryansk region. 7 injured. Russian officials say Ukrainian helicopters are responsible. (Western COMINT and HUMINT says that the local AAA units fired at a drone (maybe) and the damage to the residential buildings and injuries to people were caused by the AAA projectiles.)

April 24 Major fires at 2 large oil depots (1 civilian and 1 military) in the city of Bryansk, 95 miles (154 km) from the Ukraine border. Russian officials report no injuries or deaths, and say they are investigating. Note that the civilian oil depot is connected to the world's longest oil pipeline (Druzhba) feeding Russian oil to Europe.

So far, Ukraine has either denied or not responded to suggestions that it has struck targets inside Russia.

edited, with some bits added

Add this one too, near North Korea.

 

[buffnut453]

A nice boost to Ukraine mobile air defence.

Germany Signals Shift on Weapons to Ukraine With Tank Deliveries

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration signaled more weapons will flow to Ukraine after Germany took a first step to supply heavy weapons to the country by allowing delivery of anti-aircraft tanks to counter Russia’s invasion.

www.bloomberg.com

Not exactly 2020s tech, but neither are the Russians.

I really like this decision...it gives the Ukrainian military an additional dimension of air defence. It's incredibly frustrating, however, to see the news media referring to these as "tanks."

 

[buffnut453]

This war with Russia is the first time I think in my lifetime (b.1971) where the West has a clear binary war to fight. There is a clear bad guy; despotic, murderous Russia and a clear good guy; democratic, heroic Ukraine. Everything else up to now has seen the West stomping North Africans, Middle Easterners and Latin Americans for ambiguous WoT and/or WoD goals, oil/resource access, backing up friendly tyrants, regime change, etc. But this is as close to a localized WW2 fight between clearly good and bad as we can get.

Apart from Desert Storm where there was a clear good-guy who was invaded by a clear bad-guy. Now...Kuwait isn't a paragon of democracy or western standards, but I think the global response to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was pretty close to the "clear binary war" that you describe.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Apart from Desert Storm where there was a clear good-guy who was invaded by a clear bad-guy. Now...Kuwait isn't a paragon of democracy or western standards, but I think the global response to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait was pretty close to the "clear binary war" that you describe.

To be fair, that falls under the rubric of "access to oil/resources" that A Admiral Beez has mentioned. Most of us understood we were fighting for cheap gas, not Kuwaiti "democracy".

 

[MiTasol]

If you recall, prior to the U.S. entry into WWII, the U.S. was supplying material to Britain as they were managing to hold off Germany.

Then when Germany turned on the Soviet Union, the Allies provided material to them.

The entire world is sending aid to the Ukraine, not just "the West".

If the world had responded to Poland the same way in 1939, things would have been quite different.

Darn.

I always thought China and India were part of this world

 

[Crimea_River]

Its that world outside the US and its allies thing again. Don't forget all the African nations that abstained or voted for Russia as well.

 

[buffnut453]

To be fair, that falls under the rubric of "access to oil/resources" that A Admiral Beez has mentioned. Most of us understood we were fighting for cheap gas, not Kuwaiti "democracy".

Well....kindda but the "we want cheap oil" isn't a sufficient reason. In relative terms, Kuwait wasn't a massive oil producer in 1990...indeed, prior to Desert Storm, oil from Iraq was actually piped to Kuwait for processing. The combined amount of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil production wasn't sufficient to move Iraq above any of the "big 3" oil producers. Thus an argument could be made that, if the world had simply allowed Saddam to take over Kuwait, the impact on oil prices would have been insignificant because any attempt by Saddam to unilaterally increase prices could have been easily checked by other nations simply increasing their production to stabilize global prices.

Arguably, any global oil price increases were temporary in nature and were actually brought on by the Gulf War because of the uncertainty that conflict inevitably invokes. Iraq was, after all, the 4th largest military in the world. Everyone expected a long, drawn out fight with both supply and demand affected, thus prices increased. If the world had just shrugged and said "Meh...Saddam, you can have Kuwait" you can pretty much guarantee that oil prices wouldn't have changed much at all.

 

[Glider]

I really like this decision...it gives the Ukrainian military an additional dimension of air defence. It's incredibly frustrating, however, to see the news media referring to these as "tanks."

I remember going to a Farnborough Air Show where the Gepard was on display. It was a simple but effective display. The turret was tracking the aircraft doing their display's and a screen was available and you could just watch the sight following the display's.

As I said, simple but effective

 

[buffnut453]

I remember going to a Farnborough Air Show where the Gepard was on display. It was a simple but effective display. The turret was tracking the aircraft doing their display's and a screen was available and you could just watch the sight following the display's.

As I said, simple but effective

Plus the weapon has the advantage of looking like it belongs on a Star Wars movie set. It's just COOL LOOKING!

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Well....kindda but the "we want cheap oil" isn't a sufficient reason. In relative terms, Kuwait wasn't a massive oil producer in 1990...indeed, prior to Desert Storm, oil from Iraq was actually piped to Kuwait for processing. The combined amount of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil production wasn't sufficient to move Iraq above any of the "big 3" oil producers. Thus an argument could be made that, if the world had simply allowed Saddam to take over Kuwait, the impact on oil prices would have been insignificant because any attempt by Saddam to unilaterally increase prices could have been easily checked by other nations simply increasing their production to stabilize global prices.

Arguably, any global oil price increases were temporary in nature and were actually brought on by the Gulf War because of the uncertainty that conflict inevitably invokes. Iraq was, after all, the 4th largest military in the world. Everyone expected a long, drawn out fight with both supply and demand affected, thus prices increased. If the world had just shrugged and said "Meh...Saddam, you can have Kuwait" you can pretty much guarantee that oil prices wouldn't have changed much at all.

My understanding was that by taking Kuwait, Hussein was hoping to corner around 20% of the known reserves of that time, which would have given him leverage over pricing.

 

[buffnut453]

My understanding was that by taking Kuwait, Hussein was hoping to corner around 20% of the known reserves of that time, which would have given him leverage over pricing.

Maybe...but you still need to get those reserves out of the ground and persuade somebody to pay for them. According to some sources I've seen, Kuwaiti oil production was less than half that of Iraq in 1990...and Kuwait wasn't even in the top-10 of world oil producers. To me that just doesn't sound like the sort of leverage that could be executed immediately. It would be a long-term strategy which, as I noted, could have been offset by other means.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report.

Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any country that refuses Russian President Vladimir Putin's stipulation that countries pay for Russia's gas in rubles, but the European Union has insisted that in doing so, sanctions on Russia would be breeched.

Poland and Bulgaria are both members of the European Union, and the decision to cut off their gas is a major escalation in the fight. Both countries are also members of NATO.

Poland has also served as the main country housing refugees from neighboring Ukraine.

The warnings that gas would soon be cut off came from two different suppliers, PGNiG and Gazprom, according to Bloomberg.

Russia to cut off gas supply to Poland

Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report. Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any coun…

thehill.com

So, less gas for Poles and Hungarians, and less money for the Russians. Who suffers more?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Maybe...but you still need to get those reserves out of the ground and persuade somebody to pay for them. According to some sources I've seen, Kuwaiti oil production was less than half that of Iraq in 1990...and Kuwait wasn't even in the top-10 of world oil producers. To me that just doesn't sound like the sort of leverage that could be executed immediately. It would be a long-term strategy which, as I noted, could have been offset by other means.

Right, but we both know that markets respond skittish to even minor shocks. Look at what's happened at the gas pumps in the last three months for a fresh example of that fear/gouging mentality.

 

[buffnut453]

Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report.

Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any country that refuses Russian President Vladimir Putin's stipulation that countries pay for Russia's gas in rubles, but the European Union has insisted that in doing so, sanctions on Russia would be breeched.

Poland and Bulgaria are both members of the European Union, and the decision to cut off their gas is a major escalation in the fight. Both countries are also members of NATO.

Poland has also served as the main country housing refugees from neighboring Ukraine.

The warnings that gas would soon be cut off came from two different suppliers, PGNiG and Gazprom, according to Bloomberg.

Russia to cut off gas supply to Poland

Moscow announced that it will be cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria as of Wednesday, according to a Bloomberg report. Russia had previously threatened to cease gas supplies to any coun…

thehill.com

So, less gas for Poles and Hungarians, and less money for the Russians. Who suffers more?

Analysis on the BBC suggests Poland won't be impacted much. Apparently, their strategic gas reserve stores are 70% full and, with summer coming, demand will drop. Poland had already announced a plan to stop using Russian gas by the end of this year anyway...so any benefits for Russia in cutting off the supplies seem rather moot at this point.

 

[buffnut453]

Right, but we both know that markets respond skittish to even minor shocks. Look at what's happened at the gas pumps in the last three months for a fresh example of that fear/gouging mentality.

That's exactly my point. The idea that the West (and others) would embark on a war to liberate Kuwait caused a LOT of market volatility. If they'd just allowed Saddam to keep Kuwait without getting all excited about it, then I reckon the market fluctuations would have been a lot less and would have subsided sooner. As it was, the markets had 6 months of speculation about how a war with the world's 4th-largest military would go...and that had a big impact on prices. If the world had said "Meh" back in August 1990, I reckon the markets would have been back to normal before Halloween.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Analysis on the BBC suggests Poland won't be impacted much. Apparently, their strategic gas reserve stores are 70% full and, with summer coming, demand will drop. Poland had already announced a plan to stop using Russian gas by the end of this year anyway...so any benefits for Russia in cutting off the supplies seem rather moot at this point.

Let us hope the Beeb is right about this. The Poles have been magnificent in helping Ukraine both in taking in refugees and providing what aid they could.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

If the world had said "Meh" back in August 1990, I reckon the markets would have been back to normal before Halloween.

When you consider that at the time Hussein was the only known user of chemical weapons against folks, I don't think the markets would have been so copacetic. The guy wasn't known for being stable, which is what markets rely upon.

 

[buffnut453]

More on the Transnistria...Ukraine has expressed solidarity with Moldova:

As we've been reporting, there have been a series of explosions over the last couple of days in Transnistria, the Russian-controlled slice of territory in Moldova bordering Ukraine.

Ukraine's foreign ministry has pledged its support for Moldova's territorial integrity and accused Russia of trying to create unrest and destabilise the area.

It suggested Russia was attempting to drag the area into its war against Ukraine.

Writing on Twitter, Mykhaylo Podolyak, a Ukraine presidential aide, said "Ukraine will definitely ensure strategic security of the region. But we need to work as a team".

The Russian army has been fighting alongside separatists in Transnistria since the early 1990s.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I always thought China and India were part of this world

Just my two pennies, but enough with these gotcha moment fails.

India's aid to Ukraine

India's second tranche of humanitarian aid to Ukraine arrives in Romania by IAF flight | India News - Times of India

India News: BUCHAREST: India's second tranche of humanitarian aid to Ukraine arrived in Romania by IAF flight on Wednesday and will be further transported to war-.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

China's aid to Ukraine

China says it will offer 10 million yuan more of humanitarian aid to Ukraine

The Chinese Red Cross will offer an additional 10 million yuan ($1.57 million) of humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Aid to Ukraine needn't always be weapons, but any aid that helps keep Ukrainians healthy and fed contributes to the nation's combat capability.

The entire world is sending aid to the Ukraine, not just "the West".

Africa aside, most of the world is in. List of foreign aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War - Wikipedia