"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules

Is this data reliable? I'm curious about the possibility of the following
  1. Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
  2. State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
  3. State of Emergency declared in the United States as a precautionary measure
  4. Escalation to nuclear war

 
I don't know if this helps, but I find on my posts where I include a photo it comes out way too large. If you click edit you can grab the corner of the image and shrink it. I do that most times. It doesn't work when you initially post, even if you shrink the image before posting it still posts at the original huge size, but if you click edit after posting you can effectively shrink the image. Just my two pennies.
 
More from BBC....looks like Ukraine has hit a couple of small Russian Navy vessels:



A Ukrainian drone has destroyed two Russian patrol ships in the Black Sea, Ukraine's military chief says.

"Two Russian Raptor-class boats were destroyed at dawn today near Zmiinyi (Snake) Island," Chief of General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhniy says.

Unverified drone footage released by the Ukrainian military appears to show two ships being targeted by missiles from the air while on patrol in the Black Sea.

Moscow is yet to respond to the claim.
 
Fracture points within EU over Russian oil?

Budapest remains opposed to the introduction of an EU embargo on oil and gas imported from Russia, government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs says.

"The Hungarian stance regarding any oil and gas embargo has not changed: we do not support them," he says.

A total embargo on the two Russian fossil fuels is currently being considered by the EU Commission for inclusion in its sixth round of sanctions against Moscow.

EU energy ministers are hoping to reach a united stance on Russian gas and oil via a series of emergency talks this week.

However, Germany's Economy Minister Robert Habeck admits there's no unanimous view among the bloc's 27 countries on winding down supplies of Russian energy.

Of a potential oil embargo, he says: "Other countries aren't there yet, and I think that needs to be respected. In the case of gas, for example, we would not be ready either."

Moscow continues to state that foreign gas buyers must pay into its own private bank, Gazprombank, which would convert any dollars or euros into roubles.

The European Commission suggests European countries complying with Moscow's banking requirement may breach EU sanctions.
 


 
If that's accurate, the Russian navy has thus far lost...

1 x Slava-class guided missile cruiser (flagship of the fleet, Moskva)
1 x Tapir-class landing ship (BDK-65 Saratov). There's also some news of another, BDK-69 Orsk being also sunk, but IDK)
2 x Ropucha-class landing ships (not sunk, but significant damage)
3 x Raptor-class patrol boats

Next target should be the Kilo class SSK, Satellite photos show missiles being loaded onto Russian submarine. Dolphin pens, too.

Why did Ukraine scuttle its flagship, the Hetman Sahaidachny? With Moskva's loss the Sahaidachny would be one of the most powerful warships on the Black Sea. Were the Ukrainians unable to put to sea to avoid capture? When this war's over Ukraine will need a new flagship, maybe they can get one (or two) or the Type 23 frigates Britain is decommissioning.... though they're lacking in the land attack capability needed by the Ukrainians.
 
Last edited:
J_P_C said:
View attachment 666565
HM Intelligence opinion..., i will be grateful J Jagdflieger for making comments....
Click to expand...
Testing me? okay I will take on the bait,

The Russian army is in majority still on a Brigade/Regimental Tactical Group level, especially again since April. Since the Russian army (for whatever reason) does not deploy e.g. an entire Division but only parts of it - e.g. 1st Brigade of the 1st Division is deployed to X. 50% of this 1st Brigade is composed of e.g. 2 BTG's the rest of the Brigade isn't equipped and trained to operate as a BTG and therefore remains non-active. (staying at their base) Not every Russian Division or Brigade is BTG capable, therefore only some have the tactical elements of a BTG.

So yes around 120 BTG's constitute around 60% of Russia's BTG trained units. if you know about the composition and tactical role of a BTG, then you will also realize that these formations are totally self-dependent - meaning as some forum members posted, e.g. 1 BTG =700 men + about the same amount or more in a supportive role, is wrong. since they
run their own support, logistic, medical etc. within these approx. 700men strong BTG's. - that is why the Russians developed these BTG formations in the first place.

Actually very useful and capable - in a surprise or initial phase of an attack - especially when faced with irregulars or militias. (The latter is actually the reason for their implementation) The BTG tactics actually paid of very well in the initial occupation of e.g. Kiev-Hostomel airport by the VDV's BTG's and "some" forward based BTG elements of the "core" army. What caused the disaster wasn't the BTG tactics - but the total inability of the respective Army commands to give clear battle-orders and to ensure the continued supply of these BTG's. via the "standard" armed forces setting up supply depots/infrastructure.
Furthermore complicated by the issue of "standard" formations not even having the supplies needed by BTG's and the communication required to arrange logistics. BTG's are usually
prepared or entrusted with 2-4 day lasting operations.

Important to know is that most BTG capable Brigades and Regiments are drawn from the National Guard, Border-Guard Divisions, Naval infantry and from Militias - not really from the "core" army, or the conscript-regular army.
Entirely different story in regards to the BTG's from the VDV forces - basically 100% are organized in that tactical layout.

Coming back to the stats - the BTG units have suffered the brunt of the losses from 24th February till mid/end March - since April The Russian Army Command has to 85% relied on the "old" Brigade/Regimental tactical layout since there is no more a surprise element in their attack - and having realized that the UAF are in very well prepared defensive/urban areas
and equipped with suitable heavy equipment.

The question now remains if these "battered" BTG's are going to be refitted entirely and redeployed to their original base units or to a large part integrated into the combined arms-layout of an Brigade/Regimental Tactical Group level within newly found/designated divisions-in view of a general mobilization call. Personally I think that the Russians will opt for the latter possibility.
 
Last edited:
GrauGeist said:
The U.S. Navy will be retiring many of it's Ticonderoga class cruisers here soon - perhaps the Ukraine could use some?
Click to expand...
No, too manpower heavy and not suitable for the confines of the Black Sea. Ukraine needs short range, low-manpower frigates capable of NGFS and land attack missile strikes, plus AShM, ASW, SAM and CIWS capability.

It will need to be a second hand ship in order to manage cost. Something like Malaysia's British-made Lekiu-class frigates, but modified with more land attack capability.
 
GrauGeist said:
The Ticonderoga class fits inbetween the Slava class cruisers and the Krivak class frigates both in size and compliment.
Click to expand...
You can compliment them all you want, but the Ukrainians can't support a cruiser-sized complement.

If postwar, money can be had for acquisition and training on the automated systems, Ukraine could find the 80-100 complement for the Type 31 frigates that Poland has just announced. Though I'm not sure Ukraine will be able to afford new-built warships without significant foreign aid.

Poland strikes deal to buy British Type 31 Frigates

Babcock has won a bid to supply three new warships to Poland's navy.
www.forces.net

With its success with drones, man portable missiles and sigint; I would argue this war has clearly demonstrated that Ukraine needs to pursue military technology over manpower. The UAF of 2032, including its navy will look very different from today's.
 
Last edited:

Just a personal guess but these are my thoughts
  1. Cyber-attacks against the US that could cripple the country
    Cyber - attacks would be highly likely, indeed probable, but Crippling the country highly unlikely as a number have already been launched. One of the big surprises of the campaign is just how ineffective the Russian cyber attacks have been. Indeed they have been on the receiving end of some highly effective cyber attacks. In this and in so many ways Russia has been seen to be a paper Tiger. Confront it, see it for what it is and it loses a lot of its presumed strength, and with that, fear. I am not saying it should be discounted, but looked at in a realistic manner. The fantasy of one attack knocking out an entire country is so unlikely it's almost a fantasy. besides countries have contingency plans.
  2. State of Emergency declared in NATO countries as a precautionary measure
    Why? NATO is already a target for nuclear missiles, and have been for decades. In practical terms what has changed? If Russia makes a formal declaration of war against the Ukraine a more likely response would be NATO and other European countries will lose any inhibitions in giving the Ukraine forces what they need, in particular Aircraft. Russia's armed forces are suffering, can you imagine the additional pressure that would come if they lost control of the air?
  3. State of Emergency declared in the United States as a precautionary measure
    Same as (2)
  4. Escalation to nuclear war. In some ways an almost irrelevant question as if it did reach that stage, you and I, and everyone on the planet wouldn't be around as there are no winners
 
Interesting info regarding the Oligarch mentioned up-thread, who criticized the war.

From the NY Times:

Oleg Y. Tinkov was worth more than $9 billion in November, renowned as one of Russia's few self-made business tycoons after building his fortune outside the energy and minerals industries that were the playgrounds of Russian kleptocracy.
Then, last month, Mr. Tinkov, the founder of one of Russia's biggest banks, criticized the war in Ukraine in a post on Instagram. The next day, he said, President Vladimir V. Putin's administration contacted his executives and threatened to nationalize his bank if it did not cut ties with him. Last week, he sold his 35 percent stake to a Russian mining billionaire in what he describes as a "desperate sale, a fire sale" that was forced on him by the Kremlin.
"I couldn't discuss the price," Mr. Tinkov said. "It was like a hostage — you take what you are offered. I couldn't negotiate."
Mr. Tinkov, 54, spoke to The New York Times by phone on Sunday, from a location he would not disclose, in his first interview since Mr. Putin invaded Ukraine. He said he had hired bodyguards after friends with contacts in the Russian security services told him he should fear for his life, and quipped that while he had survived leukemia, perhaps "the Kremlin will kill me."
...
Indeed, Mr. Tinkov claimed that many of his acquaintances in the business and government elite told him privately that they agreed with him, "but they are all afraid."
...
"I've realized that Russia, as a country, no longer exists," Mr. Tinkov said, predicting that Mr. Putin would stay in power a long time. "I believed that the Putin regime was bad. But of course, I had no idea that it would take on such catastrophic scale."
The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.
Tinkoff, the bank Mr. Tinkov started in 2006, denied his characterization of events and said there had been "no threats of any kind against the bank's leadership." The bank, which announced last Thursday that Mr. Tinkov had sold his entire stake in the company to a firm run by Vladimir Potanin, a mining magnate close to Mr. Putin, appeared to be distancing itself from its founder.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

  • ... and 1 more.
    • Total: 5 (members: 2, guests: 3)

    Similar threads

    A
    The coming $26 billion windfall for the Canadian Armed Forces. What to buy?
    2
    Replies
    37
    Views
    1K
    Sisu
    S
    M
    All V-22's Grounded
    Replies
    2
    Views
    1K
    GTX
    M
    All This For The Low, Low Price of .....
    Replies
    19
    Views
    2K
    MIflyer
    M
    M
    The Wrath of KAAN?
    Replies
    3
    Views
    834
    Snautzer01
    M
    The USAF V-22 Mishap of 2023
    Replies
    2
    Views
    491
    Thumpalumpacus
    Menu
    Log in
    Register