"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

[Jagdflieger]

Ain't jumping on you. I think you bring up some good points though your sources may be suspect. Russian forces may be better or larger than Allied estimates. That seems to me an historical "fact" (Allies underestimating remaining Axis aircraft for example). One side can't know everything about its opponent. Perhaps you might be trying to sound a warning against "unbridled enthusiasm". That is something I am for. Never underestimate your enemy, although it's getting harder and harder for me at this point.
I do question your posting that considerable numbers of LNDR were "very well trained". RF forces up to this point have not demonstrated the training and capabilities that a first class, competent military should. That is my view.

No problem.
One needs to understand the actual setup of the Russian armed forces. just simply counting BTG's in Ukraine as being Russian regulars simply ain't true.
The only regulars (core) they have is around 350,000. (For the whole of Russia). Therefore never more then 40,000 of those were ever involved.
From those 800,000 conscript-regulars, Camel papers checking troops at most 150,000 are somewhat equivalent to the UAF. (Again for the whole of Russia)

Therefore the only feasible option I can see Russia enacting - is the formation of this territorial army. Once this army stands, IMO 2 years at most, there is no way for the Ukraine to get back their lost territory. Wait another 2-3 years and Russia will have their own additional forces to have a 3rd go at Ukraine - which is already and for the next years to come devoid of
any own significant industry and economic power.

 

[SaparotRob]

UAV? To me that means unmanned aerial vehicle.

 

[Admiral Beez]

More gains for Ukraine in the north...wish they could do likewise in the south:

Me too. I hope the UAF can muster the necessary mechanized forces for a quick drive on Mariupol. Those heroic men and women need to see the siege lifted.

 

[Jagdflieger]

i'm fully respecting your knowledge and experience (even consultants are my preferred group of peoples - no responsibility for words and actions) , and yes im aircraft engineer with little bit rusted military experience even i still have plenty friends in Ukraine who are sharing with me their knowledge in a matter we are talking about. Considering my lacks of expertise in this matter, please explain to me your standpoint - lets assume even russia have gained 100% of Donetsk and Lugansk regions - which is not a case - how possibly you may mobilize 200k troops from territory with population less than 1 mln????

AFAIK Russia and Human rights watch plus several more accepted international organizations have claimed/confirmed that 1,5-2,0 million Russo-Ukrainians were displaced into Russia between 2014-2020. Actually by those Putin termed (Nazi and fascist UKi units)
Bring these back, plus those presently still remaining and add if necessary 1 million "volunteer settlers" and the population will be at minimum around 4 million ( I got no idea as to how many right now are living additionally on the Crimea) so 4 million shouldn't be a problem to feed/nurture a 200-250,000 men strong army - paid anyway by Russia - how much internal unrest will actually occur is difficult to analyze but easier to remedy knowing that Russia aka Putin is actually no democrat at heart

 

[Glider]

Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.

There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective
Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.

Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south, there is no evidence as to what the Russian army is actually capable of in the meantime and lets say from August/September onward. This places the actual strength of the Russian Army in February-March at 70-80,000 men involved in combat
and supported by around the same number = so total around 140-160,000 men. Not taking the main force of the LDNR into account that was in a static role in the east till end of March.

You are correct I do not tire about bringing up the February Stats because they are a petty detailed breakdown of the order of battle at the start of the invasion. What I am waiting for is some comment from yourself as to those stats.
Its worth mentioning as you in the above section state : -
'Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south'
The stats that I show (which you don't seem to deny) come to massively more than the 75,000 you state. You could of course be correct but you will appreciate that we would like some form of supporting evidence to form a balanced opinion.

Just for a slight change in direction, can you give us your assessment of the losses suffered by the Russian and it's allied forces?

 

[Jagdflieger]

You are correct I do not tire about bringing up the February Stats because they are a petty detailed breakdown of the order of battle at the start of the invasion. What I am waiting for is some comment from yourself as to those stats.
Its worth mentioning as you in the above section state : -
'Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south'
The stats that I show (which you don't seem to deny) come to massively more than the 75,000 you state. You could of course be correct but you will appreciate that we would like some form of supporting evidence to form a balanced opinion.

Just for a slight change in direction, can you give us your assessment of the losses suffered by the Russian and allied forces?

I stated about 3-4 days ago that I would not be surprised to find out that Russia has already lost about 1000MBT's. - this figure was confirmed by the UAF stat published and posted yesterday. Whereby I have reasons to believe that around 60% of the Russian losses occurred around Kiev in the first 10-15 days.
Personally I tend more to the UAF stat then the one the UK department forwarded.

As for the UKF - since they have far more less hard targets to offer, and their defensive layout their losses can't be more then 15% of the RF
Since Russia so far has restrained from exessive cluster ammo usage and totally from vacuum bombs, manpower wise I would estimate UAF losses at 4000-5000.
Whereby Mariupol alone might increase this figure from 5000 to 8000.

What figures would you have?

 

[Glider]

I stated about 3-4 days ago that I would not be surprised to find out that Russia has already lost about 1000MBT's. - this figure was confirmed by the UAF stat published and posted yesterday. Whereby I have reasons to believe that around 60% of the Russian losses occurred around Kiev in the first 10-15 days.
Personally I tend more to the UAF stat then the one the UK department forwarded.

As for the UKF - since they have far more less hard targets to offer, and their defensive layout their losses can't be more then 15% of the RF
Since Russia so far has restrained from exessive cluster ammo usage and totally from vacuum bombs, manpower wise I would estimate UAF losses at 4000-5000.
Whereby Mariupol alone might increase this figure from 5000 to 8000.

What figures would you have?

I would go with your set of assumptions. If we work on the basis that approx 2-3 people are wounded for everyone that is killed, and split the difference between the UK earlier assessment of 15,000 killed and the Ukraine figure of about 21,000. That would give about 18,000 killed and 45,000 wounded giving an almost unbelievable casualty figure of 63,000 casualties out of a starting force of about 175,000, in the area of 1/3rd which is a real horror story.

There are of course no hard and fast stats, but the numbers are stacking up at a serious rate

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons against its neighbor.

Kinzinger announced the joint resolution during an interview with moderator Margaret Brennan on CBS's "Face the Nation." Asked if it is too soon to be discussing potential use of force in Ukraine, Kinzinger said, "No, I don't."

"I don't think we need to be using force in Ukraine right now. I just introduced an AUMF, an authorization for the use of military force, giving the president basically congressional leverage for permission to use it if WMDs, nuclear, biological or chemical are used in Ukraine," Kinzinger said.

The congressman said the AUMF would give Biden leverage, adding that the resolution could serve as a deterrent to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Doesn't compel the president to do it, it just says if it is used, he has that leverage. It gives him, you know, a better flexibility, but also it is a deterrent to Vladimir Putin," Kinzinger said.

"If Vladimir Putin wants to escalate with the West, he will. It's easy for him to do it. And I think right now what we're doing with supplying, with lend-lease, with the financing is right," he added.

Kinzinger introduces AUMF to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological, nuclear weapons

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukra…

thehill.com

I think this is a good step.

 

[Jagdflieger]

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons against its neighbor.

Kinzinger announced the joint resolution during an interview with moderator Margaret Brennan on CBS's "Face the Nation." Asked if it is too soon to be discussing potential use of force in Ukraine, Kinzinger said, "No, I don't."

"I don't think we need to be using force in Ukraine right now. I just introduced an AUMF, an authorization for the use of military force, giving the president basically congressional leverage for permission to use it if WMDs, nuclear, biological or chemical are used in Ukraine," Kinzinger said.

The congressman said the AUMF would give Biden leverage, adding that the resolution could serve as a deterrent to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Doesn't compel the president to do it, it just says if it is used, he has that leverage. It gives him, you know, a better flexibility, but also it is a deterrent to Vladimir Putin," Kinzinger said.

"If Vladimir Putin wants to escalate with the West, he will. It's easy for him to do it. And I think right now what we're doing with supplying, with lend-lease, with the financing is right," he added.

Kinzinger introduces AUMF to defend Ukraine if Russia uses chemical, biological, nuclear weapons

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) on Sunday introduced an authorization for use of military force (AUMF) resolution that, if passed, would authorize President Biden to utilize U.S. forces to defend Ukra…

thehill.com

I think this is a good step.

Well finally one western politician laying the cards on the table before Putin pulls his fantasy Joker.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Well finally one western politician laying the cards on the table before Putin pulls his fantasy Joker.

Agreed. Ambiguity in diplomacy can be a dangerous thing.

 

[GTX]

M777s gifted by Australia:

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Putin is inching towards his nukes, threatening to annihilate the world if he fails to capture Ukraine, says foreign affairs expert

The world has to stop Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, because he is an existential threat to the human civilization, international affairs expert Ivan Yakovina said in an interview with NV Radio. We print an edited transcript of the interview below:

www.yahoo.com

 

[SaparotRob]

M777s gifted by Australia:

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Good on ya', Mate!

 

[tomo pauk]

Since Russia so far has restrained from exessive cluster ammo usage and totally from vacuum bombs, manpower wise I would estimate UAF losses at 4000-5000.

TOS-1 was probably used in 2022, it's ordnance counts under 'vacuum bombs' IMO.

 

[Admiral Beez]

M777s gifted by Australia:

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Putin has to be itching to strike their airfields in Poland and thereabouts.

 

[ARTESH]

Several of my friends volunteered to join the Ukrainian Resistance ...

Some other Iranians from nearby countries, volunteered too!

 

[Admiral Beez]

Several of my friends volunteered to join the Ukrainian Resistance ...

"Resistance", as in partisans behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine? Or, volunteered to join the Ukrainian armed forces?

 

[SaparotRob]

I thought hyperbaric bombs were used attacking the steel plant in Mariupol.

 

[ARTESH]

"Resistance", as in partisans behind enemy lines in occupied Ukraine? Or, volunteered to join the Ukrainian armed forces?

I do not know much.

But the Ukrainian embassy was asking for those who want to help by fighting.

 

[ThomasP]

Interesting bit of info.

Although China has been somewhat politically supportive of Russia's actions re the Ukraine, they have also been somewhat quietly sending large amounts of humanitarian aid to the Ukraine (ie the Zelenskyy side of Ukraine) to the tune of about $10,000,000 since mid-march. Not a huge amount in the grand scheme, but it is a comment on what their view is regarding the happenings in Ukraine. The Chinese have been flying the supplies into Romania, from where it is trucked into Ukraine.

When asked why China was sending humanitarian aid to the Ukraine opposing the Russia invasion - which China has not condemned - the spokesman replied "Zhè shì zuòrén de wèntí" which translates as "It is a matter of being human".