"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (6 Viewers)

[ThomasP]

If a large majority of the combat troops on the separatist side were Ukraine natives, then Russia might be able to say (with a straight face) that this is actually a civil war - not an invasion - and Russia is just helping out the underdog.

During the last few months (beginning in November 2021) leading up to the invasion the separatist government/occupation authorities (at the 'urging' of the Russian government) attempted to enact a draft system. Unfortunately for the separatists and the Russians, the population as a whole was not in the mood to be drafted, and most refused to answer the summons and show up for intake. On February 19 the separatist government/occupation authorities ordered a general mobilization (which they do not have the authority to do under the separatist government's charter) and began forced conscription. Unfortunately for the separatist government/occupation authorities and the Russians, when they began using force to round up any of the registered citizens they could find - many of the potential conscripts hid or otherwise evaded the authorities, and many refused to cooperate. It is not known exactly how many were successfully conscripted, but the estimate is around 6,000.

 

[Jagdflieger]

let me ask just single basic question - what is your basis for making split between "separatist" and "russian units"? - both are conscripted under russian federation flag, equipped and commanded by russia. Is any difference if soldiers are conscripted in village under Vladivostok or Donetsk? Except of fact that this one from Donetsk are highly probable to shoot their own officers and change colors of the bands on their arms????

Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.

There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective
Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.

Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south, there is no evidence as to what the Russian army is actually capable of in the meantime and lets say from August/September onward. This places the actual strength of the Russian Army in February-March at 70-80,000 men involved in combat
and supported by around the same number = so total around 140-160,000 men. Not taking the main force of the LDNR into account that was in a static role in the east till end of March.

There are presently less then 35,000 regulars involved in combat since end of March - foremost in the southern Ukraine-parts and ca. 15-20,000 in combat on the eastern region. These troops are supported (not combat) by around 60-80,000 new conscript units. Making up a total force since end of March of around 100-135,000 Russian regular and newly conscripted units (the latter more then 60%). The ratio of Russian support troops to combat troops is not anywhere near the US or NATO standard.

Besides Mariupol (understandable) these 35,000 regulars involved in combat supported by larger parts of the LDNR in combat made quite an impressive territorial gain in the southern areas from Mariupol to the West, from mid March till mid April.

So to me Russia is fighting a war towards Ukraine on a very small scale since mid of March- especially after withdrawing around 60-80,000 regular troops into Belarus and the Russian Bryansk area in mid March. If these 60-80,000 are still in the "resting" area or constitute e.g. 50% of the presently assembling 100,000 regulars on the eastern front, I wouldn't know.

If I am correct about the small scale - then Putin and his Army command are taking a 2 year and more approach towards the Ukraine. Big $$$ spending for NATO and the EU, peanut $ for Russia.

The remaining question to me; is the 200,000 men strong LDNR getting better? (after all they have been in combat almost non-stop since 2014), or is it as most members here believe just 45,000 rag tags? And furthermore how many of these 200,000 LDNR in Feb.2022 are now already a part of these assembling 100,000 "Russian" regulars? and the 50,000 regular combat troops? - meaning Russia wouldn't need to bring in any additional troops of it's own - except to cover attrition, but they could rely onto a territorial force increasing it's capabilities and numbers whilst supporting this campaign with a mere 50,000-80,000 Russian troops.

Looks to me like a possible Russian-Ukraine remake of the US failed idea in Vietnam. so exact knowledge about the LDNR is of huge interest - at least to me.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Knock it off with the, insults all of you!

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

And while we are at it, if anyone is going to provide "facts" then back it up with sources.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Russia planned downing passenger jet, blaming Ukraine Security Service of Ukraine

Valentyna Romanenko - Sunday, 1 May 2022, 12:09 The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims to have apprehended a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group that was preparing to shoot down a passenger plane and blame it on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the international partners supplying arms...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Jagdflieger]

Russia planned downing passenger jet, blaming Ukraine Security Service of Ukraine

Valentyna Romanenko - Sunday, 1 May 2022, 12:09 The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claims to have apprehended a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group that was preparing to shoot down a passenger plane and blame it on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the international partners supplying arms...

www.yahoo.com

Wouldn't know if that is true, but certainly these kind of "actions" on all sides can't be out-ruled.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Wouldn't know if that is true

I know right? It didn't come from the Moscow Times…

 

[J_P_C]

Hey - first sense making question - thanks, also in regards to "Glider' who however unfortunately never gets tired to bring up the February stats.

There is a vast difference in fighting/combat ability between those irregulars aka LDNR units, newly conscript Russian units and regular Russian units. off course also the respective
Field-commanders and their ability are important to note.

Besides the initial push in February - around 40,000 Russian regular units seeing combat, plus some smaller elements of the LDNR in the Kiev surrounding area (Logistical disaster) supported (not combat) by around an equal number of troops and ca. 35,000 Russian regulars seeing combat in the south, there is no evidence as to what the Russian army is actually capable of in the meantime and lets say from August/September onward. This places the actual strength of the Russian Army in February-March at 70-80,000 men involved in combat
and supported by around the same number = so total around 140-160,000 men. Not taking the main force of the LDNR into account that was in a static role in the east till end of March.

There are presently less then 35,000 regulars involved in combat since end of March - foremost in the southern Ukraine-parts and ca. 15-20,000 in combat on the eastern region. These troops are supported (not combat) by around 60-80,000 new conscript units. Making up a total force since end of March of around 100-135,000 Russian regular and newly conscripted units (the latter more then 60%). The ratio of Russian support troops to combat troops is not anywhere near the US or NATO standard.

Besides Mariupol (understandable) these 35,000 regulars involved in combat supported by larger parts of the LDNR in combat made quite an impressive territorial gain in the southern areas from Mariupol to the West, from mid March till mid April.

So to me Russia is fighting a war towards Ukraine on a very small scale since mid of March- especially after withdrawing around 60-80,000 regular troops into Belarus and the Russian Bryansk area in mid March. If these 60-80,000 are still in the "resting" area or constitute e.g. 50% of the presently assembling 100,000 regulars on the eastern front, I wouldn't know.

If I am correct about the small scale - then Putin and his Army command are taking a 2 year and more approach towards the Ukraine. Big $$$ spending for NATO and the EU, peanut $ for Russia.

The remaining question to me; is the 200,000 men strong LDNR getting better? (after all they have been in combat almost non-stop since 2014), or is it as most members here believe just 45,000 rag tags? And furthermore how many of these 200,000 LDNR in Feb.2022 are now already a part of these assembling 100,000 "Russian" regulars? and the 50,000 regular combat troops? - meaning Russia wouldn't need to bring in any additional troops of it's own - except to cover attrition, but they could rely onto a territorial force increasing it's capabilities and numbers whilst supporting this campaign with a mere 50,000-80,000 Russian troops.

Looks to me like a possible Russian-Ukraine remake of the US failed idea in Vietnam. so exact knowledge about the LDNR is of huge interest - at least to me.

sorry to say so but you are completely misunderstanding military system in russia. You are shuffling numbers without any support in reality - but lets consider you are correct - question is what changed from 2014? - the same "separatist" forces have stalled for 8 years in trench warfare and suddenly... bum... they have organized themselves and started full scale invasion of Ukraine with "small" backup of "almighty" russian army. Your thesis simply doesn't stick together. Just consider this facts - russia is not democratic country, their politicians are stealing incredible amounts of money (and other goods) from their own nation, conscript system in russia is faulty one, almost all conscripted soldiers are coming out from least wealthy part of society - they are not coming to the army because they do love mother russia but because they are starving or they have no money to pay clerk in Voyenkomat for "loosing" their papers. In military soldiers are treated as a cannon fodder by their officers and relations between soldiers itself more reassembling this one known from heavy prisons than from military in western countries.
I like your style of avoiding answer on my question - what is difference between "separatist" (forcedly conscripted soldiers from regions occupied by russia) and russian "regulars" - is it just fact that some specnaz troops are wearing multicam uniforms and regulars are mostly uniformed in "ratnik" scheme camo?? and please not to try to throw more numbers without calling sources ("sputnik" and press conferences of Mrs. Zakharova are not quite credible ones).

 

[Admiral Beez]

I always know when there's no real news to talk about when the tangential fringe takes over the discussion. I'll come back later.

 

[Jagdflieger]

sorry to say so but you are completely misunderstanding military system in russia. You are shuffling numbers without any support in reality - but lets consider you are correct - question is what changed from 2014? - the same "separatist" forces have stalled for 8 years in trench warfare and suddenly... bum... they have organized themselves and started full scale invasion of Ukraine with "small" backup of "almighty" russian army. Your thesis simply doesn't stick together. Just consider this facts - russia is not democratic country, their politicians are stealing incredible amounts of money (and other goods) from their own nation, conscript system in russia is faulty one, almost all conscripted soldiers are coming out from least wealthy part of society - they are not coming to the army because they do love mother russia but because they are starving or they have no money to pay clerk in Voyenkomat for "loosing" their papers. In military soldiers are treated as a cannon fodder by their officers and relations between soldiers itself more reassembling this one known from heavy prisons than from military in western countries.
I like your style of avoiding answer on my question - what is difference between "separatist" (forcedly conscripted soldiers from regions occupied by russia) and russian "regulars" - is it just fact that some specnaz troops are wearing multicam uniforms and regulars are mostly uniformed in "ratnik" scheme camo?? and please not to try to throw more numbers without calling sources ("sputnik" and press conferences of Mrs. Zakharova are not quite credible ones).

Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?

The optical difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 800,000 conscript-regulars etc. have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over.

As for the LDNR - there is far more to this issue then just numbers or your assumptions of them having been just in "trench warfare".
Considerable numbers of them have been very well trained by the Russian special and intelligence branches, in parallel just as certain units of the Ukrainian army by the CIA and other NATO special and intelligence branches since 2014. The question just remains - how strong are they presently and what has Russia in mind regarding a territorial army of which the special sections of the LDNR are the nucleus.
Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!

 

[RogerdeLluria]

• 1,370 Instalaza C-90 anti-tank grenade launchers, an unspecified number of light machine guns and 700,000 bullets
• 1 RG-31 Nyala mine-resistant vehicle configured as an ambulance

España envía una ambulancia blindada y más armamento a Ucrania

El coste del material militar donado por Defensa a Kiev ronda ya los 48 millones

elpais.com

I think a clarification is due here.

The numbers you cite are the contents of the first plane carrying military material. Spain has shipped so far 11 planes with military/humanitarian material. Additionally, coinciding with president Sanchez visit to Kiev, Spain sent a ship with 200 (metric) tons of material (which is reported to be 2x the total material sent previously).

Spain made public the content of the 1rst shipment. However, after that, contents have never been public because of "national security reasons". So probably total military material sent to Ukraine is about 30 X the one reported by El Pais in March.

https://www.europapress.es/nacional...cion-40-caminones-ucrania-20220421145921.html

Initially I though it was withheld from the public so that potential enemies (I can only think about Morocco) didn't know what weapons we where depleting. But the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that actually the reason is to hide those contents from the extreme left party in the government coalition. Some of their member are openly vocal about not sending offensive material.

Regards.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!

Or, you could simply link to your sources so we can learn more.

I personally think that if the Russians are resorting to leavening their own units with Ukrainian conscripts, they got their asses kicked worse than anyone realizes. In that sense, I hope you're right. But I'd have to see a good source before I get that hopeful.

 

[J_P_C]

Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?

The optical difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350-400,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 500-550,000 conscript-regulars have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over.

As for the LDNR - there is far more to this issue then just numbers or your assumptions of them having been just in "trench warfare".
Considerable numbers of them have been very well trained by the Russian special and intelligence branches, in parallel just as certain units of the Ukrainian army by the CIA and other NATO special and intelligence branches since 2014. The question just remains - how strong are they presently and what has Russia in mind regarding a territorial army of which the special sections of the LDNR are the nucleus.
Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!

I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.

 

[SaparotRob]

I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.

I was really looking forward to your reply. You didn't disappoint.

 

[buffnut453]

More gains for Ukraine in the north...wish they could do likewise in the south:

The head of the military administration in Kharkiv has confirmed to the BBC that four districts have been re-captured from the Russians.

Oleg Sinegubov said Ukrainian soldiers have regained full control over Kutuzovka, Verkhyna Rohanka, Slobidske and Prelensne.

"In Kutuzovka, about one hundred people, most of them elderly and children, lived in cold basements for two months without light, gas and food supplies," Sinegubov said. "Today our defenders were greeted with tears".

But while the situation has somewhat improved for people in those regions, the shelling has continued, he said.

Kharkiv, in Ukraine's north-east, was one of the places to come under early Russian assault.


It's unclear whether these areas were actually liberated through military action or if the Russian forces simply redeployed elsewhere.

 

[SaparotRob]

Me stating that what you wrote is almost correct - would now imply that I am almost correct in my regards to assessing the Russian army.?

The optical difference - which you had not asked for, between Russian regulars and general conscript-regular units as well as militia or LDNR is certainly not their uniform or diverse intermixed camouflage patterns or woolen caps and balaclavas but their equipment specifically in regards to their combat-vests and IT harness gear, and at many times even their helmet - whereas the latter is extremely difficult just to judge form a photo. So judging from what you wrote I don't think that you ever served in the Russian army or would know much about the actual inside details first hand. Those such equipped Russian regular troops number around 350,000 of which around 50% is referred to as Putin's praetorian guard. The other 800,000 conscript-regulars etc. have to ensure that wild camels from Kazakhstan don't pass the border without papers or to fill water-puddles in Donbass with their bodies so that the Russian regulars can pass over.

As for the LDNR - there is far more to this issue then just numbers or your assumptions of them having been just in "trench warfare".
Considerable numbers of them have been very well trained by the Russian special and intelligence branches, in parallel just as certain units of the Ukrainian army by the CIA and other NATO special and intelligence branches since 2014. The question just remains - how strong are they presently and what has Russia in mind regarding a territorial army of which the special sections of the LDNR are the nucleus.
Since no-one seems to know that or even aware about this issue - but all are refuting this via asking for proof, well I will just bury that issue altogether and enjoy the usual comments on this thread. Thanks Guys!

Ain't jumping on you. I think you bring up some good points though your sources may be suspect. Russian forces may be better or larger than Allied estimates. That seems to me an historical "fact" (Allies underestimating remaining Axis aircraft for example). One side can't know everything about its opponent. Perhaps you might be trying to sound a warning against "unbridled enthusiasm". That is something I am for. Never underestimate your enemy, although it's getting harder and harder for me at this point.
I do question your posting that considerable numbers of LNDR were "very well trained". RF forces up to this point have not demonstrated the training and capabilities that a first class, competent military should. That is my view.

 

[Jagdflieger]

I would say with 15 years service in Polish Air Force and Navy probably i have slightly more than just general knowledge of most serious threat we have been prepared for. Not mentioning fact that couple years of my service belongs to the transition period when contacts with russians were on more daily basis. If we may stick to the example given by you, looks like NATO training of Ukrainian force is at least 10 times more effective than russian training of the "separatists". Please try to consider such possibility - there are no "separatists" only battle units of the russian army orgenised in majority from the locally conscripted soldiers. Are they different than for example VDV? yes sure. Are russian military in par to the standards of the effective military forces? - no they are not. They are threat? - yeas they are, but this threat is not as big as your beloved numbers may suggest, especially for the air and maritime warfare.

Okay so your expertise towards Russia seems to be somewhat 25 years and more ago - not saying that one or you can't update yourself from 2nd hand information. As for me I was 20 years in the Bundeswehr - Army and Air-force and since 2000 till now active in the military advisor and defense consultant sector. Judging upon joint operation reports from China/Russia and former Soviet republics - the present regular Russian core army isn't that bad at all on the tactical up to Brigade level, but this is also known to NATO.

However less then 40,000 of those fellows were active in Ukraine and even far less right now - so you can make up your own mind as to who these NATO reported BTG's are composed off.
And Russia IMO will not sacrifice their core troops for getting their hands onto the remaining Ukraine - that will be the job of the new territorial army supported initially by around 100 -120,000 conscript-regulars. and about 30,000 regulars. Additionally supported at any given time by never more then 40,000 of the core force.

So to me it is obvious that Russia in a first step is going to setup a sort of independent territorial army with around 200,000 men.

 

[SaparotRob]

I agree that Russia will attempt to build a territorial army.

 

[swampyankee]

Yep. The web is like the bible (and probably all the other religions equivalent documents) - you can always find something to support your position - no matter how totally moronic it is.

If anything I would say there are more losers now than back then.

As a proportion of the population, it's probably unchanged, but the Internet gives them all a bully pulpit. This broader dissemination of falsehoods has emboldened politicians to build campaigns around them.

 

[J_P_C]

Okay so your expertise towards Russia seems to be somewhat 25 years and more ago - not saying that one or you can't update yourself from 2nd hand information. As for me I was 20 years in the Bundeswehr - Army and Air-force and since 2000 till now active in the military advisor and defense consultant sector. Judging upon joint operation reports from China/Russia and former Soviet republics - the present regular Russian core army isn't that bad at all on the tactical up to Brigade level, but this is also known to NATO.

However less then 40,000 of those fellows were active in Ukraine and even far less right now - so you can make up your own mind as to who these NATO reported BTG's are composed off.
And Russia IMO will not sacrifice their core troops for getting their hands onto the remaining Ukraine - that will be the job of the new territorial army supported initially by around 100 -120,000 conscript-regulars. and about 30,000 regulars. Additionally supported at any given time by never more then 40,000 of the core force.

So to me it is obvious that Russia in a first step is going to setup a sort of independent territorial army with around 200,000 men.

i'm fully respecting your knowledge and experience (even consultants are my preferred group of peoples - no responsibility for words and actions) , and yes im aircraft engineer with little bit rusted military experience even i still have plenty friends in Ukraine who are sharing with me their knowledge in a matter we are talking about. Considering my lacks of expertise in this matter, please explain to me your standpoint - lets assume even russia have gained 100% of Donetsk and Lugansk regions - which is not a case - how possibly you may mobilize 200k troops from territory with population less than 1 mln????