"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (7 Viewers)

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Not necessarily. The key challenge with cyber is attribution. It's really tough to positively associate a cyber attack to an entity that has direct connections to the Kremlin. Most attribution statements go along the lines of "with known ties to" rather than explicitly stated "this attack was instigated by General Vlodvlodlvlod."

Attacks could be directly sponsored/directed by the Kremlin. They could also be from a group of patriotic young Russian who are trying to help their country. They could also be done by criminals who just enjoy screwing with people.

Even if the western nations suffer cyber attacks, that usually doesn't ratchet up alert levels unless there's something else happening, and so the cyber attacks are more of an Indications and Warnings thing rather than a redline that, once crossed, leads to further/escalated conflict.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
4) "Others argue that a cyberstrike on a NATO country is one of the few cards Mr. Putin can play and that he may be waiting for a later stage in his campaign to do that.
Click to expand...
These Russians seem to forget that the entire internet, code and the digital computer itself was a western invention. Why do the Russians think they can do cyberwar better? To often Russians (and China) see the buffoonery in America and the West and underestimate the latent power under the circus. Don't the Russians wonder how the UAF with their precision munitions seem to always know the location/timing of Russian generals, warships and airborne assaults.
 

Americans invented the airplane in 1903, but in WWI was reliant upon foreign powers to equip its own air force.

The British invented the tank in 1915-16, but in WWII were hard put to field anything scary until the Firefly -- which was based on an American design coupled with a British gun.

The Japanese didn't invent the torpedo, but sixty years on they had the best fish in the world.

The fact that one nation invented something doesn't mean that that nation retained any leadership in the tech or doctrine involved in deploying it.

The Russians didn't invent the Internet, but that isn't relevant to how they've learnt to use it.
 
Admiral Beez said:
I remain surprised that Russia has not yet destroyed the rail network linking Poland to eastern Ukraine. That should have been a target on day one, but even now Ukrainian trains are bringing tanks, artillery, APCs, etc.
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This is one of the most basic things you need to accomplish in a war, I guess maybe it is just a Special Military Operation after all.
 
We will probably never know for sure. But you can rest assured, no innocent Ukrainians have been killed in this special military exercise. They are all Nazis, or Nazi collaborators.
 
at6 said:
I hope he dies.
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That's a pretty easy thing to understand. The thing I'm thinking about is: The guy he is replaced with is a hard-liner and one who's the intelligence-chief. Somebody likely to be competent. There's been concerns about cyber-warfare attacks for some time. There's been a few so far, but none have been all-out.

There was the Cyber-Polygon exercise based on the premise of a massive all-out cyber-attack on financial-services, supply-chains, as well as the power-grid.
 
I agree with your assessment.

Is there a 100% traceability towards the initiator of a cyber-attack ?
If so then what would be the difference between Putin ordering a cyber-attack e.g towards the power-grid (including the running operations "cooling process" of a nuke power plant) in
e.g. the UK and lobbing a nuke warhead onto e.b. Birmingham?

The same goes for extensive damage to the e.g financial system - it would be viewed as an attack of Russia onto a NATO country - something he is clearly trying to avoid.
So if cyber-warfare towards NATO is conducted it would be on a rather small scale, without really having a worthy impact.
Using it towards the Ukraine might be a totally different ball-game - but presently the Ukraine has already been reduced to a non self-sustainable country - void of any substantial economic output and financial assets.

Is the EU or NATO going to bring up e.g. 150 Billion $ annually to keep the Ukraine and it's 6 million refugees and 8 million people internally displaced afloat? (Ukraine's GDP in 2021
was approx. 160Billion $. in 2013 it was approx. 190Billion$, and in 2015 (wartime) it was down to approx. 90Billion $. So far AFAIK the EU's and NATO's actual contribution in military
and humanitarian/economic assistance since 2014 till today hasn't even reached 20 Billion - and they are already chewing on their fingernails. - There is obviously no money to be made in this war.

That is why IMO, Putin is out for a 2 year or more - attrition war with the Ukraine and NATO, and since mid April this war isn't going to be decided by imminent military capabilities any more. (of which Russia has enough resources to maintain at minimum a status quo). and since May Russia has been increasingly concentrating on attacking the infrastructure of the Ukraine. Financially and economically Russia is prepared and is unlikely to take a hit before end of 2023.

Furthermore there are still Belarus and Serbia who can cause a considerable headache for NATO and the EU. NATO continuing for playing for time will rather work in the Czar's favor - just my thoughts.
 
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Jagdflieger said:
Is there a 100% traceability towards the initiator of a cyber-attack ?
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There's all sorts of way to spoof and falsely attribute attacks, and with operatives located outside Russia, one wouldn't really be able to reliably pin-down a physical location like one could pin-down say a flight-path of an aircraft or ballistic missile.
If so then what would be the difference between Putin ordering a cyber-attack e.g towards the power-grid (including the running operations "cooling process" of a nuke power plant) in e.g. the UK and lobbing a nuke warhead onto e.b. Birmingham?
Click to expand...
Fortunately much of the power-grid isn't generally connected to the internet, but there are smart-grids which are vulnerable to this kind of attack. I'm not sure if nuclear reactors are, but if so, the difference would be that nuclear bombs produce a lot more blast and fire damage.
 
Jagdflieger said:
There is obviously no money to be made in this war.
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War in Ukraine a Windfall for Weapons Industry | Common Dreams

Military contractors "will benefit, and in the short term we could be talking about tens of billions of dollars, which is no small thing, even for these big companies," said one analyst.
www.commondreams.org

For Arms Manufacturers, the War in Ukraine Is a Profits Bonanza

Not even 1 percent of NATO military hardware will actually be used to help Ukraine. But the Russian invasion has provided a pretext for massively increased arms spending — and it’s great news for weapons manufacturers’ profits.
www.jacobinmag.com
 
War has historically proven quite lucrative for a small number while being horrifically costly for most.
 

A Admiral Beez , how is this post "creative"? The only thing I've done is reiterate facts. What does this "creative" rating you've given it mean?
 
Money paid or spend on military hardware via statedebts (or credits) doesn't produce a profit for a country - for weapons manufactures yes, but even for that the Ukraine can't pay for it themselves like e.g. Saudi Arabia or the UAE having a war with Yemen. (So the latter can indeed be seen as a profitable war)
 
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