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Thanks for posting, very very interesting.Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.
February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.
Google translated version
Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета
О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушкахnvo-ng-ru.translate.goog
Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)
Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета
О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушкахnvo.ng.ru
His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.
It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.
Indeed. Here's a Russian army ad. It's nothing about love of country, family and fighting for your fellow countrymen, but instead it's bravado and kicking enemy ass. I choose the former, thanks.That's the difference between them and the Russians. They're fighting for the survival of their country while Russia is "denazifying". To a Russian troop theirs no bin laden or Hitler who can be used as motivation to fight against.
Unfortunate that this guy is not part of Putin's inner circle, for the Ukrainians but also for Russians and the rest of the world.Rather curious that such a free verse could be alive and making such public statements un Uncle Vlad world.
An excellent article whch was written before the combat started. My favourite parts are: -Mikhail Khodaryonok, besides military analyst is a reserve Colonel that serve both under Soviet union and Russia. He is probably one of the guys in the world that better understands what is going on in Ukraine.
February 3, 2022, three weeks before the commencement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nezavisimaya Gazeta published a piece written by Khodaryonok entitled "Forecasts of bloodthirsty political scientists: About enthusiastic hawks and hurried cuckoos", where he explains that the Russian Armed Forces is unable to realistically inflict a crushing defeat against Ukraine within mere hours should military conflict occur, contrary to the assertions of various Russian politicians, as the Russian military would be unable to contend with Western supply of weapons and materiel to Ukraine, unable to inflict the high-precision strikes necessary to decapitate the Ukrainian government, and unable to fight a protracted war against underground Ukrainian partisans in urban combat.
Google translated version
Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета
О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушкахnvo-ng-ru.translate.goog
Russian version (google translate this one if the other doesn't work)
Прогнозы кровожадных политологов / Реалии / Независимая газета
О восторженных ястребах и торопливых кукушкахnvo.ng.ru
His predictions aged extremely well. He was spot on even before the war started. Some pearls form his text:
- No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine.
- Now about the thesis "The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But the following must also be acknowledged. If until 2014 the Armed Forces of Ukraine were a fragment of the Soviet army, over the past seven years a qualitatively different army has been created in Ukraine, on a completely different ideological basis and largely on NATO standards.
- There is no doubt that the United States and the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease, modeled after the Second World War, there is no doubt.
- And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.
It's really a must read. Considering it was written 3 weeks before the war, everything he says has aged like a good wine.
Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.Good for you, and that your kids don't eat that crap. Neither do I.
However, McD is the worlds largest burger chain, and you or I not eating their is irrelevant. Russia makes up 9% or $2 billion of McDs revenue, so McD pulling out of Russia is pretty indicative of how they feel about Putlers illegal invasion and war crimes. That was the point.
Deja vu.It's too bad the garrison couldn't have been reinforced, perhaps by sea or air drop. Such a strategic target should have had a stronger force once rumors of the invasion were clear.
Maybe the Ukrainians should seize Belgorod in exchange? It's only up the road from the Ukrainian front lines.
Ukraine accused of deadly cross-border attack on Russian village
If confirmed, it would mark the first time a Russian was killed inside the country by Ukraine shelling since war began.www.aljazeera.com
It's true, and much better than what used to be our most popular brand, Tim Hortons.Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.
If his heart is strong enough.This blunt assessment of Russia's difficulties in Ukraine is surprising in that it aired on Russian national TV:
LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.
[...]
"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers," Mikhail Khodaryonok, a retired colonel, told the "60 Minutes" talk show on Rossiya-1 hosted by Olga Skabeyeva, one of the most pro-Kremlin journalists on television.
"The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us," said Khodaryonok, a regular guest on state TV who gives often candid assessments of the situation.
He said that Ukraine could mobilise 1 armed million men.
Khodaryonok, a military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper and a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, cautioned before the invasion that such a step would not be in Russia's national interests.
[...]
"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine - it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last," Khodaryonok said before he was interrupted by Skabeyeva.
[...]
"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism: if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you," he said.
"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake - it just looks rather funny," he said.
Russia, he said, was isolated.
"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and - however we don't want to admit it - practically the whole world is against us - and we need to get out of this situation."
Ukraine will get worse for isolated Russia, analyst says on state TV
One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilisation supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated.www.reuters.com
He'll be logging in Siberia before too long, I bet.
When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.Say what you will about McDonald's food (horrible FYI), the coffee is ok.
Never understood why Starbucks is so popular.When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.
Is Snowie ok?
Allegedly, from 12,000 to 20,000 RF troops were tied up in Mariupol until the end of April/early May. Not counting the air force.Do we know how many Russian troops these defenders pinned down? I think that would be the only Ukrainian metric for military success in this story. Obviously the morale boost of their staunch defense is a benefit, though much more intangible.
Weren't the Russians incinerating countless bodies? It's still going to be hard to cover up all the dead from both sides even if most of the Russian losses are from Russia's poorest regions.Agreed. I think Putin (knowingly or not) has staked his regime upon a successful defeat of Ukraine, and explaining a defeat will only reinforce impression that the 15,000-20,000 Russian body-bags arriving home will undercut his alleged competence and support.
I like this one "not Georgians", so typical. Whenever they have their nose blooded, they pretend that it was not the opponent (who was so weak and insignificant) but someone else in the background. Actually, there were Ukrainian experts but they worked along with Georgian crews.By the way, the Ukrainian crews of the anti-aircraft missile forces (by no means Georgian ones) significantly pinched the Russian Air Force during the 2008 conflict.
I was able to get a vague understanding of your post. Me and my rusty a$$ German.PS Herr Jagdflieger…
Wenn du Respekt willst, musst du ihn auch geben. Treten Sie vom Pferd herunter.
When your benchmark is Starbucks, that ain't saying much.
McDonalds coffee (even their barista-made stuff) is crap - worse than their burgers.
I like how the map shows the limited extent of Russian held territory north of Crimea, I assume it's limited to a few highway corridors.
No. If you were Putin, you'd keep all your weak yes-men and buy this guy an arsenic-flavoured coffee.....If I were Putin I would sack all my present advisors and give this guy the job, lets hope he doesn't.