"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

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I mean an all-out attack that would cripple the power-grid, the internet, and knock us into the dark ages.
From my understanding Russia has been doing as much as they can to use cyber warfare against the main countries involved in or supporting Ukraine. Including the front line Nato countries such as Poland and the UK with little success. There are a number of reasons for this including the ability of the different countries to learn from each others experiences. It should be noted that some of the smaller Nato countries such as Estonia have been under pretty constant pressure for some years and have been very effective in dealing with such attacks as has Ukraine.
I know that the UK have considerable experience in dealing with such attacks, and no doubt others have as well. The efforts of most western countries has been in dealing with the attacks and learning what they can. Whilst they have not tended to counter attack, if you have a good understanding of your opponents strengths and weaknesses, then you are in a good position to strike back if needed.

It is true that Russia poses a serious threat, but the resources, skills and technical knowledge of the western countries and other allies across the world dwarf those of Russia, and Russia knows it. Russia also knows that large parts of its infrastructure are very old and vulnerable. The threat should and is taken seriously, but equally it shouldn't be exaggerated.

If you recall the shooting down of the airliner by the S300 missile. Using the resources of a number of Nato countries including Germany the West was able to build a very complete picture of what actually happened

My favourite story in this area. The USA were having difficulty with a Russian cyber attack and asked the British if they could help. We gave them the ability to use the security camera's of the building from which the cyber ransomware attack was being run from. The USA literally could see the people in real time (and is rumoured hear them) while they were attacking the USA.
I recognise that stories have a habit of growing in their size but it is true that at the time Russia was claiming that the cyberwar attacks wasn't them. Saying that it was other people from other countries, that they were criminals who attacked anybody. Biden contacted Russia, told them firmly that it had to stop or there would be consequences and it pretty much stopped overnight. Call it a coincidence if you wish but my suspicion is that there is more than a grain of truth in it.
 
Cyberattack threads are exagerated, thinking Russians can totally cripple the west, but they are unable to solve more mundane issues doesn't add-up.
 
Cyberattack threads are exagerated,
The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO's SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.

 
Both Ukraine and Russia have been using an hellacious amount of artillery. It seems both sides are using up the Soviet era stocks from their neighbors. I'm guessing Russia still has more. Belorussia has been mobilizing to either pin down Ukrainian forces or readying for an invasion of Ukraine. Russia however, has been dipping into Belorussian ammo stocks. That doesn't seem like a good idea. How willing would Belorussian troops be to go to Ukraine with less artillery? Is the Belorussian Army becoming less trustworthy? Will the time for a shake-up in Belorussia be about the same time as Ukraine launches a counter-offensive?
 
Belorussia has been mobilizing to either pin down Ukrainian forces or readying for an invasion of Ukraine.
I don't think the Belarusian people will tolerate Lukashenko sending their sons to die for Putin's folly in Ukraine. They're well aware of the ten thousand plus dead sons Russia's families have suffered. If he does send troops into Ukraine I'd expect to see huge riots of Belorussian citizens supported by disaffected police and soldiers in Minsk, with Lukashenko ending up fleeing for Russia like Yanukovych or pressed against a wall like Ceaușescu.

My guess is Lukashenko will try to walk a fine line, like Franco in WW2, morally supporting his fascist brothers in Berlin and Rome, but looking to survive their use by dates.
 
The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO's SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.

As far as I know there is significant redundancy, so cutting a few cables won't make an impact, other than slowing things a bit due to increased traffic in the remaining cables.
Considering Russian capabilities to organize coordinated operations in the early days of the war, cutting all (or most of) the cables simultaneously enters the realm of science fiction. Although it will be a nice plot for a movie.

Besides, this is getting out of the cyber-attack scenario and becomes an actual physical attack of critical infrastructure. They may as well nuke western datacenters.
 
Besides, this is getting out of the cyber-attack scenario and becomes an actual physical attack of critical infrastructure. They may as well nuke western datacenters.

Right. It's one thing to try to hack a software system, but it's another thing altogether to physically attack another nation's property.

A hack that does physical damage to a nation's property (Stuxnet, anyone?) might be an act of war, but actually destroying a nation's property most certainly is one.

Of course, given the integration of hardware, software, and systems, I don't doubt that bad actors try to play inside the limits of nuance in order to maintain plausible deniability.
 
Putin already requested that Lukashenko commit significant unit strength in Ukraine - 2-3 weeks weeks before the RF pulled out of Kiev. Lukashenko refused. US INTEL believes his refusal is partly due to concern over the potential effects of Ukraine taking the war into Belarus through air and missile strikes, and partly because he does not want to face the same kind of sanctions as those against Russia. The Lukashenko regime is unlikely to survive such an event and Lukashenko understands this. Also, Lukashenko knows that in the event of US/NATO taking active participation in the war (such as a no-fly zone or sending in combat units) Belarus will be a problem that needs to be neutralized one way or another. This is why Putin has offered to give nuclear weapons to Belarus. With nuclear weapons at his disposal, Putin's buttpuppet Lukachenko can make the same threats of retaliation against Ukraine and US/NATO as Putin has.

"Putin promises Belarus nuclear-capable missiles to counter 'aggressive' West"

Dimlee may have better information on the number of Belarus dissidents that have joined the Ukrainian International Legion, but the last INTEL I saw placed it somewhere around 1000. Unhappy people have been leaving Belarus (primarily going to Poland) and signing up for training by the Poles prior to traveling to Ukraine and joining the International Legion. Lukashenko recognizes this as a serious near-future problem.
 
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This is why Putin has offered to give nuclear weapons to Belarus. With nuclear weapons at his disposal, Putin's buttpuppet Lukachenko can make the same threats of retaliation against Ukraine and US/NATO as Putin has.
I can't see Putin giving Lukachenko autonomous control over nuclear weapons. It's only a matter of time before the government in Minsk changes, and there's no guarantee that the new Belarus regime doesn't aim those missiles at Moscow. The more likely scenario, assuming a WMD deployment is at all feasible, is that Putin bases nuclear missiles in Belarus under strict Russian control.
 
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I can't see Putin giving Lukachenko autonomous control over nuclear weapons. It's only a matter of time before the government in Minsk changes, and there's no guarantee that the new Belarus regime doesn't aim those missiles at Moscow. The more likely scenario, assuming a WMD deployment is at all feasible, is that Putin bases nuclear missiles in Belarus under strict Russian control.
If I remember correctly Putin offered to give Belarus nuclear capable weapons, which is very different from nuclear weapons. There are many weapon systems which are nuclear capable, from a submarine torpedo tube, to a large artillery gun, to an ICBM.
Putin I am sure would never give Belarus a true nuclear weapon if only because that would give them a hold over him should the situation change.
 

The commitments have now been made to the point where a Ukrainian defeat will look like a NATO defeat.

I guess that is good for Ukraine as long as they have the will to fight.
 
The way to digitally cripple the West is to cut the subsea cables between North America and Europe. Apparently Russia and NATO's SSNs have been preparing for this eventuality.

And in the coastal areas it can be done without Navy involvement.
 

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