"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

Glider · Aug 28, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
Rusia in need to bring back S-300 SAM batteries from Siria:

Russia Pulls Its 'Syrian' S-300 Missile Battery, Ships It To Black Sea

Russia 'gifted' Syria the S-300 after a friendly fire incident, but it remained in Russia control and now it's heading towards Ukraine.

www.thedrive.com

I admit that its difficult to see this as anything but a sure sign of Russia's weakness'. The S300 is till a noteworthy piece of kit, but it has some well known failings, and to take it away from an ally shows that they have nothing better available and the bottom of the barrel is being reached.

Admiral Beez · Aug 28, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
AFAIK, the bann is for militar ships, not for civil ships carrying military equipment, so...

Well then, that's how the Ukraine navy can get its SSKs. There must be some ex-Soviet submariners in Ukraine who can operate an older surplus SSK. Can anyone spare a Kilo?

Plus LCS and fast attack missile boats.

And tanks…

Come on Turkey, you're part of NATO. If Ukraine falls you might very well be next on Russia's menu.

DerAdlerIstGelandet · Aug 28, 2022

Escuadrilla Azul said:
The ship is already passed and is near the russian coast of the Black Sea. It was loaded in a civilian cargo vessel known for ferrying military hardware for Rusia.

AFAIK, the bann is for militar ships, not for civil ships carrying military equipment, so...

I doubt that Ukrainia can do anything about that but an audacious strike can't be ruled out at all.

But a civilian ship carrying war materials becomes a legit target, shouldn't it?

Lusitania anyone?

GrauGeist · Aug 28, 2022

I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.

wlewisiii · Aug 28, 2022

fubar57 · Aug 28, 2022

At least it got a direct hit on something

Thumpalumpacus · Aug 28, 2022

GrauGeist said:
I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.

Does Russia have the airlift capability for that to be a possibility?

SaparotRob · Aug 28, 2022

wlewisiii said:

I wonder if Russia has any of those those missiles for sale.

Admiral Beez · Aug 28, 2022

SaparotRob said:
I wonder if Russia has any of those those missiles for sale.

According to the comments this is a missile failure incident from the last decade, nowhere in Russia or Ukraine.

SaparotRob · Aug 28, 2022

Killjoy.

Thumpalumpacus · Aug 28, 2022

I heard that was their new pad-to-pad variant, for extremely close-in work.

Dimlee · Aug 28, 2022

GrauGeist said:
I was under the impression that Turkey was inspecting civilian ships and denying passage of any carrying war materials, regardless of flag.

The inspection regime applies only to the vessels involved in the "grain deal".

Admiral Beez · Aug 28, 2022

What do we predict will be the first NATO or Western designed manned military aircraft supplied post invasion to be operated by the UAF? As I understand it, Ukraine hasn't received a single fixed wing or rotary aircraft, combat, transport or civilian from any NATO or Western countries since the invasion.

Ukrainian Air Force - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This link shows one aircraft from a now NATO member, the Aero L-39 Albatros. I assume these were provided to Ukraine before the Feb invasion.

That's it, not a single Western-designed aircraft of any sort yet provided.

In my search I had a look at Ukraine's civil airlines. This appeal from one to the West caught my eye, Flight booking, cheap airline tickets, cheap air flights - SkyUp Airlines.

Thumpalumpacus · Aug 28, 2022

It's about context. The more capable the airframe, the longer the training time, generally. The West thought Ukraine would lose quickly, and so offers of help in aviation were not made, and the Polish thing got stymied early on too. I think they thought at this point that training Ukrainians to fly F-16s or Eurofighters did not have a realistic timeline.

Fast-forward a few months and we see the resistance holding, maybe now there's time to both train the pilots and refurb the donated aircraft.

In short, I think there's a little bit of hindsightium involved here. I sure didn't think Ukraine would last more than a week. But that was before we got this glimpse into the true status of the Russian military, If we'd known the Ukrainians would hold solid north of Kyev, an early training/supply program for the F-16 could have happened ... but of course we couldn't know that at that time.

Greg Boeser · Aug 28, 2022

Remember, the first Western aid offered was to fly Zelensky to the country of exile of his choice.
It took the resolve of a comedian to shame the West into doing the right thing.

Thumpalumpacus · Aug 28, 2022

Greg Boeser said:
Remember, the first Western aid offered was to fly Zelensky to the country of exile of his choice.
It took the resolve of a comedian to shame the West into doing the right thing.

Right, the lack of faith was clear. As the whole shebang kicked off I too figured there'd be no time for anything, so I'm not trying to launch jabs or anything; I was equally wrong.

Greg Boeser · Aug 28, 2022

Well, we were all still processing the humiliating rout in Afganistan.

buffnut453 · Aug 28, 2022

A propos of not very much...but Dear Old Blighty reported that it imported zero, repeat zero, fuel of any kind from Russia during the month of June. It's the first time this has ever happened.

Now, one swallow doesn't make a summer etc etc...and it must also be noted that the UK is far less dependent on Russian oil and gas than other nations in Europe. However, it's a clear step in the right direction.

Ukraine war: UK imports no fuel from Russia for first time on record

Imports of goods from Russia fell to £33m in June, the lowest level since 1997, official figures show.

www.bbc.com

GrauGeist · Aug 29, 2022

Admiral Beez said:
What do we predict will be the first NATO or Western designed manned military aircraft supplied post invasion to be operated by the UAF?

F-16s

I posted a link upthread around last Thursday about the UAF being in discussion with Lockheed Martin this time last year about procuring F-16s.

It seems to me that the Russian invasion has accelerated things.

SaparotRob · Aug 29, 2022

The Grippen seems like a good candidate for Ukraine. I doubt there are quite as many available as F-16s. I wonder if we should send a few, not necessarily airworthy, F-16s just to have ground crews able to familiarize themselves with it.

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