"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (12 Viewers)

[Denniss]

Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.

For those crying to send M1/Leo2 to Ukraine:
Those tanks are 15-20 tonnes heavier than common soviet tanks, engines are ~50% more powerful so require more fuel and the M1 gas guzzler some on top of that.
Ukraine probably lacks recovery, road transport and bridging equipment suitable for those loads (assuming rail cars would not have problems).
The Marshy/Rivery lands in eastern Ukraine may not be the best terrain for those heavy tanks.

 

[manta22]

I think most have already seen this one.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Note to everyone:

If you have a problem with a mod or admin, PM them directly. You don't have to PM another mod about them. We talk to each other, so the mod will find out anyhow.

However, the real point is this: none of us mods or admin are assholes. You can PM us directly with an issue or complaint and we will gladly discuss it as adults. Usually a mutual and friendly solution/agreement is reached.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Germany will send some Leo2 to the Czechs so they can send more of their T-72s to Ukraine.

I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?

For those crying to send M1/Leo2 to Ukraine: Those tanks are 15-20 tonnes heavier than common soviet tanks, engines are ~50% more powerful so require more fuel and the M1 gas guzzler some on top of that. Ukraine probably lacks recovery, road transport and bridging equipment suitable for those loads (assuming rail cars would not have problems). The Marshy/Rivery lands in eastern Ukraine may not be the best terrain for those heavy tanks.

Did anyone ask the AFU if these logistical and terrain challenges are unsurmountable? Much of this war's tank battles seem to take place on/near roads.

I assumed that every German tank from Pzkw.III onwards was designed with rolling across Ukraine (or like terrain) in mind.

 

[fubar57]

I honestly don't know what the hold up is, however, maybe if Canada offered up some Mounties to crew the Leopard 2's they would get sent quicker?

Mounties speak louder than words…

Canada is sending engineers to help train

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387

 

[wlewisiii]

 

[Admiral Beez]

Canada is sending engineers to help train

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387

Good stuff, though the Ukies probably know more than us. I assume we've scraped together every Ukrainian-speaking service person within the combat engineers corps.

 

[Glider]

Given the 62 needs a crew of four vs. three on the later autoloader types - one wonders if the RF has the manpower to fully crew them up? Running them short-crewed might work for defensive situations but in most other respects we're talking quite an old design firing soviet legacy ammunition (115mm rounds only really used by the Rapira AT gun and T-62) manned by reserve crews...... what's the worst that can happen?

*I'm not an AFV expert but even I can foresee some hiccups.

I know little about Tanks but it is possibly simpler to train a man to load shells into a gun, than maintain a (presumably) fairly complex auto loading system which has rusted up

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Canada is sending engineers to help train

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-troops-ukraie-poland-1.6612387

Not the same as Mounties.

Mounties speak louder than engineers.

 

[GrauGeist]

If the RCMP were it's own country, they'd be in the "FAAFO" club (along with Finland, Israel and Ukraine)

 

[Jabberwocky]

I'd assumed they'd all been sent already. How many operational/restorable T-72s (ERA-equipped or otherwise) can possibly be left within NATO's borders?

T-72 and derivatives supplied or committed to Ukraine:

Poland: At least 230 T-72M1, undisclosed number of PT-91 (further upgrade of T-72M1, some complete new builds)
Czech Republic: At least 40 T-72M1, with additional tanks purchased from Bulgaria (thought to be some of Bulgaria's 44 T-72M1s). Czech Republic getting Leopard 2A4s as replacement from Germany
Romania: 30 T-72M1s supplied,
North Macedonia: At least 8 of 30 T-72As, possibly all 30 now supplied

Outstanding stocks:

Slovakia: At least 20 active T-72M1s, with around 10 stored. Reportedly offered to Ukraine, but also reportedly held up over dickering about German support
Hungary: As many as 35 active T-72M1s, with about 80 stored. Active T-72s due to be replaced with Leopard 2A4s and 2A7s. Tanks unlikely to go to Ukraine, due to Victor Orban's dickishness
Bulgaria: Somewhere between 120 and 160 in service and up to 250 stored. Mix of T-72As and T-72Ms. 40+ in service tanks undergoing major modernisation.
Slovenia: 54 M-84A4s in storage. Had been planned to be swapped for stored Marders from Germany. Not sure what happened.

 

[vikingBerserker]

Last I heard of the Marders were the builders had overhauled them and were waiting on the approval from the German government to ship them (or at last some of them) to Ukraine

 

[Admiral Beez]

Outstanding stocks:

Europe, but not NATO. Cyprus has a lot of Russian kit, including tanks. But they're on an arms embargo due to tensions between NATO members Greece and Turkey so won't part with anything.

The Hunt to Arm Ukraine Leads to Difficult Choices

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

We are seeing pretty much the same thing play out now with Ukraine - Russia does not have an infinite supply of missiles and targeting civilian "infrastructure" (schoolyards, apartment buildings, hospitals, etc.) is having little effect on the Ukraine's ground forces.

And the Russians are running through their remaining stocks of PGMs targeting civilians, meaning that when they want to provide air-support for combat forces, they'll be more likely to have to use dumb, iron bombs, with all the danger that implies for pilots and expensive aircraft.

It could well bite the Russians in the ass going forward, especially considering American resolution to provide more and better SAM systems. Hard to do effective stand-off attacks with 250-kg dumb bombs, those pilots will have to get somewhat into the weeds to be useful. Good flying weather will be rare in the next few months, further exacerbating this trend.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

They are wasting their limited smart munitions on non military targets so it's not like they are letting common sense get in their way. Unless the Ukrainians have adequate soldiers already at the border the Orcs and Keystone Cops could force Unkraine to shift solders from the south to the north which I suspect is what they are trying to do.

I think this is the reality behind the matter. The Russians have already lost many if not most of their trained front-line troops who started the war. These new troops, coupled with Belarusian troops, would not be wisely used to execute active ops, given that the Ukrainians already rejected the first Russian drive which was after all composed of their front-line peacetime units.

So this is likely an attempt to distract the Ukrainians from the drive on Kherson, and further advances in the Donbas. I don't imagine the Ukrainians stripped Kyiv itself of defensive units, anyway. And -- now the Russians, with their logistical genius, now have to provide for 60,000 more combat troops on the march on an entirely separate axis of advance?

For those reasons, I think this is a weak feint.

The alternative is that this mass of troops might try to roll up the Ukrainian-Polish frontier in order to interdict Western arms and ammo supplies. That would perhaps be a wiser, but still risky, move, because they're more susceptible to isolation and defeat. It's still very vulnerable to logistical interdiction.

My prediction: they're a big dog-and-pony show.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

'This is not a bluff': Putin has warned the West of using nuclear weapons. So will he or won't he?

What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, and how would NATO respond while still avoiding an all-out nuclear war?

www.abc.net.au

I posted that interview with Petraeus the other day, and it's worth watching in full. I think he's right, that the West will use asymmetrical, non-nuclear, but still decisive force inside the Ukrainian theater to put an end to the invasion.

The potential for nuclear escalation still exists, to be sure. And that's very uneasy.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I posted that interview with Petraeus the other day, and it's worth watching in full. I think he's right, that the West will use asymmetrical, non-nuclear, but still decisive force inside the Ukrainian theater to put an end to the invasion.

The potential for nuclear escalation still exists, to be sure. And that's very uneasy.

In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.

Maybe, maybe not. If the NFZ includes all legitimate Ukrainian territory, Crimea may well fall under that blanket and thereby become indefensible from the Russian perspective.

 

[GrauGeist]

In this case I expect Crimea to be forever lost. The West will settle for Russia out of all Ukraine minus Crimea.

Zelensky has stated that this is "all or nothing", he will not cede one square meter of land to Russia.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Zelensky has stated that this is "all or nothing", he will not cede one square meter of land to Russia.

I hope Zelenskyy is successful. But to much of the world, Ukraine already ceded Crimea in 2014 by quitting the place without a fight, followed by the AFU standing down ever since.