"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (11 Viewers)

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Is a frontal assault the only means for Ukraine to take Crimea? With much of the Russian army dug in on the south bank of the Dnieper it seems that Crimea itself may be underdefended. How about a Ukrainian parachute or amphibious raid combined with destruction of the Kerch bridge and the bridges linking Kherson to Crimea? Of course the lads need to be resupplied once they land in Crimea, likely by sea from Odessa.
 

Does Ukraine have the naval forces able to project power in this manner? I'm skeptical of that myself. Airdrops/airborne envelopment would also face difficulties from Russian SAMs and/or fighter interception, though small, low-level insertions are something they're no doubt capable of executing, given what their chopper pilots showed in the defense of Mariupol.
 
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
Does Ukraine have the naval forces able to project power in this manner? I'm skeptical of that myself.
Click to expand...
Me too. But I often feel I underestimate the Ukrainians. When there is a front assault on Crimea I would not be surprised if there is an assault into the Russian rear, maybe using Ukraine's Air Assault troops Ukrainian Air Assault Forces - Wikipedia and RO/RO ships? UkrFerry - Wikipedia

Black Sea ro-ro operations adapt to the new normal as companies seek opportunities - The Loadstar

War in Ukraine has forced the re-routing of cargo out of the country, creating rapidly changing freight paths and new facilities.
theloadstar.com

"UkrFerry owns three ro-ro ferries, designed to transport rolling stock and trucks, which allowed UkrFerry to gain momentum for the sustainable development of the Euro-Asian block train projects known as The Middle Corridor or the trans-Caspian Route, where Chornomorsk, Ukraine, – Batumi/Poti, Georgia and the rail ferry line was operating."

Ship ANTEY (Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship) Registered in Russia - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311912, MMSI 273252340, Call sign SSD

Vessel ANTEY is a Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship, Registered in Russia. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of ANTEY including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311912, MMSI...
www.marinetraffic.com

Ship KAUNAS (Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship) Registered in Panama - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311924, MMSI 353468000, Call sign 3FAY6

Vessel KAUNAS is a Ro-Ro/Passenger Ship, Registered in Panama. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of KAUNAS including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311924, MMSI...
www.marinetraffic.com
 
From ISW:

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
  • The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.
  • ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
  • Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city.
  • Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
  • Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk.
  • Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
  • Russian citizens continue to oppose Russia's war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military.
  • Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group.
  • Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org

The full assessment is worth the read.
 

It could be possible, but the threat from remaining Russian BSF units would be pretty high, I'd think, and that would have to be considered in any Ukrainian cost-benefit analysis.
 
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