"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

[FLYBOYJ]

What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? The fleet of MiG-29s must be wearing out, but we're years away from F-16s or Gripens.

Meanwhile, some news for the Russians. If only in penny packets.

Su-57 Felon To Enter Service With Elite Russian Air Force Unit

A historic unit in Russia's Far East will be first to receive Su-57 fighters, but until then, its Su-35s are fighting in the war in Ukraine.

www.thedrive.com

And how quickly do think the Russians are going to be able to build these in quantity?

 

[GrauGeist]

And why were they deployed to the far East when they're desperately needed in Ukraine?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? The fleet of MiG-29s must be wearing out, but we're years away from F-16s or Gripens.

Meanwhile, some news for the Russians. If only in penny packets.

Four or five of these ... only stealthy from the front, only a few flying. When you think about it, they're really throwing prototypes into combat. What might that say? Looks to me like eating seedcorn.

I think Ukrainians will be flying F-16s in a couple of years, tops. I doubt there will be any Su-57s flying at that time.

 

[SaparotRob]

Assuming the Su-57 is as good as hyped, it still won't be any more of a threat if the Russians keep it over Belorussian and Russian airspace just to chuck missiles. It's a dogfighter, right?

 

[WARSPITER]

The SU-57 doesn't come anywhere near the latest US planes and can't while the production systems are
still at 1990's levels. The manufacturing equipment used for the F-35 is decades ahead of any other countries
and the production capability is as well.

Tolerances for the F-35 panels are milled so close they can fit together without any special radar absorbing
epoxy - that is with tolerances down to 1/10000th of an inch.

F-35's are currently being produced at around 140 a year but more recent development will increase that
significantly. One newer process is already giving the front fuselage section a production rate of 20 per month.

Russian manufacturing of the SU-57 is expected to deliver another 22 planes by the end of 2024.

2024 is a ways off at the moment but should Ukraine continue the way it is and get to the stage where the F-35
becomes an option for them Russian air capability will not hope to match it.

WWII tanks are a favourite of mine and there is always the argument of superior vs production.
Of course that means the German big cats as opposed to the T-34 and Sherman. When it comes to
the F-35 vs the rest Lockheed Martin have a platform which can be produced at a much higher rate (Sherman)
while at the same time being significantly superior (Pussy cats) to everything else.

I hope to see Ukraine with this kind of capability in coming years as their future security is a long term game.

 

[GrauGeist]

Keep in mind that Ukraine was already in discussion with Lockheed-Martin back in 2021 for the purchase of block 70/72 airframes.

 

[WARSPITER]

Well they are not a flying toy either. Again not good for Russia in the long term.

 

[Admiral Beez]

That's the SU-57 thoroughly binned, but what of my question above? What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? By then the AFU offensives to take Crimea et al will be well underway.

 

[GTX]

That's the SU-57 thoroughly binned, but what of my question above? What do we expect the Ukrainian Air Force to look like by early summer 2023? By then the AFU offensives to take Crimea et al will be well underway.

No different to today. Unless they already have crews training to fly/maintain newer types and it is all being kept hush hush, there will be no new types entering service in the coming months.

 

[Admiral Beez]

No different to today. Unless they already have crews training to fly/maintain newer types and it is all being kept hush hush, there will be no new types entering service in the coming months.

I did read that the British will be sending three Sea Kings. This would be the first western manned aircraft provided to the AFU since the beginning of the war. It's not the Apaches they've asked for, but it's a start.

British Government to Provide Ukraine with Retired Sea King Helicopters | AIN

British government to provide trio of retired Westland WS-61 Sea King helicopters to Ukraine.

www.ainonline.com

I wonder if they're optimized for ASW or stripped out to Commando spec.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Ukrainian forces reportedly reached the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River across from Kherson City. The Ukrainian "Carlson" volunteer special air intelligence unit posted footage on December 3 of Ukrainian servicemen traversing the Dnipro River in boats, reaching a wooden marina-like structure on the east bank, and raising a Ukrainian flag on a tower toward near the shore.[1] Special Unit "Carlson" reported that this is the first instance of a Ukrainian flag flying over the east bank of the Dnipro River and emphasized this operation will provide a springboard for subsequent Ukrainian operations on the east bank.[2] If confirmed, this limited Ukrainian incursion onto the east bank could open avenues for Ukrainian forces to begin to operate on the east bank. As ISW has previously reported, observed Russian fortifications on the left bank indicate Russian forces are anticipating Ukrainian offensive actions on the east bank and have been constructing defensive lines south of the Dnipro River.[3] The establishment of positions along the eastern riverbank will likely set conditions for future Ukrainian offensive operations into occupied Kherson Oblast, if Ukrainian troops choose to pursue this line of advance in the south.

Institute for the Study of War

This page collects ISW and CTP's updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

www.understandingwar.org

 

[RogerdeLluria]

EU citizens freezing to death ..... oh, wait ...

 

[RogerdeLluria]

The West must urgently overcome its fear of provoking Putin

Western leaders insist they will stand with Ukraine until Russia's invasion is defeated but fear of provoking Putin continues to constrain the democratic world's response to a war that has already cost tens of thousands of lives.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[Admiral Beez]

Hopefully the West will learn from this.

What is the war in Ukraine teaching Western armies?

It shows the importance of dispersal, firepower and stockpiles

www.economist.com

Paywall free version: archive.ph

 

[GrauGeist]

This entire "special operation" is straight out of the Eastern Front of WWII and I'm certain that it's being scrutinized by military leaders across the globe.

 

[Admiral Beez]

This entire "special operation" is straight out of the Eastern Front of WWII and I'm certain that it's being scrutinized by military leaders across the globe.

I wonder what Beijing thinks as it eyes Taiwan for its own special operation.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I wonder what Beijing thinks as it eyes Taiwan for its own special operation.

"80 miles of salt-water and a mountainous island on the other side" is my guess. Missiles (of which China has a metric butt-ton) can do a lot, but difficult terrain reduces effectiveness, and there's no replacement for soldiers on the ground.

I myself wonder what lessons Taiwan is picking up from this David-kicking-Goliath's-ass example. Maybe "hunker down, shoot down missiles, and zero in on the beaches"?

And just as important, what does Beijing see in terms of international response? A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would certainly disrupt their own economy. Xi too is relying upon a swelling economy to secure his place in power.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And just as important, what does Beijing see in terms of international response?

I expect the West's united response and its enthusiasm for killing Russians while demonstrably neutering Moscow's nuclear deterrence, is giving Xi pause.

Xi Looks Away From Putin Toward West in World Stage Return

Turns out Chinese President Xi Jinping’s partnership with Vladimir Putin has limits after all: He doesn’t want to follow the Russian leader into diplomatic isolation.

www.bloomberg.com

archive.ph

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

I expect the West's united response and its enthusiasm for killing Russians, demonstrably neutering Moscow's nuclear deterrence, is giving Xi pause.

Xi Looks Away From Putin Toward West in World Stage Return

Turns out Chinese President Xi Jinping’s partnership with Vladimir Putin has limits after all: He doesn’t want to follow the Russian leader into diplomatic isolation.

www.bloomberg.com

archive.ph

Xi wants to use Russia's Ukraine invasion in order to catapult his own country higher. He doesn't, however, want to repeat Russia's mistakes. That's why the sanctions matter.

I suspect that the longer the war goes in Ukraine, the happier Xi will be. I don't think he will squander that advantage with a military invasion of Taiwan.

 

[GrauGeist]

The Chinese rhetoric is that Taiwan "belongs to China" but to any student of history, facts show the exact opposite.

No matter how hard the CCP spins it, China has seen how Russia's spin on Ukraine "belonging to Russia" failed.