"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again."

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If the proper Western tanks were being delivered from March on, they would've been already racking up the kills by 4 months now.
*if* the Western nations knew that Ukraine would be able to resist the Red Army's initial onslaught.

It wasn't until May (ish) that everyone started to see just how inept Russian forces were and by late Spring, early Summer people started to beleive that Ukraine might just be able to win this war.

After Ukraine handed Russia it's ass with their summer offensive, it became clear that providing Ukraine with modern western equipment would have certain survivability.
 
*if* the Western nations knew that Ukraine would be able to resist the Red Army's initial onslaught.

That was not a requirement by any Western nation other than Germany under the spineless Stolz.
Remember the rage of Polish minister of exterior after he spoken with German counterparts. In front of the press, he stated that he asked a rhetorical queation: "Ist das ein witz??" - "Is this a joke??" wrt. German attitude towards helping the victim.

After Ukraine handed Russia it's ass with their summer offensive, it became clear that providing Ukraine with modern western equipment would have certain survivability.

If that was the only requirement, Ukrainian tankers would've been roaming in their M1s, Leo 2s or Leclercs by now. Apparently, not the case.
 
The key factor to helping Ukraine with their success was keeping them seamlessly supplied with equipment they were familiar with.

The M1 Abrams requires over six months training for the crew. Noy sure about the mechanic training course, but still would require essential manpower removed from the front to attend.
Then there's the issue of parts supply, ammunition supply as well as getting the tanks out of storage, tested, inventoried, transported to a shipping point, shipped, delivered, moved from the port to a depot for prep, transported to Ukraine for handover and from there deployed.
The above isn't going to happen overnight.

The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right, unleash the new equipment with well trained crews in an unannounced offensive.
 
This is an interesting snippet. Personally I am undecided on the deployment of these vehicles as they will be vulnerable to any AT weapon. In addition they will be quite large targets and difficult to move in mud.
That said I do not claim to know much about this kind of ground combat

,
Mr Zelensky has also been calling for more military support from Western countries, and French officials said that French president Emmanuel Macron has told Mr Zelensky that Paris would send light AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles to help in the war against Russia.

"This is the first time that Western-made armoured vehicles are being delivered in support of the Ukrainian army," the official told reporters, after a call between Mr Macron and Mr Zelensky. The official did not give any details about the volume or timing of the planned shipments.

View: https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1610711996923809793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1610711996923809793%7Ctwgr%5Ef17943a73d6772713e8ea3c652b9c7234968fdc5%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.secretprojects.co.uk%2Fthreads%2Fforeign-use-of-the-amx-10-rc.40799%2F
 
The M1 Abrams requires over six months training for the crew. Noy sure about the mechanic training course, but still would require essential manpower removed from the front to attend.
Then there's the issue of parts supply, ammunition supply as well as getting the tanks out of storage, tested, inventoried, transported to a shipping point, shipped, delivered, moved from the port to a depot for prep, transported to Ukraine for handover and from there deployed.
The above isn't going to happen overnight.

Dave - war is now almost 11 months old.

The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right, unleash the new equipment with well trained crews in an unannounced offensive.

Western tanks are far better than the ex-Soviet tanks. Especially wrt. crew survivability and 1st hit %.
 
Yes, Tomo, I know the war's length - but at what point did the tide of war shift in Ukraine's favor?

If we look back to WWII, the early days saw the U.S. trying to design a long range bomber option to get at Germany in the event that Britain fell.

Many had doubts that Ukraine was going to be able to hold off Russia.
 
Yes, Tomo, I know the war's length - but at what point did the tide of war shift in Ukraine's favor?

IMO, that has no bearing on when the Ukrainian takers should've went to West to start training on their new gear.
If Ukraine falls in 3 weeks or 3 months - okay, tankers are free to go.
If Ukraine still stands by the time the training is over and tanks are ready - excellent, ship the lot to Ukraine.

If we look back to WWII, the early days saw the U.S. trying to design a long range bomber option to get at Germany in the event that Britain fell.

Rest of Europe in still the NATO land, in case Ukraine falls. Not the case if UK falls back in ww2, and USA has means to reach Russia anyway.
American help reached UK much earlier than USA had a transcontinental bomber.
 
The best course of action seems to me, that keeping Ukraine supplied with Soviet era equipment to maintain the momentum while working quietly behind the scenes to provide training on new equipment and when the time is right,
Agreed. To that end, I'd expect the West and its preferred arms dealers are scouring Africa and the Middle East for every T-72 they can get, for a quick refurb and deployment to Ukraine.
 
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I think the nettle that our dear leaders are loath to grasp is the one that is staring at them in the face.

I doubt that Ukraine will fall. They are now very experienced, and compared to the Russian forces well equipped, determined, experienced and successful.

The west have given them the resources to not be defeated. The problem is that they are not giving the Ukraine the resources needed to win, to conquer the Russian invaders.

For that you different equipment. Ukraine will not win unless they have better armour than Russia, the wheat fields of Ukraine are armour country. T72 vs T72 is not an advantage. They need the longer ranged missile that can really hurt the Russian infrastructure. The current ones excellent as they are, can only do so much.
Ukraine need a lot of air support which they don't currently have. F16's are by western standards almost obsolete, most countries are replacing them, but they are a hell of a lot better than the normal Russian Fighters. I would lay good money betting that there are hundreds in the desert waiting to be recycled.

The war has been going on for 11 months and that should have been plenty of time to get a cadre of Ukraine personnel trained on the F16, M1, Leopard II, whatever. If it hasn't and it does look as if it has, then the West have a considerable responsibility for the war becoming a long draw out conflict. It's almost as if politicians are afraid of success, a stalemate is almost a preferred option.
 
Are you referring to the DANA M2 8x8 152mm self-propelled howitzers? Wouldn't your concern of vulnerability to AT weapons be applicable to any of Ukraine's wheeled SPH? Otherwise, what's so unique about the DANA?

If your self propelled artillery is within range of AT weapons aren't you using them wrong?
No I am thinking about the French AMX 10 RC basically a big armoured car. AMX-10 RC - Wikipedia
 
Agreed. To that end, I'd expect the West and its preferred arms dealers are scouring Africa and the Middle East for every T-72 they can get, for a quick refurb and deployment to Ukraine.

A good idea for the short-term, but this war will go on a while, sad to say, and we'd ought to be looking more at the long-term ... which means planting seeds now for a ripe harvest. We need to plan for that now.
 
Ukraine certainly has something up their sleeve and as has been mentioned before, they keep their cards close to their chest.

The Bradley is a huge step up and coincidently, was designed to operate alongside the Abrams in a compoaite battle group.

So we'll have to wait and see what's going on.
 

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