"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (16 Viewers)

[special ed]

It appears Putin is rapidly assisting in the demographic factor with the loss of many thousands dead and thousands fleeing to avoid conscription.

 

[buffnut453]

From your linked article:

While the wording was deliberately both vague and optimistic, it has been seen by Russian watchers as an obvious demotion for Surovikin – and a sign of Vladimir Putin's increasing anxiety over the stalling invasion, which has been raging since February 2022.

Speaking to CNN about the reshuffle, Mark Galeotti, senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, said Gerasimov had been handed "the most poisoned of chalices. It's now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again".

Aside from the obvious demotion of Surovkin, I believe this could also be an attempt to throw the Russian MoD under the bus for what appears to be a looming failure, in order to separate Putin from the great mistake he's made ... i.e., the blame is not in the decision, but how the MoD executed it. In short, it's insulation.

This has been a trend over the last three months at any rate, once the defeats on the eastern and southern fronts landed home. If their projected winter offensive goes bad, now it's Gerasimov himself on the hook, rather than Putin, is how I read it. It goes without saying that I could be reading it wrongly.

Gerasimov may want to avoid buildings with more than one floor for a while.

I was thinking much the same myself. If Gerasimov succeeds, then Putin can bask in the re-establishment of his status as a genius. If Gerasimov fails, then Putin has the perfect scapegoat upon whom to pile ALL the blame for the war. I can't help wondering if this might be part of Putin's exit strategy....Gerasimov doesn't succeed, and Putin blames him for the entire war before making some kind of face-saving withdrawal.

Also agree that Gerasimov should have his head on a swivel...and not just worrying about Ukrainian military action. There are factions within Wagner Group or Kadyrov's Chechens who'd like nothing more than taking a pot at Gerasimov. For his sake, I hope he has a large, and very loyal, security detail.

Gerasimov definitely needs to avoid windows in tall buildings. He should also avoid any and all personnel taking smoke breaks. I can see the headline now, "Gerasimov Killed in Explosion - Russian MOD Institutes New "Smoking Kills" Health Guidance."

 

[SaparotRob]

Girasimov needs to careful of windows in short buildings as well. He just needs to be careful
I can't imagine the palace intrigue and machinations going on. If someone is professional military, they can't like this situation at all. They're being marginalized. Promotion is taking on the trappings of humiliation and derision. Just sayin'.

 

[GTX]

View: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1613599573955444751

 

[buffnut453]

The US Army has millions of MLRS 155mm cluster rounds in depots that have been taken out of service.

Do you know this for a fact? Not sure any military is in the habit of stockpiling weapons they can't use. The weapons have to be maintained, and that's a drain on resources for a resource-constrained military (and the US military absolutely is resource constrained).

Speaking of law, the US cannot legally export cluster munitions unless (a) the weapon has at least a 99% successful detonation rate, and (b) the receiving country can guarantee that they won't be used in areas where there are civilians. The US would have to change its own laws to export cluster munitions to Ukraine.

And all of that ignores international law on the use of cluster weapons. Ukraine use of them would be a propaganda gift to Putin. Also, let's remember that these weapons would be used where Ukrainian civilians still survive and where, hopefully, some degree of normal life may return once the invading orcs are repulsed. Sowing cluster munitions is a recipe for killing a large number of your own population long after the war is over.

 

[GTX]

Russia says it has taken control of the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar

Russia says its forces have taken control of the salt-mining town of Soledar in eastern Ukraine, claiming its first big battlefield gain after half a year of military setbacks.

www.abc.net.au

 

[GTX]

I can't help but place much of the blame for the coming fall of Solodar upon the West's vacillations and timidity over sending Leopard 2 and other modern tanks to Ukraine in December 2022. If we send Ukraine these tanks now, we are demonstrably proving that the reasons given previously for withholding the tanks (mainly that the AFU does not have the ability/experience to operate nor the logistics to support modern MBTs) were bogus. What could have possibly changed in Ukraine from December when European leaders said tanks were impossible to January when the same leaders are saying tanks are essential?

This pussyfooting around on the part of the West is prolonging this war and costing Ukrainians lives. Let's give the AFU what they need.

I would argue that it was more than just the tanks issue. The Russians would still have pushed here even if tanks had been sent. The comments from the British Ministry of Defence daily briefing earlier this week is telling: "Part of the fighting has focused on entrances to the 200km-long disused salt mine tunnels which run underneath the district. Both sides are likely concerned that they could be used for infiltration behind their lines".

I also find the following comments supposedly from Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin interesting:

"On the western outskirts of Soledar there are heavy bloody battles. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are honourably defending the territory of Soledar,"

"Let's be honest with ourselves. The Ukrainian army is bravely fighting for Bakhmut and Soledar. Reports of their mass desertion are not true,"

Perhaps laying the narrative to defend losses?

 

[GTX]

BTW, some interesting imagery of the mine:

Salt Of The Earth: Deep Inside Eastern Ukraine's Massive Soledar Mines

Russian forces in Ukraine are trying to capture the eastern salt-mining town of Soledar in a sustained offensive that Kyiv's Defense Ministry has described as "maniacal." In 2019, RFE/RL's Amos Chapple visited Soledar as the salt-mining operation was hoping to crack Western markets.

www.rferl.org

 

[GTX]

Wagner Group owner publicly argues with Russian regular army over appropriation of victories

Evgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC [Russian private military company - ed.], has said that his group of mercenaries are "constantly robbed of victories", alluding to the report of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation on the alleged capture of the Ukrainian city of Soledar.

news.yahoo.com

 

[cammerjeff]

BTW, some interesting imagery of the mine:

Salt Of The Earth: Deep Inside Eastern Ukraine's Massive Soledar Mines

Russian forces in Ukraine are trying to capture the eastern salt-mining town of Soledar in a sustained offensive that Kyiv's Defense Ministry has described as "maniacal." In 2019, RFE/RL's Amos Chapple visited Soledar as the salt-mining operation was hoping to crack Western markets.

www.rferl.org

I have visited the Salt Mine near Krakow Poland, they are amazing. I have also been down in the abandoned salt mine shafts under the city of Detroit, I was told we had actually crossed under the Detroit River and were in fact under the City of Windsor Ontario. But the shafts under Detroit are just old industrial relic's, The shafts under Krakow contan some real works of art.

If I were in the area I would be very concerned the enemy could use the shafts like sappers used to do in WWI

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

View: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1613599573955444751

Hopefully the Russians soon feel the touch of the M1 ... "like Iraq".

 

[Admiral Beez]

Hopefully the Russians soon feel the touch of the M1 ... "like Iraq".

Iraqi T-72s and T-62s did just fine against M1s.

The Russian T-72s should perform just as well.

 

[GrauGeist]

Iraqi T-72s and T-62s did just fine against M1s.

View attachment 702397 View attachment 702398

The Russian T-72s should perform just as well.

Photo number two is an Iraqi purchased Chinese Type 69 tank.

 

[GTX]

View: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1613190256395968512?cxt=HHwWgIDTubf_meMsAAAA

 

[GTX]

View: https://twitter.com/Flingan67/status/1613293099941351429

 

[MiTasol]

While we are at it Poland can give me my land s that I hold the title to in what used to be Germany?

I agree with you, though, you can't go back to ancient times and claim lands that have been lost for a thousand years. Otherwise the majority of Europe, North Africa, and the Mide East will be under Rome's control again. Italy says they want their empire back.

No No NO
All that and more is mine (Ghengis Khan)

 

[MiTasol]

I agree the Germans are being obstructionists, but Poland's announcement was that they'd send Leopard tanks to Ukraine once anyone else also did the same. These needn't be the Germans, and could be any Leo2 operator, even us Canadians. I think in this case Germany is not causing Poland's conditional offer, but it's instead a repeat of Poland's debacle with the MiG-29, where they want to be seen as helping but don't want to be seen as taking the lead in arming Ukraine with modern Western kit. Fear of offending Russia runs deep in Warsaw.

You Canadians just need to tell that poser in Ottawa that it would be a great photo op and vote catcher if he drove a Leo across the border from Poland to Ukraine while overdressed in pseudo Ukrainian national costume. You know he will do anything to get cameras pointed at him.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Hmmm...so for nearly a year now, I have been referring to Putin as Vladolph Putler because his delusional war is parallel to Hitler's Ost-war playbook.

I don't disagree here. I call him Putler too. He, however, is not trying to recreate the Soviet Union. He wants to recreate the Russian Empire, and even has compared himself to Peter the Great.

It's all semantics though, it's one and the same to a point, and as far as I am concerned he is Putler.

 

[MiTasol]

And if Spain wants things like spares?

The Spanish should tell the Swiss that they are cancelling all undelivered orders and buying French or US or wherever made goods from now on as Switzerland is pro Putin -- and send the goods anyway.

 

[MiTasol]

I don't disagree here. I call him Putler too. He, however, is not trying to recreate the Soviet Union. He wants to recreate the Russian Empire, and even has compared himself to Peter the Great.

It's all semantics though, it's one and the same to a point, and as far as I am concerned he is Putler.

It looks like Putler is a real word and dates back to 2009

Putler - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I like this bit