"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (3 Viewers)

[Glider]

As evidenced by the Polish Prime Minister's own words it is now apparent that they have not asked permission. They were quite happy to blame Germany for saying No but it seems that they never actually bothered to ask in the first place. Hence my comments about playing games...

My understanding of the process is that you don't formally ask the originating country (Germany in this case) for permission as if they say no there is a certain amount of political embarrassment. What happens is the you first make an enquiry to get a feel for the likely response. Then you make the formal request

Here Poland made the enquiry, Germany heavily indicated that the reply would be 'No'. Poland and others have said that Germany are getting in the way. Germany have defended themselves by saying that they haven't had a formal request. Which of course is technically true, as you don't make a formal request unless you believe the response is going to be 'Yes'.

Now Poland seem to be calling the German's bluff and are saying they may do it anyway, and Germany is saying that they will not say no, or yes, just will not get in their way.

So far so good, but Poland (and Ukraine) will no doubt want to know if Germany will supply spares as you cannot really go to war on a maybe, as a Leopard II is a very expensive Pillbox.

I am now going to go and lie down as my brain hurts, and hope someone can understand the above.

Don't you love politics

 

[Glider]

Not sure how realistic this would be:

Rheinmetall is ready to undertake the modernization of Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks for Ukraine.

Rheinmetall is ready to undertake the modernization of Leopard 1 and Challenger 1 tanks for Ukraine. - War

ubn.news

I like the idea of sending refurbished Challenger 1 tanks. Its clearly older but its still a very good tank. I think a Challenger 1 holds the record for the longest ranged kill in combat.
Jordon had a lot of them which may be available.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

There was a meeting of 50 countries to discuss sending further equipment to Ukraine, and pressure Germany to give approval on 20th January. From what I read, it's not only Poland waiting for approval, but they may be the noisiest ones.

Somehow I don't think that would have happened if Germany were simply 'waiting for Poland to formally request approval'. There are a lot of negotiations that go on prior to formally requesting these things. The formal request is almost the last step in the process.

I doubt Germany would publicly tell the world Poland has not asked if they had. Poland could easily prove they had. Why haven't they?

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

I think there's probably a lot of back-room elbowing being done not only in Brussels but also in the individual capitals for the reason DerAdlerIstGelandet mentioned, the issue of denuding one's own forces before receiving backfill in an evolving situation.

I'm sure there is a lil of everything going on. The truth is probably a lil of everything.

Regardless, more needs to be done.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

My understanding of the process is that you don't formally ask the originating country (Germany in this case) for permission as if they say no there is a certain amount of political embarrassment. What happens is the you first make an enquiry to get a feel for the likely response. Then you make the formal request

Here Poland made the enquiry, Germany heavily indicated that the reply would be 'No'. Poland and others have said that Germany are getting in the way. Germany have defended themselves by saying that they haven't had a formal request. Which of course is technically true, as you don't make a formal request unless you believe the response is going to be 'Yes'.

Now Poland seem to be calling the German's bluff and are saying they may do it anyway, and Germany is saying that they will not say no, or yes, just will not get in their way.

So far so good, but Poland (and Ukraine) will no doubt want to know if Germany will supply spares as you cannot really go to war on a maybe, as a Leopard II is a very expensive Pillbox.

I am now going to go and lie down as my brain hurts, and hope someone can understand the above.

Don't you love politics

Very well could be. Like I said the truth is probably a combination of many things. Regardless I am certain it is political posturing by everyone involved.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I like the idea of sending refurbished Challenger 1 tanks. Its clearly older but its still a very good tank. I think a Challenger 1 holds the record for the longest ranged kill in combat.
Jordon had a lot of them which may be available.

Jordan needs their tanks. How many Challenger 1s would be available from Britain? Does it fire the same ammo as the Challenger 2?

Edit: you might have something here, as per Wiki, Jordan is looking to replace their Challengers, shown below. So, let's load them up.

 

[SaparotRob]

I'd love to see those rolling into Melitopol.

 

[WARSPITER]

It may be that all the politicking is just a blind and there are longer term moves being made.

Supplying Leopard 2 tanks is not an option without a large amount of spares and so on. Perhaps these are already
being produced ?

It has been noted several times in this thread that any offensive no matter what tank is used requires combined arms.
Ukraine is getting artillery and missile support in place but still needs (as per correct previous posters) decent air support.

Are we going to see a timed addition ti Ukrainian forces of both ? Is the public rhetoric also making Russia a bit more
complacent (we don't have to worry too much about them - they can't agree on anything).

As to denuding tank and aircraft parks for NATO members. So what ? Who were they made to stop in the first place and
what does that country have left to attack with anyway ?

Who knows. Damned if I do but I can hope.

 

[buffnut453]

As to denuding tank and aircraft parks for NATO members. So what ? Who were they made to stop in the first place and
what does that country have left to attack with anyway ?

But what about other, non-NATO, defence requirements and priorities?

Yes, NATO exists to deter Russia. But look at where NATO member nations have actually conducted ground combat operations with heavy equipment in the past 30+ years: Saudi Arabia/Kuwait/Iraq, Balkans, Afghanistan. Denuding front-line forces will hinder the ability of NATO members to act in other parts of the world outside the NATO framework.

As I pointed out in my earlier post, removing a large proportion of your front-line force isn't something that's easily fixed. Doing without can lead to years of effort to rebuild combat capability. Just look at the UK's gap between retiring the Harrier and getting the F-35, or losing Ark Royal and regaining a viable carrier capability...and I'm not just talking about getting the kit, I'm talking about establishing a cadre of trained personnel (e.g. deck crew for the carrier). Despite only sending 14 Chally 2s, the UK's senior soldier is warning of operational impacts.

History is replete with examples of opportunistic nations taking advantage when major powers get distracted. If Mum and Dad give up their front-line strength to help Ukraine and limit their ability to respond to other crises, who knows which conflicts elsewhere in the world might start bubbling up? Balkans again? Iran? Somewhere else?

 

[Admiral Beez]

But what about other, non-NATO, defence requirements and priorities?

As I pointed out in my earlier post, removing a large proportion of your front-line force isn't something that's easily fixed. Doing without can lead to years of effort to rebuild combat capability.

Fair points. If/when Canada gives up its Leopard 2s to Ukraine I can almost guarantee we will never again operate MBTs.

 

[Denniss]

Poland has now filed the paperwork for exporting Leo2s to Ukraine and Germany confirmed they got them. Let's see how fast the german politicians work on this.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Poland has now filed the paperwork for exporting Leo2s to Ukraine and Germany confirmed they got them. Let's see how fast the german politicians work on this.

That's going to be interesting. How long will it be lost in the infamous German red tape and bureaucracy?

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

KYIV, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Ukraine dismissed the governors of five battlefield provinces and an array of other senior officials on Tuesday in the biggest shakeup of its wartime leadership since Russia's invasion last year.

[...]

Among more than a dozen senior Ukrainian officials who resigned or were dismissed on Tuesday were the governors of the Kyiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. All five regions have been major battlefields over the past year, giving their governors an unusually high national profile.

A deputy defence minister, a deputy prosecutor, a deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office and two deputy ministers responsible for regional development were among the others who left.

Some, though not all, had been linked with corruption allegations. Ukraine has a history of graft and shaky governance, and is under international pressure to show it can be a reliable steward of billions of dollars in Western aid.

[...]

The purge came two days after a deputy infrastructure minister was arrested and accused of siphoning off $400,000 from contracts to buy generators in one of the first big corruption scandals to become public since the war began 11 months ago.

Russia unleashes missiles at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a rush-hour missile barrage, killing at least one person, the day after Kyiv secured Western pledges of dozens of modern battlefield tanks to try to push back the Russian invasion.

www.reuters.com

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ukraine, like pretty much every Slavic nation has a big issue with corruption. Controlling it is a prerequisite for EU membership, and leading Poland to make strives in this effort, Corruption in Poland - Wikipedia.

Where are Slavs on “Corruption Index” map of Europe?

Corruption index is one of the biggest downfalls of Eastern Europe, after the collapse of old socialist systems and micro-wars between the states the corruption has spread thought Eastern Europe as a plague.

www.slavorum.org

Corruption Perceptions Index 2016 - News

Transparency International is the global civil society organisation leading the fight against corruption.

www.transparency.org

I'd like to hope that things have improved in the five years since the above report was published. Kudos to Zelensky for taking this on - his hands are already full.

 

[DerAdlerIstGelandet]

Ukraine, like pretty much every nation with a functioning government has a big issue with corruption. Controlling it is a prerequisite for EU membership, and leading Poland to make strives in this effort, Corruption in Poland - Wikipedia.

Fixed for accuracy.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I'd love to see those rolling into Melitopol.

Me too. And I think there's some potential for a transfer of Challenger 1 tanks from Jordan to Ukraine. They're likely stored in dry condition, for one.

Germany could propose refurbished Challenger 1 Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine | Defense News January 2023 Global Security army industry | Defense Security global news industry army year 2023 | Archive News year

Defense industry of Germany could propose refurbished ex-Jordanian army Challenger 1 Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine

www.armyrecognition.com

Of course Russian-backed Asad, next door to Jordan in Syria could cause some trouble or regional insecurity to dissuade Jordan from offering the tanks.

If the tanks are offered, I suppose they'd have to load in the Gulf of Aqaba and then transit the Suez Canal. Are there any Suez Canal restrictions or objections from Egypt to moving military equipment intended for an ongoing war? Otherwise they'd need to be shipped via Lebanon, assuming Israel won't help.

 

[GrauGeist]

Egypt does not have the authority to restrict shipping in the Suez, military or merchant, like Turkey and the Dardanalles or Bosphorus does.

 

[Snautzer01]

No but Ever Given made a point. Anyone can.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Tanks tanks and more tanks ....

WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Poised to Provide Abrams Tanks to Ukraine

An announcement of tank deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said, part of an understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send its own Leopard 2 tanks.

www.wsj.com

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

and more tanks ...

View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1617928154454294529