"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (2 Viewers)

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Glider said:
Clearly no one can rule out your scenario. However there are some significant differences today. Russian losses are huge and the ones who survive can and do talk to their families, no matter how much the authorities will try to stop it.

I think it far more likely that he is overthrown openly or quietly. A lot of powerful people have a lot to lose if the fighting continues beyond a certain point and the friction between the private armies and the official army is starting to grow. The pressure from the ordinary man and women in the street will start to build and the two together can be a powerful combination.

From a practical point of view he has lost the best of his army both in personnel and equipment. If this new assault fails, he will have little left in reserve.

This link may help
www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine war: Why so many Russians turn a blind eye to the conflict

Most prefer to let the Kremlin get on with its war, but ignoring it means making moral compromises.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...
as i've said before- many times- Where is a "Von Stauffenburg" when we need him?
 
RogerdeLluria said:
The 47M2 is nothing more that an air launched ballistic missile.
Does it reach hypersonic speeds? yes of course!
Same as basically any ballistic missile. ICBMS reach mach 20+ and so did John Glenn in its first orbital flight. I think at some point Apollo 11 reached mach 30+. Yet, nobody calls them hypersonic.

3M22 on the other hand is supposed to be a hypersonic maneuvering cruise missile, which is what actually can be called hypersonic missile.
And yet I think its highly over-hyped and overrated.

Here is the X-51 Waverider that was tested by the USAF in 2010
View attachment 708323

And this is how 3M22 has been publicized. Basically same image with the B-52 pylon photo-shopped. Pure Russian propaganda.
View attachment 708324

I bet that the real 3M22 zircon looks much less glamorous and so do its real capabilities.
Click to expand...
Forgive me if I don't take that bet.

Go Boeing!
 
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RogerdeLluria said:
The 47M2 is nothing more that an air launched ballistic missile.
Does it reach hypersonic speeds? yes of course!
Same as basically any ballistic missile. ICBMS reach mach 20+ and so did John Glenn in its first orbital flight. I think at some point Apollo 11 reached mach 30+. Yet, nobody calls them hypersonic.

3M22 on the other hand is supposed to be a hypersonic maneuvering cruise missile, which is what actually can be called hypersonic missile.
And yet I think its highly over-hyped and overrated.

Here is the X-51 Waverider that was tested by the USAF in 2010
View attachment 708323

And this is how 3M22 has been publicized. Basically same image with the B-52 pylon photo-shopped. Pure Russian propaganda.
View attachment 708324

I bet that the real 3M22 zircon looks much less glamorous and so do its real capabilities.
Click to expand...
I saw a Storm Shadow missile the other day and I have to say that its the most unimpressive thing I have seen for many a year. Basically a rectangular box with some small wings. I only hope its more effective than it looks as we are going to be passing some over to Ukraine.

en.wikipedia.org

Storm Shadow - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
A series of explosions rang out in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, with reports of two hits within the city, the city council reported on Telegram on Feb. 22.
"Mariupol. Explosions are heard," the city council said in its post.

"So far, 11 explosions are recorded in the Russia-occupied city. There is preliminary information about two hits — in the area of AS-2 (Central district) and Stan-3000 (Kalmius district). Probably in places where enemy forces are concentrated."

Later reports updated the number of explosions to 12.

Mariupol is beyond the range of Ukraine's HIMARS system, and there was speculation in Russian and Ukrainian social media that a new type of long range weapon had been used by Ukrainian forces.

City Hall reported that the first explosion in Mariupol occurred at 10:33 p.m. It said that after the explosions, there were problems with power and communications in the Central and Left Bank districts of the city.

Later, mayor's advisor Petro Andriushchenko reported that a Russian ammunition warehouse in the vicinity of the city's airport and a Russian military base in the Illich Iron and Steel works had been hit. There were reports of secondary explosions, while some of the other explosions may have been the operation of Russian air defenses.

Andriushchenko reported another explosion in the city on the morning of Feb. 22, with locals saying on social media that the blast "set off car alarms" and "shook the curtains."

Mariupol lies more than 70 kilometers from the front line, at the very limit of the range of Ukraine's HIMARS rockets. There was speculation on Russian and Ukrainian social media that the weapon used may have been the Ground-launched Small Diameter Bomb or GLSDB.

The United States earlier said it would provide GLSDBs to Ukraine, but it was not expected they would be available for use by Ukraine until June. The weapons have arange more than double that of HIMARS, at about 150 kilometers.

Other Russian sources later said that the weapon used may have been Ukraine's Vilkha-M heavy multiple launch rocket system (based on the Soviet Smerch system)which is reported to have a range of 130 kilometers.

Like HIMARS, Vilkha fires guided rockets, but guidance is independent of the GPS satellite navigation system.

The Ukrainian authorities have not commented on the reported attacks on Mariupol.

english.nv.ua

12 explosions heard in Mariupol, two hits recorded

A series of explosions rang out in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol, with reports of two hits within the city, the city council reported on Telegram on Feb. 22.
english.nv.ua english.nv.ua

This link was provided to me by a buddy at another forum, and it's not a source I read, so I can't vouch for the report's accuracy, nor the bias possibly inherent in the source itself. But it's interesting that they're targeting Mariupol rather than supply dumps east of the battle raging in the Donbas. Perhaps trying to distract the Russians from another counter-stroke, as they did in August before unleashing their September offensive?
 
taking out smaller tactical ammo dumps is some short-term ammo shortage, taking out bigger strategic ammo dumps may hinder them for weeks. Plus it may force them to move these big logistic hubs/depots even further away from the frontline to stay out of reach.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
The United States earlier said it would provide GLSDBs to Ukraine, but it was not expected they would be available for use by Ukraine until June.
Click to expand...
I like to think that what the media and thus the public are told is only a whiff of the truth. We're told that Ukraine will get a few dozen Leopard 2s…. my guess is Ukraine has at least two hundred Leo2 in action this time next month.
Denniss said:
Plus it may force them to move these big logistic hubs/depots even further away from the frontline to stay out of reach.
Click to expand...
That puts many of them into the sea.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
I like to think that what the media and thus the public are told is only a whiff of the truth. We're told that Ukraine will get a few dozen Leopard 2s…. my guess is Ukraine has at least two hundred Leo2 in action this time next month.
Click to expand...

You can't move that many tanks without people seeing them. Two hundred tanks is a long train & rail is the only effective way to move a tank long distance. And no matter the opsec someone would see that big of a train and blab.

We would use trains to go Graf & Hohenfels rotations because it would be too wearing mechanically to drive them there. We'd roll around during REFORGER exercizes but we never went far from the casern during them.
 
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