"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

buffnut453 · May 1, 2023

A bit more on this morning's strikes by Russia against Ukraine:

Ukraine war: Russia launches second pre-dawn missile attack in three days

A logistics hub in Pavlohrad was hit ahead of a much-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive.

www.bbc.com

Almost hidden away at the end are some additional interesting details about the current situation. Can't help wondering if Mizintsev's firing is due to Prigozhin's video from a few days ago:

In the latest change at the country's military leadership, Cl Gen Mikhail Mizintsev - the Russian deputy defence minister who oversaw armed forces logistics - has been sacked, after being appointed to the role only last September.
There have been longstanding complaints that front line troops are not getting sufficient military equipment, and suffer shortages of food and uniforms.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian official on Monday said the army had ousted Russian forces from some positions in Bakhmut, an eastern city that has been under siege for months.

Admiral Beez · May 1, 2023

Jabberwocky said:
Russian military blogger and pro-Russian social media sources are saying

It can't be fun being a pro-Russian military blogger. Your nation and its military have been revealed to be inept. When Crimea falls to Ukraine they're going to howl.

RogerdeLluria · May 1, 2023

1,500 new and modernised tanks - really?

In March 2023 Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Russian tank production would reach 1,500. But is this claim credible? And could Russia do it?

wavellroom.com

One particular sentence caught my eye. "Total tank losses at the time of writing stand at over 1,900, or the inventories of several NATO armies. Twenty years of industrial effort has been turned into an iron mountain of junk."

Admiral Beez · May 1, 2023

When this war is over I expect we'll see lots of excellent video analysis like this below, covering the Battle for Hostomel Airport, Feb 24, 2022

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0Ji7KqqEqg

Greg Boeser · May 1, 2023

I won't believe any of it until I see it covered by Osprey. Campaign Series.

ARTESH · May 1, 2023

RogerdeLluria said:
1,500 new and modernised tanks - really?

In March 2023 Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Russian tank production would reach 1,500. But is this claim credible? And could Russia do it?

wavellroom.com

One particular sentence caught my eye. "Total tank losses at the time of writing stand at over 1,900, or the inventories of several NATO armies. Twenty years of industrial effort has been turned into an iron mountain of junk."

It's estimated that Red Army has lost around 85000 Tanks during WW2.

1900 is literally nothing!!! They were a fan of quantity over quality policy for as long as I can remember.

Admiral Beez · May 1, 2023

ARTESH said:
It's estimated that Red Army has lost around 85000 Tanks during WW2.

1900 is literally nothing!!! They were a fan of quantity over quality policy for as long as I can remember.

1900 is a lot if you don't have a big number to start with.

The Red Army's losses of 85,000 tanks were out of a total tank Red Army WW2 strength of about 109,000 tanks produced or acquired. Meaning the Red Army lost about 78% of their tanks from June 1941 to May 1945. Looking at today, from what I've read the Russians had 2,500 tanks before they invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. If they have lost 1,900 tanks since then, the loss rate of 76% is close to the WW2 rate. However, unlike during WW2 with massive factories and Lend Lease keeping the Red Army well stocked, today's Russians don't the ability to replace lost tanks with new tanks.

SaparotRob · May 1, 2023

That was then. This is now. The Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. The United States was cranking out an astonishing amount of ships in WW II. Now it takes 10 years to build one aircraft carrier.

ARTESH · May 1, 2023

Admiral Beez said:
1900 is a lot if you don't have a big number to start with.

The Red Army's losses of 85,000 tanks were out of a total tank Red Army WW2 strength of about 109,000 tanks produced or acquired. Meaning the Red Army lost about 78% of their tanks from June 1941 to May 1945. Looking at today, from what I've read the Russians had 2,500 tanks before they invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. If they have lost 1,900 tanks since then, the loss rate of 76% is close to the WW2 rate. However, unlike during WW2 with massive factories and Lend Lease keeping the Red Army well stocked, today's Russians don't the ability to replace lost tanks with new tanks.

I never trusted those "top 10 Army rankings"...

Here is "why". Numbers can be deceiving.

RogerdeLluria · May 1, 2023

ARTESH said:
It's estimated that Red Army has lost around 85000 Tanks during WW2.

1900 is literally nothing!!! They were a fan of quantity over quality policy for as long as I can remember.

1900 was nothing in WW2 but its a lot in 2020. WWII tanks can't be compared to 2020 tanks and Russia 2020 can't be compared to Soviet Union 1945

Soviet Union produced a monthly average of 1300 T-34 in 1943. From the article, Russian Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), states that around 1,340 'modern' tanks were manufactured or upgraded in the period 2000-2020

Frog · May 1, 2023

ARTESH said:
I never trusted those "top 10 Army rankings"...

Here is "why". Numbers can be deceiving.

Admiral Beez said:
1900 is a lot if you don't have a big number to start with.

The Red Army's losses of 85,000 tanks were out of a total tank Red Army WW2 strength of about 109,000 tanks produced or acquired. Meaning the Red Army lost about 78% of their tanks from June 1941 to May 1945. Looking at today, from what I've read the Russians had 2,500 tanks before they invaded Ukraine in Feb 2022. If they have lost 1,900 tanks since then, the loss rate of 76% is close to the WW2 rate. However, unlike during WW2 with massive factories and Lend Lease keeping the Red Army well stocked, today's Russians don't the ability to replace lost tanks with new tanks.

Do not forget the Red Army received 13 000 tanks through Lend Lease.

Zipper730 · May 1, 2023

RogerdeLluria said:
I gave a bacon on your comment, but its for your mother.

Actually, she fully expected this. I thought she was kind of joking, but she wasn't.

BTW: I told her about the "bacon" award and she is flattered.

buffnut453 · May 1, 2023

More resistance/special forces action in Orc territory:

Explosion in Russian border region derails freight train - governor

The region - which borders Ukraine and Belarus - has seen various acts of sabotage.

www.bbc.com

GTX · May 1, 2023

34 injured and houses destroyed after Russia launches early morning strikes on Ukraine

Russian strikes injure dozens, as Ukrainian air defence crews manage to destroy most of the missiles launched on the country early Monday morning.

www.abc.net.au

Admiral Beez · May 1, 2023

How are the Ukrainians keeping their preparations for the counteroffensive secret? The Russians have reconnaissance satellites (hmm.. there were fifteen ASM-135 ASAT produced - time for a MiG-29 upgrade?) that should be able to see any large groupings of Leopard 2, Challenger 2, PT-91s, Bradleys and Marders anywhere in the country, and especially within striking distance of the front line. This many Leopard 2s will get noticed, for example...

GTX · May 1, 2023

Russia hunts for spies and traitors — at home

In wartime repression, the Kremlin reaches for a well-worn playbook to induce mass fear.

www.politico.eu

GTX · May 1, 2023

Pope speaks of secret peace ‘mission,’ help for Ukraine kids

“There’s a mission that’s not public that’s underway; when it’s public I’ll talk about it," he said.

www.politico.com

buffnut453 · May 1, 2023

Admiral Beez said:
How are the Ukrainians keeping their preparations for the counteroffensive secret? The Russians have reconnaissance satellites (hmm.. there were fifteen ASM-135 ASAT produced - time for a MiG-29 upgrade?) that should be able to see any large groupings of Leopard 2, Challenger 2, PT-91s, Bradleys and Marders anywhere in the country, and especially within striking distance of the front line. This many Leopard 2s will get noticed, for example...

View attachment 718705

Russia has 2 problems related to satellites:

1. Do they have enough satellites of sufficient quality? This article suggests not...but it is from RFE which isn't exactly propaganda-free: In Russia's War On Ukraine, Effective Satellites Are Few And Far Between

2. Do they have the imagery analysis resources to exploit the geospatial intelligence that they are receiving? You don't line up tanks in a tactical environment and the more random the deployment pattern, the harder it is for a human brain to detect them.

There's also the perennial challenge of whether the tanks are visible. Put a tank inside a building and can no longer be seen. How many fire stations, garages etc could be repurposed as temporary tank "hides" even in relatively forward areas?

Admiral Beez · May 1, 2023

buffnut453 said:
Russia has 2 problems related to satellites:

It has to annoy Russia that US satellites must be sitting in geostatic orbit or otherwise frequently overhead reporting everything (that Washington wants to share) to Kyiv and NATO.

Russia Says U.S. Satellites Assisting Ukraine Are 'Legitimate' Targets - The Moscow Times

Commercial satellites used by the United States to assist Ukraine in its war against Russia are “legitimate” targets for attacks, a Russian diplomat said Wednesday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Yeah sure they're legitimate targets. Just go ahead and shoot one down.

Glider · May 1, 2023

buffnut453 said:
There's also the perennial challenge of whether the tanks are visible. Put a tank inside a building and can no longer be seen. How many fire stations, garages etc could be repurposed as temporary tank "hides" even in relatively forward areas?

In the late 70's the RAF reportedly used a half finished supermarket as a base for Harriers during one exercise. With the open space inside the building and the car park to launch from it was close to perfect.

"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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