"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (4 Viewers)

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Victory is imposing one's will upon the enemy in such a manner that the ensuing peace is manageable, imo. In that sense, Ukrainian victory may or may not be attainable. I believe they can win on the battlefield, but I'm not sure they can inflict a defeat upon the Russians to the extent that Russian foreign policy will abandon the drive to resurrect the Soviet empire.
 
Victory is imposing one's will upon the enemy in such a manner that the ensuing peace is manageable, imo. In that sense, Ukrainian victory may or may not be attainable. I believe they can win on the battlefield, but I'm not sure they can inflict a defeat upon the Russians to the extent that Russian foreign policy will abandon the drive to resurrect the Soviet empire.
As long as Russia's forces can be ejected from Ukraine, including Crimea I think Russia can thereafter be contained. By 2025 Ukraine will have a larger tank army than Russia.

Goodness this is some low flying.


View: https://twitter.com/kpszsu/status/1658044081866457088?s=61&t=bmtNxWabcsIKJ6TkHkd-SA
 
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As long as Russia's forces can be ejected from Ukraine, including Crimea I think Russia can thereafter be contained. By 2025 Ukraine will have a larger tank army than Russia.

Goodness this is some low flying.


View: https://twitter.com/kpszsu/status/1658044081866457088?s=61&t=bmtNxWabcsIKJ6TkHkd-SA


I hope you're right. We will certainly need to continue military assistance well after this war ... but i wonder how much that might dissuade the Russians to leave off their program of reconstructing their old empire. I think that requires not only regime change, but a change in outlook as well.
 
The question that some people should be considering is what will be the next target if Russia ends up winning this war in any way shape or form - eg Putin would call it a massive win if they just get to keep Crimea in a peace treaty. Remember that Ukraine is the most resource rich ex Russian/Soviet country/state.

So what is the next most resource rich state that was once Russian? Alaska.
 
May 17 (Reuters) - Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was aware of an open letter from Siberian scientists in defence of the men, but that the case was a matter for the security services.

In the letter, published on Monday, colleagues of Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev protested their innocence and said the prosecutions threatened to inflict grave damage on Russian science.

[...]

It said such cases were having a chilling effect on young Russian scientists.

"Even now, the best students refuse to come to work with us, and our best young employees are leaving science. A number of research areas that are critically important to laying the fundamental groundwork for the aerospace technology of the future are simply closing because employees are afraid to engage in such research."


 
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May 17 (Reuters) - Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he was aware of an open letter from Siberian scientists in defence of the men, but that the case was a matter for the security services.

In the letter, published on Monday, colleagues of Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk and Valery Zvegintsev protested their innocence and said the prosecutions threatened to inflict grave damage on Russian science.


[...]

It said such cases were having a chilling effect on young Russian scientists.

"Even now, the best students refuse to come to work with us, and our best young employees are leaving science. A number of research areas that are critically important to laying the fundamental groundwork for the aerospace technology of the future are simply closing because employees are afraid to engage in such research."[/i]

Putin is resorting more and more to Stalin tactics. Who's next on the purge list?
 
Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the Bakhmut area despite Ukraine's apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation, and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the flanks around Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.[1] Russian claims about Russian reinforcements are consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar's May 15 statement that Russian forces are deploying additional airborne (VDV) forces to defend Bakhmut's flanks, presumably from other areas of the front.[2] Russian forces have continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut itself as of May 16, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to claim that Russian forces around Bakhmut are focused on repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.[3] The Russian MoD claimed on May 16 that elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps) repelled 10 Ukrainian counterattacks near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).[4]

Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that Ukraine is pursuing much more limited operations in the Bakhmut area than Russian forces, who appear to be committed to Bakhmut as a renewed main effort. Malyar stated on May 16 that while Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 20 square kilometers of territory in recent days, Russian forces are continuing to make marginal gains within Bakhmut.[5]



The Russians would seem to be taking a big gamble, stripping other sectors of higher-quality troops to reinforce a grinding front with little promise of meaningful results.
 
Musical chairs in Russia.

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The Russians would seem to be taking a big gamble, stripping other sectors of higher-quality troops to reinforce a grinding front with little promise of meaningful results.

This really feels like Ukraine setting conditions for their big offensive. Drawing forces into Bakhmut, and thereby denuding defences elsewhere, is a great precondition before going on the offensive in those other areas.
 
This really feels like Ukraine setting conditions for their big offensive. Drawing forces into Bakhmut, and thereby denuding defences elsewhere, is a great precondition before going on the offensive in those other areas.

Exactly why I think this is such a gamble for the Russians. I wonder which sectors those airborne troops are coming from?
 
Exactly why I think this is such a gamble for the Russians. I wonder which sectors those airborne troops are coming from?

Wherever they're from, it's a stupid move by the Russians. Bakhmut has never been a strategically or operationally significant objective and yet they continue to funnel resources into it.

I just cannot fathom why they're focusing so much on Bakhmut...unless there are political overtones, with Putin fearing the fallout if the Russian military pulls back from the area, gifting Prigozhin another opportunity to undermine his former boss.

Seems pretty clear to me that Prigozhin has aspirations beyond being the boss of Wagner. He's certainly not shy about criticizing Putin...and he has the military muscle to back him up.

Anyone taking bets on the likelihood of civil war in Russia within the next 5 years?
 
Wherever they're from, it's a stupid move by the Russians. Bakhmut has never been a strategically or operationally significant objective and yet they continue to funnel resources into it.

I just cannot fathom why they're focusing so much on Bakhmut...unless there are political overtones, with Putin fearing the fallout if the Russian military pulls back from the area, gifting Prigozhin another opportunity to undermine his former boss.

Seems pretty clear to me that Prigozhin has aspirations beyond being the boss of Wagner. He's certainly not shy about criticizing Putin...and he has the military muscle to back him up.

Anyone taking bets on the likelihood of civil war in Russia within the next 5 years?
Am thinking it's more of a recipe for a 'Night of the Long Knives' kind of episode: starving the Wagner forces in the field of resources to maximize their losses, maybe a few 'friendly fire' incidents on the front lines, then a decapitation to remove Wagner leadership. Followed by assimilation of any rank-and-file into the Russian Army
 
Am thinking it's more of a recipe for a 'Night of the Long Knives' kind of episode: starving the Wagner forces in the field of resources to maximize their losses, maybe a few 'friendly fire' incidents on the front lines, then a decapitation to remove Wagner leadership. Followed by assimilation of any rank-and-file into the Russian Army

But that puts Putin in the role of master strategist....which I struggle to accept.
 

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