Ad: This forum contains affiliate links to products on Amazon and eBay. More information in Terms and rules
There is this:Lukashenka is apparently ill. This makes me wonder who would replace him.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlUyq4A7v-g
Would Belarusians allow Russia to march into Minsk to put a new "president" in place?
There will be riots on the streets. Presumably the small 62,000-strong Belarussian regular army won't be able to hold back millions of citizens, meaning Russia needs to invade Belarus like it did Hungary sixty-seven years ago. But with what, when your army is fighting for its life in Ukraine?There is this:
Belarus opposition told to 'be ready' for democracy push as rumours of leader's ill health swirl
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.www.reuters.com
There is this:
Belarus opposition told to 'be ready' for democracy push as rumours of leader's ill health swirl
Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya told her supporters on Monday to be ready to grab any chance to turn her country into a democracy as speculation about the health of veteran President Alexander Lukashenko swirled.www.reuters.com
There will be riots on the streets. Presumably the small 62,000-strong Belarussian regular army won't be able to hold back millions of citizens, meaning Russia needs to invade Belarus like it did Hungary sixty-seven years ago. But with what, when your army is fighting for its life in Ukraine?
Indeed.If this happens, Putin will soon have another pot boiling on the stove, at a time when his forces are stretched thin. This could perhaps have broad ripples, if indeed it comes to pass.
I'm reminded of Slovenia, at the breakup of Yugoslavia where the Slovenian soldiers were ordered to fire upon the citizens. Being a small place, the soldiers rightly thought their own families are likely in that crowd, laid down their arms and walked. Refusal to kill ones neighbours was a reason Beijing had to bring in outside troops to put down Tiananmen Square, the local troops refused. The 62,000 Belarussian regular army may be willing to shoot their own people, but the 400,000 strong reserve will likely not.Not to mention that Belarusian troops may be unwilling to fire upon their own citizens. That sort of circumstance led to the overthrow of the Tsar in 1917, recall.
Putin. He want all of the original Russia back, and Belarus was part of it. So logic says that Putin will replace him, with a suitable figurehead of course.Lukashenka is apparently ill. This makes me wonder who would replace him.
Interesting times aheadIf this happens, Putin will soon have another pot boiling on the stove, at a time when his forces are stretched thin. This could perhaps have broad ripples, if indeed it comes to pass.
Not to mention that Belarusian troops may be unwilling to fire upon their own citizens. That sort of circumstance led to the overthrow of the Tsar in 1917, recall.
Interesting times ahead
Putin. He want all of the original Russia back, and Belarus was part of it. So logic says that Putin will replace him, with a suitable figurehead of course.
I'm reminded of President Zelenskyy asking that new western weapons be tried out in Ukraine.FEINDEF 2023: CNIM unveils ROCUS future Advanced Mine-Clearance Robot
In the ongoing FEINDEF 2023 defense exhibition in Spain, CNIM, a leading French defense company, unveiled its latest innovation, ROCUS. This route clearancwww.armyrecognition.com
Some old world bolts there.
There are an estimated 600,000 firearms in civilian hands in Belarus. And pretty much every adult male (out of a total population of 9.4 million) not currently in the army or air force is a veteran of conscripted military service. And the women will fight too, so the Russians will be facing at least 4 million Belarusian adults. Upon a Russian invasion, if Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's government in exile and the Belarusian resistance asks for foreign arms, they'll quickly receive them. A Russian invasion of Belarus will not be a walkover. Upon which the Moldovans, Chechens and Georgians will rise up.If reports of Russian troops being redeployed from Belarus to Luhansk are true, I wonder if Russia will have the local forces required to make such a play stick, given the Belarusian opposition? Granted, it could still be a walkover; but it could also represent a widening of Russian Army responsibilities at a time when they already seem to be juggling forces.