"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (473 Viewers)

Seems like the May 9th celebration in Moscow is a little muted.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1655843168225488899?t=_aeljGIkBMg9rm5JDsTZig&s=19
 
Ascent said:
Seems like the May 9th celebration in Moscow is a little muted.

View: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1655843168225488899?t=_aeljGIkBMg9rm5JDsTZig&s=19
Click to expand...


Agreed. No flypast (again!), no modern MBTs, 25% fewer soldiers participating than last year's...and the 2022 parade was 35% smaller than previous years.

Apparently, the parade was smaller this year due to security concerns. If I was a Russian citizen, I'd be asking why we have security concerns in Moscow if everything was going to plan? I mean, really, you're putting 10,000 soldiers on parade and you're worried about THEIR security? I thought they WERE the security.

Usual vitriol from Putin about defending the Motherland from Nazis. His useful idiot Lukashenko was present, along with a "handful" of foreign leaders.

Here's some additional rolling reporting of the event, as well as the competing Europe Day event at which Zelensky is speaking:

 
Last edited:
Jabberwocky said:
I think a large part of it is Zelenskyy knows what he doesn't know.

He's never served in the military, he was an entertainer and then a public servant. I don't think there are any pretensions about him having grand command authority, a la certain little colonels. Although he certainly knows the value of optics (and that can also be a negative when it comes to military matters [Bakhmut could have been disasterous, for instance]).

Compared to Putin, I think he's more willing to listen and trust his military staff, and I also think he's more prepared to listen to bad news. The latter is probably more important, as it allows tough decisions to be made early on.
Click to expand...

The entire war progression proves this to be true. There is no indication that it is not.
 
Interesting snippet from the BBC:

And now, Prigozhin has accused a Russian military unit of fleeing Bakhmut today. "One of the defence ministry units fled and exposed us to the front almost 2km away, but we managed to block it, thank God," he wrote on Telegram.

There are no further details but units don't just flee unless they're being pressured. Is something happening around Bakhmut, perhaps?
 
The few video clips I saw of the Moscow parade suggested it was a very lightweight affair. That view is confirmed by the BBC:

Let's have a closer look at Moscow's Victory Day parade from this morning.
A slimmed-down Victory Day parade in the capital saw only 51 vehicles taking part, according to a count made by the BBC, and confirmed by other analysts.
This is substantially down on last year, when 131 vehicles took part, and 2021, when there were 197. For the second year in a row, there was no flypast. Some 8,000 troops took part.
Most striking was the sight of a solitary tank, and that was a museum piece T-34 dating back to the Second World War. Eagle-eyed viewers could see another two parked off the main square, presumably as spares in case of a breakdown.
The tank was followed by a number of light vehicles, armoured personnel carriers and missile carriers.
Clearly, Moscow has a more urgent need for its military equipment elsewhere.


Only 51 vehicles....that's a HUGE reduction compared to 2021. But it's all going to plan, right?
 
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buffnut453 said:
Most striking was the sight of a solitary tank, and that was a museum piece T-34 dating back to the Second World War. Eagle-eyed viewers could see another two parked off the main square
Click to expand...
Three T-34s? This begs the question, where in the Donbas are the others?

11E6F8B7-7CFE-4961-A544-529970F08FA2_w1071_s_d3.jpg


Laos gave thirty T-34/85 to Russia back in 2019.

www.bbc.com

Trainload of vintage T-34 tanks wows Russians

A train carrying 30 vintage T-34 tanks arrives outside Moscow after an epic journey from Laos.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
And even Ukrainian drones didn't participated? Then that's not interesting parade - the intrigue is absent.
 
buffnut453 said:
Most striking was the sight of a solitary tank, and that was a museum piece T-34 dating back to the Second World War. Eagle-eyed viewers could see another two parked off the main square, presumably as spares in case of a breakdown.
Click to expand...
I've seen pictures showing the two T-34s parked in the back. Most probably this was done to realistically reflect current Russian doctrine. Out of every 3 tanks:
  • One tank (the one that participated in the parade) can move but not fire.
  • A second tank can fire but not move.
  • The third tank is for parts !!!
 
www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Jet pilots talk about the air war with Russia

Ukrainian and Russian pilots are fighting to control the skies. Could Western jets change the war?
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
Admiral Beez said:
Three T-34s? This begs the question, where in the Donbas are the others?

View attachment 720116

Laos gave thirty T-34/85 to Russia back in 2019.

www.bbc.com

Trainload of vintage T-34 tanks wows Russians

A train carrying 30 vintage T-34 tanks arrives outside Moscow after an epic journey from Laos.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
Click to expand...

That photo helps put things in perspective. I count 27 military vehicles actually in the parade in the image. That's more than half the TOTAL number of military vehicles in this year's parade.

Less a parade and more like a drive-by.
 
Escuadrilla Azul said:
www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Jet pilots talk about the air war with Russia

Ukrainian and Russian pilots are fighting to control the skies. Could Western jets change the war?
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
Click to expand...
The UAF needs some AEW. Are there any Gannets available to dust off?

www.key.aero

Newark Air Museum starts Gannet restoration

Ex-849 Naval Air Squadron airborne early warning platform to undergo work at Nottinghamshire museum
www.key.aero www.key.aero
 
GrauGeist said:
Ukraine has better than that:

newatlas.com

Eyes in the sky: NATO's E-3 spy plane fleet watches over Ukraine

The unpredictable nature of the conflict in Ukraine makes it a confusing one from the outside looking in, but Western powers are watching it unfold with intelligence resources that would have been unimaginable half a century ago. Here, New Atlas looks at a key component in these efforts – NATO's…
newatlas.com newatlas.com
Click to expand...
Do you think the USAF's or NATO's E-3s are in direct com with the UAF and able to ID threats and vector fighters?
 
buffnut453 said:
Interesting snippet from the BBC:

And now, Prigozhin has accused a Russian military unit of fleeing Bakhmut today. "One of the defence ministry units fled and exposed us to the front almost 2km away, but we managed to block it, thank God," he wrote on Telegram.

There are no further details but units don't just flee unless they're being pressured. Is something happening around Bakhmut, perhaps?
Click to expand...

I can't answer your question, but this seems somewhat pertinent to it:


May 9 (Reuters) - The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force fighting in eastern Ukraine said on Tuesday he had been told he and his men would be regarded as traitors if they abandoned their positions in the city of Bakhmut.

But Yevgeny Prigozhin said for the second time in a matter of days that his forces would leave Bakhmut if they did not receive the ammunition they needed to press the battle.

He delivered his latest tirade in a profanity-laced audio message which coincided with Russia marking the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two with its traditional parade on Moscow's Red Square.


"A combat order came yesterday which clearly stated that if we leave our positions (in Bakhmut), it will be regarded as treason against the motherland. That was the message to us," Prigozhin said.

"(But) if there is no ammunition, then we will leave our positions and be the ones asking who is really betraying the Motherland. Apparently, the one (betraying the Motherland) is the person who signed it (the order to supply too little ammunition."

He said his forces would stay in Bakhmut and keep insisting they get their ammo "for a few more days".

www.reuters.com

Russian mercenary chief says he's been told to stay in Bakhmut or be branded traitor

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force fighting in eastern Ukraine said on Tuesday he had been told he and his men would be regarded as traitors if they abandoned their positions in the city of Bakhmut.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Hard to say if the bitterness is real or simply theater, but if it's real, the MoD has probably won the power-struggle.

buffnut453 said:
Less a parade and more like a drive-by.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately not a Sadat-style drive-by.
 
www.abc.net.au

'Mauled in Ukraine': How Russia's annual Victory Day parade showed its losses to the world

Russia's annual Victory Day parade is ordinarily an impressive show of military might. This year, a lone vintage tank rattled through Red Square.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
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