"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (8 Viewers)

[GTX]

Ukrainian enthusiasts forge high-end Su-35S fighter into key fobs

The team of aviation enthusiasts at the Fuselage Creations is turning scraps of wreckage from a downed Russia’s most advanced operational fighter jet into souvenir key fobs and selling them abroad. The aircraft is a high-end Russian Su-35S Flanker-E multirole

defence-blog.com

 

[RogerdeLluria]

View: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1659200445951389699

 

[wlewisiii]

Ukrainian enthusiasts forge high-end Su-35S fighter into key fobs

The team of aviation enthusiasts at the Fuselage Creations is turning scraps of wreckage from a downed Russia’s most advanced operational fighter jet into souvenir key fobs and selling them abroad. The aircraft is a high-end Russian Su-35S Flanker-E multirole

defence-blog.com

Fuselage Creations Sukhoi SU35s MSN 07614

Created from the downed Russian Sukhoi SU-34 by the Ukrainian forces. Fuselage Creations got there hand on the fuselage and created a limited 1034 baggage tags. The Sukhoi SU-34 is a Soviet era designed and Russian produced, supersonic fighter-bomber/strike aircraft. Having become the pride of...

partofaplane.com

$186.51 (which really isn't that bad, but my budget has other things to do first. )

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

There are an estimated 600,000 firearms in civilian hands in Belarus. And pretty much every adult male (out of a total population of 9.4 million) not currently in the army or air force is a veteran of conscripted military service. And the women will fight too, so the Russians will be facing at least 4 million Belarusian adults. Upon a Russian invasion, if Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's government in exile and the Belarusian resistance asks for foreign arms, they'll quickly receive them. A Russian invasion of Belarus will not be a walkover. Upon which the Moldovans, Chechens and Georgians will rise up.

I can't say I agree. Not to diminish the opposition, but an organized military has big advantages over an armed group of civilians, no matter how large. Additionally, given Ukraine's current needs, I'm not sure there's much more to pass around in terms of spare arms.

And 600,000 firearms in the hands of unorganized masses may not be as relevant as 80,000 active-duty and a few hundred thousand more reserve troops, police, constabulary, etc with stocks on hand, and orders and doctrine guiding them.

I do agree that Russia already has its hands full in Ukraine, and a revolt in Belarus would be much more than a distraction -- it could lead to defeat in Ukraine for them. Not sure it would inspire other minorities in the Russian orbit to take action, but that's as much my ignorance of their outlooks as anything else. In any event, it would be a major headache for the Russians.

To be sure, an active insurrection against a Putin puppet would have good terrain to work with, given the marshes etc. But we'll have to see if the Belarusians have it in them.

 

[wlewisiii]

Without organization, without high explosives and without resupply by an outside power, armed civilians vs military = dead civilians. An insurrection without at least all three of those and more can not succeed and historically never has.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Without organization, without high explosives and without resupply by an outside power, armed civilians vs military = dead civilians. An insurrection without at least all three of those and more can not succeed and historically never has.

I think organization and resupply are the big issues. Explosives can be improvised locally or even individually, but how to coordinate the actions, and how to keep those insurgents supplied, I think that's the hard part.

On the other hand, there's probably a lot of 7.62 or 5.45 rounds laying around, as well as diesel and fertilizer for IEDs, in Belarus.

 

[MiTasol]

This further reinforces the idea posited by @buffnut453 above that this is a matter of the Ukrainians establishing baseline conditions for the launch of their offensive. I read earlier today as well that the Russians are pulling troops from Belarus and redeploying them to the Luhansk area. If true, this implies these are a contingent of recent draftees now being assigned to guard flanks -- perhaps backfilling the airborne troops?

Either way, it looks like the Russians are in a bit of a scramble to get set for the offensive. Perhaps the Ukrainians could catch them off-balance? One can hope.

Perhaps that also means the Belarussian's can also catch the Russians off balance if Lukashenka dies. Just the loss of Belarus air bases would be a major defeat for Putin

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Perhaps that also means the Belarussian's can also catch the Russians off balance if Lukashenka dies. Just the loss of Belarus air bases would be a major defeat for Putin

Agreed. If that report is true, and I haven't seen further verification yet. I'll dig it back up and post the meat of it so that readers here can decide for themselves, or pursue further research.

 

[swampyankee]

Without organization, without high explosives and without resupply by an outside power, armed civilians vs military = dead civilians. An insurrection without at least all three of those and more can not succeed and historically never has.

Also, it's a vast leap of imagination to assume the bulk -- or even the majority -- of those civilians with firearms would rise up against a tyrannical state. After all, Hilter didn't tighten up gun laws; he loosened them.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Agreed. If that report is true, and I haven't seen further verification yet. I'll dig it back up and post the meat of it so that readers here can decide for themselves, or pursue further research.

ETA: I think I'm wrong about this, because I cannot find supporting info. Perhaps I read it wrong or remembered it wrong, but in any event what I've written previously should be disregarded unless further info comes in.

 

[machine shop tom]

Also, it's a vast leap of imagination to assume the bulk -- or even the majority -- of those civilians with firearms would rise up against a tyrannical state. After all, Hilter didn't tighten up gun laws; he loosened them.

With the exception of the Jews.

 

[GrauGeist]

As mentioned earlier, most adult Belarusian men have military training from compulsory service. They could put up a fight and it would come down to the Belarusian Army to decide whether they want to fire on their own people or do they switch sides?

During the Romanian Revolution of '89, the Romanian Army did just that, they joined the protesters.

I suspect that *if* the situation in Belarus deteriorates, especially if Lukashanko becomes incapacitated or dies, the opposition party will make their move. If the Russians try to intervene, that would be pouring gasoline on a fire.

 

[ThomasP]

I do not remember if I posted anything relative to this so here it is (again maybe ):

From Wiki: "On March 7, 2023, the Kazakh government seized control of the Baiterek launch complex, one of the launch sites at Baikonur Cosmodrome, banning numerous Russian officials from leaving the country and preventing the liquidation of assets by Roscosmos. One of the reasons for the seizure was due to Russia failing to pay a $29.7 million debt to the Kazakh government. The seizure comes after Russia's relations with Kazakhstan became tense due to the ongoing war in Ukraine."

A bit more detail:

"Kazakhstan Impounds Property Of Russian Cosmodrome Operator In Baikonur"

"Kazakhstan's seizure of Russian space assets threatens the Soyuz-5 rocket"

 

[Dimlee]

Without organization, without high explosives and without resupply by an outside power, armed civilians vs military = dead civilians. An insurrection without at least all three of those and more can not succeed and historically never has.

I agree. We remember Hungary in 1956.
Unknown factor here - how many people are ready to take arms. The "soft" uprising in 2020-2021 was impressive in size but many people were jailed or left the country, while the ruling power learned the lessons and strengthened.

 

[Dimlee]

Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months

Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

news.yahoo.com

If only the real training had started already. Or in 2022.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months

Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

news.yahoo.com

If only the real training had started already. Or in 2022.

It will be postwar before the first F-16 squadrons are operational in Ukraine. Presumably they'll be available for the Third Russo-Ukraine War that begins sometime after 2030 - after Zelenskyy has been succeeded.

Ukraine's presidential elections are to take place on 31 March 2024. Ukraine's president is limited to two terms consecutively, and we can assume Zelenskyy wins his second term by a landslide, though a militarily-victorious Churchill expected to win the parliamentary (not executive) elections and remain as PM 1945. Can Ukraine effectively conduct elections during a war? Of course the US held its presidential election in 1944, with FDR winning an unprecedented fourth term - but the US wasn't under daily attack and with millions of its electorate under foreign occupation.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Exclusive: Pentagon accounting error overvalued Ukraine weapons aid by $3 billion

The Pentagon overestimated the value of the ammunition, missiles and other equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, a Senate aide and a defense official said on Thursday, an error that may lead the way for more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defense against Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

 

[Greg Boeser]

Exclusive: Pentagon accounting error overvalued Ukraine weapons aid by $3 billion

The Pentagon overestimated the value of the ammunition, missiles and other equipment it sent to Ukraine by around $3 billion, a Senate aide and a defense official said on Thursday, an error that may lead the way for more weapons being sent to Kyiv for its defense against Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

That's just the usual markup for fraud waste and abuse.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

visual evidence that Russia might be shooting out artillery barrels faster than it can reline them


View: https://twitter.com/aloha9916/status/1659558560802525184

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Most of the pilots/crew members killed in the recent ambush/friendly fire, or whatever it was, where less than 30 yo with only a few a litle over 30 yo (judging by the pictures they actually look really young).
However the average age of an employed US air force pilot is 44 years old and very few (only 11%) are less that 30

It may be a coincidence, but may also indicate that Russia is running out of experienced pilots.