"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (9 Viewers)

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Glider said:
An interesting comment from the UK daily briefing

Russia's military has been experiencing a wave of desertion with reports of AWOLS among soldiers since the start of the year already surpassing the numbers recorded in 2022. The UK Ministry of Defence's latest Ukraine war briefing explores the surge in desertions and suggested the Russian military's issues have probably deteriorated since reservists have been required to be mobilised starting last October.

The MoD intelligence note on Wednesday stated: "Reliable research conducted by independent journalists in Russia indicates that there has been a significant increase in cases of military personnel going absent without leave (AWOL) between January and May 2023, surpassing the total number of such cases in 2022.


"The Russian military has encountered challenges in maintaining discipline within its ranks during its operations in Ukraine, and these difficulties have likely intensified following the compulsory mobilization of reservists since October 2022.

"Data from military courts reveals that a majority of those found guilty of going AWOL are currently receiving suspended sentences, allowing them to be redeployed for the 'special military operation'.
Click to expand...

Numbers that seem sure to rise even further once the Ukrainian offensive opens up. Putting guys who have gone AWOL back on the line seems to invite more desertions when the balloon goes up.
 
Thumpalumpacus said:
Numbers that seem sure to rise even further once the Ukrainian offensive opens up. Putting guys who have gone AWOL back on the line seems to invite more desertions when the balloon goes up.
Click to expand...
I admit I was thinking along similar lines. If the worst thing that can happen to you is a suspended sentence and being sent where you were going to go in the first place. Why not try to go AWOL
 
I wonder how much more "shrinkage" the Russian army will experience. With actual Russian troops being pulled from Ukraine (where "we weren't supposed to be") back to Russia, I'm thinking a whole bunch more will still start melting away.
 
GTX said:
www.atlanticcouncil.org

China, Iran, Belarus, and Armenia all fear a Russian defeat in Ukraine

China, Iran, Belarus, and Armenia all have different motivations for backing the Kremlin, but they are united by a common fear of what a Russian defeat in Ukraine might mean for their own countries, writes Taras Kuzio.
www.atlanticcouncil.org www.atlanticcouncil.org
Click to expand...
If China wants to forcibly take Taiwan they must do it now, not when the 2022-2025(?) Russo-Ukranian War is over. By 2030 the arsenals of the West will be replenished with the latest kit, and its politicians confident in their moral and physical strength. If China waits until the 2030s I would not be surprised if there is a Ukrainian legion based in Taiwan as part of a multinational deterrence. Ukraine's new flagship should be ready to sail and combat-equipped by 2025. Imagine a Ukrainian warship defending Taiwan!
 
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RogerdeLluria said:
Isn't most Russian military hardware overhyped and underwhelming?

I already commented many messages ago that Kinzhal was nothing else than an Air Launched Ballistic Missile with terminal guidance.
Hang an ATACMS from a plane and you have a Kinzhal lookalike.
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It's interesting how different media twist the narrative according to where their support is going.

A couple of days ago the Hindustan Times had a headline along the lines of ;

"Russian Kinzhal's shoot down much vaunted Patriot missiles over Ukraine".
 
Admiral Beez said:
If China wants to forcibly take Taiwan they must do it now, not when the 2022-2025(?) Russo-Ukranian War is over. By 2030 the arsenals of the West will be replenished with the latest kit, and its politicians confident in their moral and physical strength. If China waits until the 2030s I would not be surprised if there is a Ukrainian legion based in Taiwan as part of a multinational deterrence. Ukraine's new flagship should be ready to sail and combat-equipped by 2025. Imagine a Ukrainian warship defending Taiwan!
Click to expand...

Added to that, Ukrainian success bolstered by Western aid also gives the West some confidence that outside support can make a difference.

Don't misunderstand me, the operational context is very different. Getting reinforcements into Taiwan will be much more difficult, but so too will be the Chinese getting fighting forces across a salt-water barrier.

It seems to me, then, that the time to bolster Taiwanese defenses is now, before the shooting starts. Fast-track the F-16 deals, let's look at HIMARs to provide anti-invasion firepower, stock up ammo now on the island. More artillery and rounds for it. Do this before the balloon goes up. Once it does, it's too late to ship anything.

I think Ukraine will still be too busy rebuilding to offer much help, but I also think that the example set by a hypothetical victory there would cause doubt, confusion, and caution in Beijing.
 
WARSPITER said:
It's interesting how different media twist the narrative according to where their support is going.

A couple of days ago the Hindustan Times had a headline along the lines of ;

"Russian Kinzhal's shoot down much vaunted Patriot missiles over Ukraine".
Click to expand...
Well, technically speaking, the Kinzhal did down the Patriot. :lol:
 
From the Associated Press

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner says his force lost more than 20,000 men in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, with about half of those who died in the eastern Ukrainian city being Russian convicts recruited to fight in the 15-month-old war.
The figure stood in stark contrast to the widely disputed claims from Moscow that just over 6,000 of its troops were killed throughout the war as of January. By comparison, official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 Afghanistan war were 15,000.

If they lost 20,000+ men just in the battle for Bakhmut, then I don't think its unreasonable to add another 20,000 for the rest of the war since the start making 40,000 dead and another 120-160,000 wounded and these are serious losses for 15 months of combat. They cannot be far from the USA losses in Vietnam over approx 20 years
 
Interesting that Prigozhin is claiming 20,000 Wagner casualties in the fighting for Bakhmut when Moscow still hasn't updated its figures of 6,000 TOTAL Russian casualties that were released in January.

As reported above, the Wagner pullout from Bakhmut seems to have begun:

www.bbc.com

Ukraine war: Wagner says Bakhmut transfer to Russian army under way

The boss of the mercenary group says it is transferring control of the city to the Russian army.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com


This seems appropriate at this moment, with the deer on the left being the commander of whichever Russian military formation takes over Bakhmut from Wagner: If Ukraine manages to retake the city in short order, I foresee Prigozhin blaming the Russian military commander and using the whole debacle to boost his reputation in his lust for power to become Putin 2.0:

Stock-522273.jpg
 
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Some odd noises coming out of pro-Russian social media accounts about an attack by Ukrainian forces on the airfield at Melitopol a couple of hours ago.

Reportedly at least 1 Su-25 destroyed in the air and some infrastructure set on fire. Russian sources are claiming the Su-25 was downed by a shoulder fired missile, and also that there were multiple detonations at the airfield.

What's odd is that the airfield is least 75km from the front line.

Could just be confused reporting, and the most likely story is an Su-25 was damaged at the front and then crashed while attempting to land. There were at least 10 airstrikes recorded on that section of the front today.

Some sources report the airport came under some sort of indirect fire though, so who knows. Maybe partisans or a deep-strike group with drones or humping a light mortar?
 
Jerad said:
New video with attack on the ship "Ivan Hurs"
Click to expand...
I wonder how badly damaged. USS Cole almost sank from a boat attack. In that attack 400-700 lbs of C4 explosives were molded into a shaped charge against the hull of the boat. I'm not sure the Ukrainian sea drones are thusly capable.
 
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