"All of Vlad's forces and all of Vlad's men, are out to put Humpty together again." (24 Viewers)

[Admiral Beez]

So Ukraine thinks it may have a new peace proposal on the table, with at least some European nations involved in helping shape it:

With a deal on the table, it's a race to hold as much territory before the armistice. To that regard, I've got to give the Russians credit. They take enormous personnel and material losses, mostly while utilizing obsolete and crap kit, but keep on taking new territory while managing to successfully hold a front that is almost two thousand Km long. We may think the Russian meat wave attacks ridiculous, but they get results. Of course Russia's demographics and economics have taken a critical and perhaps irreversible hit, but Putin doesn't care about that.

 

[GrauGeist]

But the Russian territorial gains are fractional, though.

In 2025 (so far), they have only taken about .7% of Ukrainian territory for a horrific human cost.

There is also the matter of Ukraine acvepting an outside peace deal - they have defied Russia's invasion and they will most likely defy any "peace deal" tossed at them as well. It's their nation and they will have the final word.

And most importantly:
If anyone thinks that Russia will honor a peace deal, even after being allowed to invade a sovereign nation and murder it's citizens, guess again.

And while they're at it, better figure out which nation will be next - because it will happen.

 

[Admiral Beez]

And while they're at it, better figure out which nation will be next - because it will happen.

Russia will need to focus on getting the nearby non-NATO countries back under its thumb. The Georgians, Azerbaijanis, Armenians and Moldovans are getting uppity, and then there's Kazakhstan blocking the Russian border crossings. Both Russia and its vulnerable neighbours now know that the USA (and NATO) will not intervene on their behalf, so Putin will begin eyeing regime change and invasions across its south.

After Ukraine, this country could be Putin's next target for invasion

Concerns are growing that Kazakhstan could be at risk of a future Russian invasion, amid claims of the Kremlin's growing influence and signs of a cultural crackdown.

www.abc.net.au

The 'Stans and others will need to look to a new security partner, which obviously would be China; where the latter looks to strengthen its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Kazakhstan, China sign bilateral military cooperation plan

In Astana, the military delegation led by Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun visited the Defense Ministry of Kazakhstan, Kazinform News Agency cites the press service of the Kazakh Defense Ministry.

qazinform.com

Azerbaijan and China signed Joint Statement on Establishment of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership » Official web-site of President of Azerbaijan Republic

president.az

Georgia, China deepen strategic partnership, sign cooperation agreements | Caliber.Az

Prime Minister of Georgia Irakli Kobakhidze met with Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, during his visit to Shanghai, the...

caliber.az

Unlike Trump, Xi will not tolerate Putin stepping on PRC influence or interests anywhere, and he knows China has Russia by the balls. In hindsight, maybe Poroshenko should have reached out more to China rather than the EU, USA and NATO to pressure Putin. To his credit, there were positive beginnings. Who knows.... I expect China will have a role to play with Ukraine's rebuilding and new economy into the 2040s and beyond.

 

[Glider]

I think that in some ways it's Russia who also has a lot to lose in a peace deal and I am not talking about the terms.

If the war was to end now with the current positions there will be millions of families up and down Russia who will be saying o themselves, 'My family lost one or more of their own for this?'

The Status Quo will not save Putin he needs total victory and its for this reason I think he will not sign up to anything less. He is running out of time, and money and is unable to seal the deal. Even the situation in Pokrovsk seems to settling down and to say that this small town is the key success in the whole of 2025. Isn't saying a lot.

Economically, industrially and demographically Russia is in a flat spin and may not pull out of it. China will almost certainly take advantage of the chaos and confusion and Russia's meatgrinder approach will certainly fail against China should push come to shove.
Russia will have no friends and allies. Its biggest supporter is China probably followed by Iran. China will be the adversary not a supporter. Iran has problems of its own ( has anybody noticed that Tehran is out of water) and no government will stay in power if the people are thirsty.

Russia will be out in the cold.

 

[Admiral Beez]

I think that in some ways it's Russia who also has a lot to lose in a peace deal and I am not talking about the terms.

Good points. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people will continue to thrive. As for territorial losses, it's only land if you can save the people. Roughly 25–30% of Germany's pre-WWI territory is no longer part of Germany in 2025, and that country is a powerhouse.

 

[ThomasP]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRcOG4odm7w

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

With a deal on the table, it's a race to hold as much territory before the armistice. To that regard, I've got to give the Russians credit. They take enormous personnel and material losses, mostly while utilizing obsolete and crap kit, but keep on taking new territory while managing to successfully hold a front that is almost two thousand Km long. We may think the Russian meat wave attacks ridiculous, but they get results. Of course Russia's demographics and economics have taken a critical and perhaps irreversible hit, but Putin doesn't care about that.

Pyrrhic victory - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[MiTasol]

Anyone want to work out where the truth lies?


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5PuFj4CtuY

It is easy.

EDIT but stating this truth may kill this thread

 

[fubar57]

EDIT.....

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Good points. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people will continue to thrive. As for territorial losses, it's only land if you can save the people. Roughly 25–30% of Germany's pre-WWI territory is no longer part of Germany in 2025, and that country is a powerhouse.

Land area may have meant something in the XIX century but certainly isn't relevant anymore. But, in some sense, Russia is still a XIX century country.

Metric	Germany	Russia
Area/Size	357,588 km2	17,098,242 km2
Population	Approximately 84 million	Approximately 144 million
Nominal GDP	$5.01 trillion	$2.54 trillion
Nominal GDP Per Capita	$59,930	$17,450

 

[Admiral Beez]

Land area may have meant something in the XIX century but certainly isn't relevant anymore. But, in some sense, Russia is still a XIX century country.

Metric	Germany	Russia
Area/Size	357,588 km2	17,098,242 km2
Population	Approximately 84 million	Approximately 144 million
Nominal GDP	$5.01 trillion	$2.54 trillion
Nominal GDP Per Capita	$59,930	$17,450

Very well put. The challenge will be in rebuilding Ukraine, including reversing its population losses. Pre-war Ukraine, like all of Eastern Europe was already suffering from a demographic decline, with few women having babies. And now, an estimated five million of Ukraine's population has fled abroad, including a high % of women and children. Will these women and children voluntarily return to Ukraine? Those with fathers or husbands in Ukraine most likely, but IDK about the others. Here in Ontario, Canada there are thousands of Ukrainians refugees, and many have settled in nicely. My wife, a 3rd (and 4th) gen Ukrainian-Canadian tells me the newly arrived families were quickly embraced by the local Ukrainian diaspora, with help finding housing, jobs, etc. We don't give a toss for the Syrian and Sudanese refugees, but we're seemingly keeping our new Ukrainians. And then there's Ukraine's estimated eighty thousand KIA and over 140 thousand wounded fighting men that will need to be replaced and cared for. Lastly, there is the scourge of corruption that every country that escaped the USSR's shadow seems to struggle with.

 

[RogerdeLluria]

Very well put. The challenge will be in rebuilding Ukraine, including reversing its population losses. Pre-war Ukraine, like all of Eastern Europe was already suffering from a demographic decline, with few women having babies. And now, an estimated five million of Ukraine's population has fled abroad, including a high % of women and children. Will these women and children voluntarily return to Ukraine? Those with fathers or husbands in Ukraine most likely, but IDK about the others. Here in Ontario, Canada there are thousands of Ukrainians refugees, and many have settled in nicely. My wife, a 3rd (and 4th) gen Ukrainian-Canadian tells me the newly arrived families were quickly embraced by the local Ukrainian diaspora, with help finding housing, jobs, etc. We don't give a toss for the Syrian and Sudanese refugees, but we're seemingly keeping our new Ukrainians. And then there's Ukraine's estimated eighty thousand KIA and over 140 thousand wounded fighting men that will need to be replaced and cared for. Lastly, there is the scourge of corruption that every country that escaped the USSR's shadow seems to struggle with.

The situation in Ukraine is dramatic.

Population was estimated to be 41 to 44 million before the war.
≈5.7 to 6.9 million Ukrainians are estimated to be displaced abroad as refugees
It is also estimated that 1.2 to 1.5 million Ukrainians have been displaced or deported to Russia.
≈3 to 3.5 million people are estimated to be currently living under Russian occupation

According to some estimates only 29 million live currently under Ukrainian controlled territory.

 

[Admiral Beez]

According to some estimates only 29 million live currently under Ukrainian controlled territory.

There's more people living in Shanghai than all of Ukraine. Of course there are many countries with fewer people, but they'll need some serious manpower to rebuild. After WW2, Germany brought thousands of Turks as guest workers, who never left. Ideally Ukraine will offer a successful incentive for Ukrainians who fled abroad to return. Meanwhile...

Ukrainian Men Approaching Military Age Are Fleeing in Droves

A new policy has led to an exodus of male citizens. Will they return if the war ends?

www.newyorker.com

Paywall free: https://archive.is/HtvTj

 

[GTX]

Some good commentary here, especially when he compares Ukraine's fight to the American Revolution:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wMCTv_9alQ

 

[GTX]

View: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1993630025841799499?s=20

 

[GTX]

Tangentially related:


View: https://x.com/PaulConRO/status/1993687552339906619?s=20

 

[GTX]

Ukrainian Pilot: French Mirage proving highly effective

A Ukrainian Mirage 2000 Pilot described the aircraft’s performance and the growing need for additional Western support during a rare on-camera interview from an operational airfield. With only a small number of Mirage 2000 fighters now serving in the Air

defence-blog.com

 

[GTX]

Russia Shifts Drone Strategy, Increasing Usage Of Reusable Drones

Russia is moving away from one-time use drones, favoring reusable drones for strike and intercept missions. This is most likely due to supply chain challenges.

www.forbes.com

 

[GTX]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtBk0LeCRP4

 

[GTX]

Airpower Security Guarantees: A Means Of Lasting Peace In Ukraine

No peace agreement in Ukraine can endure without credible security guarantees, and nowhere are those guarantees more essential—and vulnerable—than in the air.

www.forbes.com